The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate.PBOC injects 1bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The PBOC’s recent actions signal a cautious approach to yuan stability amid global volatility. Injecting 1 billion yuan via reverse repos while maintaining the interest rate at 1.4% suggests they’re trying to manage liquidity without aggressive rate changes. This move could stabilize the yuan, but traders should be wary of the +/- 2% fluctuation range. If the yuan approaches the upper or lower limits, expect increased volatility. This could impact forex pairs like USD/CNY, where traders might see significant movements based on market sentiment and geopolitical factors. Keep an eye on the broader economic indicators, especially trade data and inflation rates, as they could influence the PBOC’s future decisions. Here’s the thing: while the PBOC is trying to maintain control, any unexpected economic data could lead to rapid shifts in the yuan’s value. Watch for any signs of intervention or changes in policy that could affect liquidity and volatility in the forex market. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the USD/CNY pair closely; any movement towards the yuan’s +/- 2% limit could trigger significant trading opportunities.

Its difficult not to read nefarious motives into comments from senior US officials given the stink of insider trading within the administration. Vance says progress made in Iran talks, sees path to broader dealBut, leaving that aside for now, Vance has been a tailwind for risk. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Recent comments from US officials hint at potential insider trading, raising eyebrows among traders. This kind of speculation can create volatility, especially in risk-sensitive markets. If the talks with Iran progress, we could see a shift in sentiment that impacts oil prices and broader market indices. Traders should be on alert for any sudden moves, particularly in energy stocks and commodities, as these sectors are often the first to react to geopolitical developments. But here’s the flip side: while some might view this as a negative signal, it could also present buying opportunities if the market overreacts to the news. If risk appetite increases, we might see a rally in equities, especially in sectors tied to energy and international trade. Keep an eye on key levels in the S&P 500 and oil futures; a break above recent highs could indicate a strong bullish trend. Watch for any official announcements or developments in the Iran talks over the coming weeks, as these could serve as catalysts for market movement. 📮 Takeaway Monitor developments in the Iran talks closely; a positive outcome could trigger significant moves in oil and equities, especially if key resistance levels are breached.

Australian business confidence collapses as energy shock crushes outlook.Earlier:RBA’s Hauser warns of stagflation risk as energy shock hits economy. says not sure interest rates are at the right level to tame inflation, adds rates need to bring inflation to the 2-3% target and that Q2 headline inflation is around 5% due to fuel costsSummary:Business confidence plunges to -29 (from 0 prior). Drops to its lowest since the pandemic. Second largest monthly drop on record Business conditions down to +6 (prior +7) Sales ease slightly (+11 vs +12) Profits fall to +1 (from +4) Cost pressures surge, margins squeezedAustralian business confidence collapsed in March, posting one of the sharpest deteriorations on record as firms reacted to the economic shock stemming from the Iran war and surging energy prices.The NAB Business Confidence Index plunged 29 points to -29 in March, down from 0 in February. The scale of the decline ranks as the second largest monthly fall in the survey’s history, comparable to periods of acute financial stress, and signals a rapid and broad-based deterioration in sentiment across the business sector.In contrast, business conditions held steady at +6, highlighting a growing disconnect between current activity and forward-looking expectations. While firms are still reporting reasonable operating conditions, confidence has collapsed as they brace for a more challenging environment ahead.Underlying details point to mounting cost pressures and margin compression. Sales eased slightly but remained relatively firm at +11, down from +12, while profitability deteriorated more sharply, with the profits index falling to +1 from +4. This suggests businesses are increasingly struggling to absorb rising input costs.Purchase costs surged at a quarterly pace of 3%, driven in part by higher energy prices, but firms appear to be finding it difficult to pass these increases through to consumers. Retail price growth slowed to 0.5% from 0.9%, indicating limited pricing power and intensifying pressure on margins.The backdrop is further complicated by tighter monetary policy, with the RBA having raised rates again in March to 4.1%, alongside expectations that fuel-driven inflation could push headline CPI toward 5% in the second quarter.Taken together, the data paints a stark picture, businesses are still operating at reasonable levels today, but confidence has effectively collapsed as firms anticipate a sharp deterioration in conditions ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Australian business confidence is plummeting, and here’s why that’s crucial for traders: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Hauser’s warning about stagflation signals a potential economic downturn, which could lead to increased volatility in both forex and commodity markets. With headline inflation at 5% and the RBA uncertain about interest rates, traders should brace for possible rate adjustments that could impact the AUD significantly. If energy prices continue to rise, we might see a further decline in business sentiment, which could trigger a bearish trend in the Australian dollar against major currencies like the USD. Look for key technical levels around recent support and resistance zones. If the AUD/USD breaks below a critical support level, it could indicate a stronger bearish sentiment. Keep an eye on the upcoming inflation reports and any comments from the RBA, as these will be pivotal in shaping market expectations. The real story here is how these economic indicators could ripple through related markets, particularly commodities tied to energy prices, which are already under pressure. Traders should monitor the energy sector closely for potential trading opportunities or hedges against the AUD’s movements. 📮 Takeaway Watch for AUD/USD to break below key support levels; a bearish trend could intensify if inflation remains high and business confidence continues to falter.

HSBC warns energy shock will persist without Middle East peace deal.Summary:HSBC warns peace deal key to restoring energy flows Oil near $100 as Hormuz disruption persists ~10mb/d supply already impacted, more at risk Energy-driven inflation seen rising Growth outlook increasingly uncertain Central banks may stay on holdHSBC Chair Brendan Nelson warned that restoring global energy flows hinges on a peace agreement in the Middle East, with the ongoing conflict posing a growing risk to inflation and global growth.Speaking at the HSBC Global Investment Summit in Hong Kong, reported by Reuters, Nelson said energy markets will remain under pressure for as long as geopolitical uncertainty persists. Oil prices have surged since the Iran conflict began and are holding near $100 per barrel, reflecting sustained concerns over supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows.Nelson cautioned that current forecasts for global growth, trade, and inflation should be treated with care, as the full economic impact of the conflict has yet to materialise. He highlighted the risk that prolonged disruption will amplify second-round effects, with higher energy costs feeding into broader inflation while simultaneously weighing on economic activity.The outlook for policy is also shifting. Nelson suggested that tighter financial conditions—driven by higher market rates—could keep central banks in the United States, Europe, and the United Kingdom on hold this year, even as inflation risks remain elevated.The backdrop has been further complicated by the breakdown in diplomatic efforts and the escalation in maritime tensions. The U.S. Navy has moved to enforce a blockade around the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying concerns over supply.Analysts estimate that around 10 million barrels per day of crude supply have already been effectively removed from the market, with the potential for an additional 3 to 4 million barrels per day to be curtailed if the blockade persists.Overall, Nelson’s remarks underline a fragile global outlook, where energy market disruption is increasingly shaping inflation dynamics and constraining growth prospects. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight HSBC’s warning about ongoing energy shocks is a wake-up call for traders: the oil market’s volatility isn’t going away anytime soon. With oil prices hovering near $100 and disruptions in the Hormuz Strait affecting around 10 million barrels per day, the implications for inflation and growth are significant. Traders should be cautious as energy-driven inflation could push central banks to maintain or even tighten their stances, impacting everything from equities to forex pairs. If peace isn’t achieved in the Middle East, expect further supply risks, which could lead to a spike in oil prices and broader market instability. Keep an eye on key technical levels in oil; a sustained break above $100 could trigger more aggressive buying, while a drop below recent support levels may signal a correction. On the flip side, if a peace deal is reached, we could see a rapid decline in oil prices, which would shift market sentiment significantly. Watch for any news on diplomatic efforts and be ready to adjust positions accordingly. 📮 Takeaway Monitor oil prices closely; a sustained break above $100 could lead to increased volatility across markets, while peace talks could shift sentiment dramatically.

China’s yuan-denominated imports rose 19.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, while exports increased 11.9%, according to customs data.Total trade (imports + exports) exceeded CNY 11 trillion for the first time on record, with growth marking the strongest pace in five years. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight China’s trade data just hit a record, and here’s why that matters: The 19.6% surge in yuan-denominated imports and 11.9% rise in exports signal a robust recovery in demand, which could influence global commodity prices and currency pairs. Traders should pay attention to how this affects the yuan’s strength against the dollar, especially if the CNY starts to gain traction. A strong yuan could lead to increased purchasing power for Chinese consumers, potentially boosting demand for foreign goods and impacting currencies like the AUD and NZD that are sensitive to Chinese economic health. But there’s a flip side: while this growth is impressive, it could also lead to inflationary pressures domestically, prompting the People’s Bank of China to adjust monetary policy. Watch for any shifts in interest rates or liquidity measures that could ripple through forex markets. Key levels to monitor include the USD/CNY pair around 6.50, as a break below could signal further yuan strength. Keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators and trade negotiations that could influence these trends. 📮 Takeaway Watch the USD/CNY pair around 6.50; a break below could indicate further yuan strength and impact related currencies.

China exports miss sharply as imports surge, narrowing trade surplus.Summary:Exports +2.5% y/y (vs +8.6% expected) Imports +27.8% y/y (vs +11.2% expected) Trade surplus $51.1bn (vs $108.2bn expected) Yuan exports stronger due to FX effects Strong domestic demand, weaker external demand China’s March trade data showed a sharp divergence between imports and exports, with demand holding up domestically while external momentum disappointed expectations.In dollar terms, exports rose just 2.5% year-on-year in March, well below the Reuters poll forecast of 8.6%, signalling a loss of momentum in external demand. In contrast, imports surged 27.8% y/y, far exceeding expectations of an 11.2% increase, pointing to strong domestic demand and higher commodity-related inflows.As a result, China’s trade surplus narrowed significantly to $51.13 billion, undershooting expectations of $108.2 billion and marking a sharp contraction from prior levels.In yuan terms, the picture appears stronger at first glance, with exports reported up 23.8% y/y and the trade surplus at CNY 354.75 billion. However, this divergence largely reflects currency effects. Yuan-denominated data captures trade flows in local currency, while dollar-denominated figures are influenced by exchange rate movements. A weaker yuan versus the U.S. dollar can inflate the local-currency value of exports and imports, even if underlying trade volumes are softer.The data suggests that while China’s domestic demand, particularly for commodities, remains robust, external demand is facing headwinds, likely tied to global uncertainty and the energy shock stemming from the Middle East conflict.Overall, the miss on exports alongside a surge in imports points to a narrowing external buffer, with the trade balance compressing more sharply than expected and raising questions about the sustainability of China’s export-led support for growth. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight China’s trade data is a wake-up call for traders: exports missed expectations while imports surged. The 2.5% year-over-year growth in exports, falling short of the anticipated 8.6%, signals weakening external demand, which could impact global supply chains. On the flip side, the 27.8% surge in imports reflects strong domestic consumption, suggesting that the Chinese economy is still robust internally. This divergence narrows the trade surplus to $51.1 billion, significantly below the expected $108.2 billion, which could put pressure on the yuan. Traders should watch how this affects commodity prices, especially in sectors reliant on Chinese demand, like metals and energy. Here’s the thing: while the immediate reaction might be bearish for the yuan, it could also present a buying opportunity if domestic demand continues to hold up. Keep an eye on the yuan’s performance against major currencies, particularly if it breaks key support levels. The next few weeks will be crucial for gauging whether this trend is a blip or a signal of deeper economic shifts. 📮 Takeaway Watch for the yuan’s reaction against major currencies; a break below key support could signal further weakness in the coming weeks.

Summary:Bessent urges Fed to “wait and see” on rate cuts Sees recent inflation spike as temporary Confident inflation expectations remain anchored Notes strong economic momentum into early 2026 Geopolitical risks complicating policy outlookU.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled a cautious approach to monetary policy, arguing that the Federal Reserve should adopt a “wait-and-see” stance before considering any interest rate cuts amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.Speaking in an interview with Semafor, Bessent said recent inflation pressures linked to the Iran conflict should not be viewed as persistent, expressing confidence that the latest price increases are unlikely to become embedded in longer-term inflation expectations. His comments suggest policymakers may view the current energy-driven inflation spike as temporary rather than structural.At the same time, Bessent highlighted the underlying strength of the U.S. economy heading into the early part of the year. He noted that economic conditions through January and February were robust, implying that the domestic economy entered the current geopolitical shock from a position of resilience.The remarks come as markets continue to assess the impact of rising energy prices and supply disruptions stemming from tensions in the Middle East. While higher oil prices risk lifting headline inflation in the near term, Bessent’s comments indicate a preference for patience, allowing policymakers time to evaluate whether these pressures feed through more broadly into wages and core inflation.His “wait-and-see” stance aligns with a broader narrative emerging from policymakers that premature easing could risk reigniting inflation, particularly if expectations become unanchored.Overall, Bessent’s comments suggest that while the inflation outlook remains uncertain, policymakers are not yet convinced that current price pressures warrant a shift toward rate cuts, reinforcing a cautious and data-dependent policy approach.Bessent does not set Fed monetary policy. Though he’d like to. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Bessent’s call for the Fed to ‘wait and see’ on rate cuts is crucial right now. With inflation showing a recent spike, traders need to assess whether this is a temporary blip or a sign of persistent pressures. If inflation expectations remain anchored, as Bessent suggests, it could mean the Fed won’t rush into cuts, impacting interest-sensitive assets like bonds and equities. The strong economic momentum projected into early 2026 adds another layer—if growth continues, the Fed might feel less pressure to adjust rates, keeping yields elevated. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming economic data releases, particularly inflation metrics and employment figures, as these will guide the Fed’s next moves. If inflation starts to trend down again, it could open the door for rate cuts later, but for now, the cautious stance suggests volatility in the markets could persist. Watch for key levels in Treasury yields and related equities, as shifts here could signal broader market reactions. 📮 Takeaway Monitor upcoming inflation data closely; if it trends down, it could signal potential rate cuts later, impacting Treasury yields and equities.

US Treasury’s Bessent backs “wait and see” on ratesChina exports miss, imports surge as trade surplus shrinks sharplySome China trade data dribbling out. Q1 trade data shows imports surge, exports stay firmHSBC warns peace deal needed to restore energy flows and curb inflationAustralia business confidence plunges to -29 as Iran war shock hits outlookVance comments have driven down oil, driven up risk assets. Trump will give him a cookie.PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8593 (vs. estimate at 6.8173)US-Iran talks end without deal but leave door open for further dialogue.Monetary Authority of Singapore tightens policy as inflation rises, flags slower growthKatayama flags global talks, no new policy signals in her commentsVance says progress made in Iran talks, sees path to broader dealPush-pull data: UK retail sales rise but consumer spending weakens, fuel costs hit demandRBA’s Hauser warns of stagflation risk as energy shock hits economy.More on US Energy Sec Wright forecasting higher oil prices aheadWar drags on, recession risk rise & global trade growth slows sharply, fall signs expectedTop Trump official says gas prices will rise even higher in coming weeksICYMI: IEA signals further oil reserve releases possible as Iran war disrupts supplyinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: Trump upbeat after a call from IranSummary:Diplomacy hopes lift sentiment; oil eases on Iran talk optimism US-Iran talks ongoing, with potential new round this week Central banks remain hawkish (RBA, MAS tighten stance) Australian business confidence collapses sharply China trade shows weak exports, strong imports USD weakens for seventh straight session; FX broadly firmerThere were some tentative rays of optimism for markets, driven by renewed hopes of diplomacy in the Middle East.AP reported, citing U.S. officials, that another round of talks between Washington and Tehran could take place as soon as Thursday. This followed Reuters reporting that negotiations remain alive despite the lack of a breakthrough over the weekend. U.S. Vice President JD Vance reinforced the constructive tone, saying talks made “a lot of progress” and that a broader deal remains possible, with the “ball in Iran’s court.”Markets took this as a modest positive. Oil prices eased on the back of the comments, with the prospect of a diplomatic resolution helping to temper immediate supply concerns tied to the Strait of Hormuz. That said, key sticking points remain, including Iran’s nuclear programme, the reopening of Hormuz, and sanctions relief. Reports suggest the sides came close to an agreement before talks stalled, with dialogue continuing via intermediaries. On the geopolitical front, attention also turns to talks involving Israel and Lebanon, with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio set to participate in preparatory discussions aimed at addressing tensions with Hezbollah.In central bank developments, the tone remains firmly hawkish. RBA Deputy Governor Hauser warned inflation is still too high and flagged a stagflation risk, adding bluntly that rates will need to rise further to bring CPI back to target. Meanwhile, MAS tightened policy by increasing the slope of its S$NEER band, citing rising imported inflation.Data flow reinforced the challenging macro backdrop. Australian business confidence collapsed in March, with the NAB index plunging to -29 from 0, one of the sharpest declines on record, even as conditions held steady at +6. The AUD slipped modestly despite the hawkish RBA tone, with NZD also softer.China’s trade data showed a clear divergence. Exports rose just 2.5% y/y (vs 8.6% expected), while imports surged 27.8% (vs 11.2%), sharply narrowing the trade surplus. The data points to resilient domestic demand but weakening external conditions amid energy-driven cost pressures.In FX, the dollar remained on the back foot, heading for a seventh straight daily decline. The DXY hovered near its lowest levels since early March, while the euro, sterling, and yen all firmed.Equities reflected a stabilisation in sentiment, with Japanese and South Korean stocks trading near pre-war highs.On the political front, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a parliamentary majority, strengthening his position amid ongoing trade tensions with the United States. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight China’s trade data is a mixed bag, and here’s why that matters right now: The surge in imports alongside stable exports suggests a shift in domestic demand, which could impact global supply chains and inflation. Traders should keep an eye on how this affects commodity prices, especially energy, as HSBC’s warning about needing a peace deal to restore energy flows highlights potential volatility. With Australia’s business confidence plummeting to -29, the sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region could further influence market dynamics. This could lead to increased volatility in forex pairs like AUD/USD and commodity currencies, particularly if traders react to deteriorating confidence levels. Watch for key resistance levels in these pairs, as a break could signal a larger trend shift. On the flip side, while some may see the import surge as a positive sign for recovery, it could also indicate that local production isn’t keeping pace, raising concerns about long-term sustainability. Keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators from both China and Australia to gauge the broader implications for global markets. 📮 Takeaway Monitor AUD/USD closely; a break below recent support levels could signal further downside as business confidence wanes.

WTI crude is down a little over 2% today to just below $97 now, effectively closing the Monday gap higher. This comes after some positive headlines yesterday, with reports of a second round of talks later this week. For the most part, markets seem to be taking their cue from what US president Trump has to say.Trump is now saying that the US is in touch with “the right people” from Iran and believes that they will agree on de-nuclearisation. He also seems eager to move on already as he mentions that “we may stop by Cuba after we’re finished with this”.All that being said, is still all too optimistic a take?The issue with how markets are responding still for now is that it doesn’t so much so tie back to the reality of the situation.There is still no movement along the Strait of Hormuz and nobody in the region can get their oil and gas out. So long as that remains the case, the physical market will continue to reflect skyrocketing prices and eventually something has got to give. The North Sea premium is still sitting between $30 to $50 per barrel at the moment.Traders are hopeful and are continuing to bet on the situation improving in the next week and in the coming month(s). But when it is time to pay the piper, something’s gotta give. And the fact remains that the oil market is still looking very vulnerable to a major reckoning when the time comes.The broader market mood is giving an extremely clear hint that everyone wants to and is ready to move on from this war. That is reflected in the optimistic risk rebound we’re seeing in the past day, despite the headlines needing to catch up.But come what may, it’s all a question of what happens next with the Strait of Hormuz. As much as Iran might agree to any terms to de-escalate the conflict, it is hard to imagine them giving up control over the waters. That is their only and most important bargaining chip in all of this.So if the situation doesn’t switch up, you’d have to think markets will face a big slap of reality soon enough. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight WTI crude’s drop below $97 signals potential volatility ahead, especially with upcoming talks looming. The recent decline of over 2% comes after a brief rally, indicating that traders are cautious despite earlier optimism. The market’s reaction to the news suggests a fragile sentiment, where any positive developments from the talks could lead to a quick rebound, but failure to deliver could exacerbate selling pressure. Keep an eye on the $95 level, as a breach could trigger further downside, while a recovery above $100 might reignite bullish momentum. Additionally, watch how this impacts correlated assets like energy stocks and the broader commodities market, as they often react in tandem with crude prices. Here’s the thing: while the headlines are positive, they might not reflect the underlying supply-demand dynamics. If traders are overly optimistic, we could see a sharp correction if the talks don’t yield immediate results. So, monitor the news closely and be ready to adjust your positions based on how the market reacts to the developments later this week. 📮 Takeaway Watch for WTI crude to hold above $95; a break could signal further declines, while a recovery above $100 might indicate renewed bullish sentiment.

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below.The market mood has swung around since this same time yesterday, with optimism bouncing back after US president Trump talked up hopes for a deal with Iran. Adding to that is reports that we are likely to see a second round of negotiations later this week. Both sides are reportedly weighing their options before potentially meeting back at the round table on Thursday in Islamabad again.For now, the US blockade remains and the Strait of Hormuz is still in de facto closure. However, markets are looking to move on already but is that really the right move? Only time will. There’s a ticking bomb in the oil market with the May contract futures set to run its course next week. So, there’s that to consider. And what bodes ill for oil prices will have major reverberations for broader market sentiment too, so keep that in mind.In the major currencies space, the dollar has fallen back with EUR/USD jumping back up above 1.1700 overnight to hang around 1.1760 levels now. There aren’t any major expiries that will be of much influence today. As such, trading sentiment will largely be dictated by the dollar mood and headline risks that may drop along the session.But as we’ve seen as of late, it is usually when Trump wakes up that we’ll get added volatility to markets. In the meantime, it may be a bit of a rangy and cagey session in Europe up next.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Market sentiment is shifting, and here’s why it matters for traders: optimism around a potential US-Iran deal could drive volatility. With no major expiries today, traders should focus on how geopolitical developments can impact asset prices. Trump’s comments have reignited hope, which could lead to increased buying pressure in related markets, particularly oil and equities. If optimism continues, we might see a bullish trend, but it’s crucial to watch for any sudden shifts in sentiment that could trigger sell-offs. Keep an eye on key resistance levels in oil and stock indices, as a break could signal a stronger upward move. Conversely, if talks falter, expect a quick reversal. The flip side is that this optimism might be overhyped. Traders should remain cautious and not get swept up in the euphoria. Monitor the news closely for any contradictory statements or developments that could dampen the current mood. A sudden change could lead to significant market corrections, especially in sensitive sectors like energy and defense. 📮 Takeaway Watch for key resistance levels in oil and equities; a break could signal a bullish trend, but stay alert for any news that might shift sentiment.