UK retail boosted by Easter, but underlying spending weakens as fuel shock bites.Summary:UK retail sales jump on Easter timing effect BRC like-for-like +3.1% y/y vs +0.7% prior Total sales +3.6% y/y vs +1.1% prior Barclays spending softer at +0.9% vs +1.0% Travel spending drops 3.3% y/y Consumers delaying purchases, building savingsUK consumer data for March painted a mixed picture, with retail sales boosted by seasonal factors while underlying spending remained subdued as higher fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict weighed on households.Figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed a notable pickup in retail activity. Like-for-like sales rose 3.1% year-on-year, accelerating sharply from 0.7% in February, while total sales increased 3.6% y/y compared with 1.1% previously. The strength was largely attributed to the earlier timing of Easter, which lifted food sales and supported discretionary categories such as toys, homeware, and electronics.However, the improvement in retail turnover contrasts with softer signals from broader consumer spending data. Barclays reported overall consumer spending growth of just 0.9% y/y in March, slightly down from 1.0% in February, suggesting that momentum in household demand remains fragile.The composition of spending highlights the pressure points. Travel-related expenditure fell 3.3% y/y, marking the first decline since March 2021 during the pandemic. Airlines and travel agents led the drop, reflecting the impact of higher fuel costs and disruption tied to the Iran conflict. Retail data echoed this trend, with travel-related goods also underperforming.Consumer behaviour is shifting more defensively. Surveys show households are increasingly delaying major purchases and building savings buffers amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and rising living costs. This suggests that while headline retail figures have been flattered by calendar effects, underlying demand is softening.Looking ahead, the divergence between stronger retail sales and weaker overall spending points to a cautious consumer backdrop, with energy-driven cost pressures likely to keep activity muted in the coming months despite pockets of resilience. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight UK retail sales saw a notable Easter boost, but the underlying trend is concerning for traders. The reported 3.1% year-on-year increase in like-for-like sales masks a deeper issue: consumer spending is weakening, particularly in travel, which dropped 3.3%. This suggests that while seasonal factors can temporarily inflate numbers, the broader economic context—marked by rising fuel costs—is leading consumers to delay purchases. For traders, this could signal a shift in retail sentiment that might impact related sectors, such as consumer discretionary stocks and even the forex market, where the British pound could face pressure if consumer confidence continues to wane. Watch for key support levels in retail stocks and the pound against major currencies; a sustained decline could trigger further sell-offs. Here’s the thing: while the Easter bump is nice, the real story is the weakening consumer sentiment. If spending continues to soften, it could lead to a broader economic slowdown, impacting everything from retail to forex. Keep an eye on upcoming consumer confidence reports and retail earnings for more clarity on this trend. 📮 Takeaway Monitor UK retail stocks and the pound; a sustained decline in consumer spending could trigger significant market reactions.

Summary:Vance says talks made “a lot of progress” U.S. gained insight into Iran’s negotiating stance No deal yet, but framework for “grand deal” exists Iran seen as not fully authorised to agree Hormuz reopening and uranium key U.S. demands Ball now “in Iran’s court”U.S. Vice President JD Vance struck a cautiously optimistic tone on negotiations with Iran, suggesting meaningful progress has been made even as talks have yet to deliver a breakthrough.Speaking in an interview on Fox News, Vance said recent discussions over the weekend were productive, with U.S. officials gaining valuable insight into Iran’s negotiating approach. While the talks did not result in a deal, he emphasised that the outcome was not a failure, noting that Iranian counterparts showed some movement toward U.S. positions, though not enough to finalise an agreement.Vance indicated that the U.S. team ultimately stepped away from the talks after concluding that Iranian negotiators lacked the authority to commit to a binding deal, but he maintained that the broader trajectory remains constructive. He pointed to the potential for a “grand deal,” arguing that the framework for a comprehensive agreement is achievable if Iran is willing to take the next step.The U.S. position remains clear, with Vance reiterating key red lines. These include the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping and the removal of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, with Washington seeking full control over that material to ensure it cannot be used for nuclear weapons development.Looking ahead, Vance stressed that momentum has been established, with the “ball in Iran’s court” to advance negotiations further. He added that progress on reopening Hormuz would be a critical signal of intent, while warning that the course of negotiations could shift if Tehran fails to follow through.Overall, Vance’s remarks suggest the U.S. sees a viable diplomatic path forward, even as tensions remain elevated and key sticking points unresolved. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The recent comments from U.S. Vice President JD Vance about progress in negotiations with Iran could signal a shift in geopolitical dynamics that traders need to watch closely. While there’s no deal yet, the mention of a potential ‘grand deal’ suggests that markets could react to any developments, particularly in energy and commodities. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is critical, as it’s a vital shipping route for oil, and any disruptions here could spike crude prices. Additionally, Iran’s uranium negotiations are pivotal; if they yield results, it could ease sanctions and flood the market with oil, impacting prices significantly. Traders should keep an eye on crude oil futures and related ETFs, especially if we see movement towards a deal. On the flip side, if negotiations stall or Iran refuses to comply, we could see a spike in volatility across oil markets. Watch for key levels in crude oil prices, particularly around recent highs, and monitor sentiment in the broader commodities market for signs of how traders are positioning themselves ahead of any announcements. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on crude oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz developments; any breakthrough in Iran negotiations could lead to significant market shifts.

Japan’s Katayama outlines global meeting agenda, offers no new policy signals.Summary:Katayama to attend G7, G20, IMF, World Bank meetings Talks to cover financial markets and energy situation Japan signals readiness to support Asian economies Monitoring JGB yields, maintaining market dialogue Monetary policy decisions left to BoJJapan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama outlined her upcoming participation in a series of international meetings in Washington, signalling continued engagement on global financial and economic developments, though her remarks carried little in the way of new policy signals.Katayama confirmed she will attend gatherings of G7 and G20 finance leaders, alongside meetings hosted by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, beginning April 15. The discussions are expected to focus on key global themes, including financial market conditions and the evolving energy landscape, particularly in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions.She indicated that Japan will use these forums to coordinate closely with international counterparts, with energy market developments and financial stability likely to be central topics. Katayama also noted that Japan stands ready to support Asian economies if needed, suggesting a willingness to contribute to regional stability efforts amid the broader global shock.On domestic matters, Katayama addressed the recent rise in Japanese government bond yields, reiterating that authorities will maintain close communication with market participants. However, she stopped short of signalling any specific intervention measures or policy shifts.She also reinforced the division of responsibilities between fiscal and monetary authorities, stating that decisions regarding monetary policy operations remain firmly within the remit of the Bank of Japan.Overall, the comments were largely procedural, highlighting Japan’s participation in upcoming global discussions and its readiness to engage on key issues, without introducing new guidance on policy direction or market intervention. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama’s recent comments signal a cautious approach to monetary policy, and here’s why that matters: With no new policy signals emerging from the upcoming G7 and G20 meetings, traders should be wary of potential volatility in the yen and Japanese government bonds (JGBs). The focus on monitoring JGB yields indicates that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may be preparing for a more proactive stance if yields rise too sharply, which could impact global markets. If JGB yields spike, it might lead to a stronger yen, affecting export-driven stocks and potentially causing a ripple effect across Asian economies. Traders should keep an eye on the 10-year JGB yield as a key indicator; any significant movement could prompt a reaction from the BoJ. On the flip side, the lack of immediate policy changes could mean that the current low-interest environment remains intact for longer, which might support equities in Japan. However, with global economic pressures mounting, the situation could change rapidly. Watch for any updates from the BoJ or unexpected shifts in yield that could signal a change in market sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the 10-year JGB yield closely; any significant rise could trigger a BoJ response and impact the yen and Asian markets.

MAS tightens policy as imported inflation rises, even as growth outlook softens. An expected move. Summary:MAS tightens via steeper S$NEER appreciation slope No change to band width or centre Inflation forecasts raised to 1.5–2.5% (from 1.0–2.0%) Imported energy costs driving price pressures GDP growth seen slowing in 2026 Q1 GDP 4.6% y/y, but -0.3% q/qThe Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has tightened policy slightly by increasing the rate of appreciation of the S$NEER policy band, signalling a continued focus on containing inflation pressures even as growth momentum slows.The move, implemented without changes to the band’s width or centre, indicates a calibrated tightening stance, with MAS opting to guide a stronger Singapore dollar over time to offset rising imported inflation. This comes as the central bank raised its inflation forecasts, now expecting both core and headline CPI to run between 1.5% and 2.5%, up from the previous 1.0% to 2.0% range.MAS highlighted that imported price pressures are intensifying, particularly from energy. Prices of crude oil, natural gas, and fuel have risen sharply, feeding directly into electricity, transport, and broader consumer costs. The central bank also warned that a wider range of imported goods and services will see price increases in the quarters ahead, with second-round effects expected across retail and non-cooked food categories.Even while tightening policy, MAS acknowledged that growth is set to moderate. GDP is expected to slow through 2026, stepping down from the above-trend pace seen in 2025, while the output gap is projected to narrow toward zero over the course of the year. Flash data showed Q1 GDP growth at 4.6% y/y, slightly below expectations, with a modest contraction on a quarterly basis.External risks remain elevated, with the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict flagged as a potential drag on activity. MAS noted it stands ready to curb excessive volatility in the currency if needed, underscoring a flexible policy approach.Overall, the decision reflects a balancing act, tightening to contain imported inflation while recognising a softer growth outlook.—The Monetary Authority of Singapore conducts monetary policy by managing the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER), rather than setting interest rates. It does this through a policy band defined by its slope, width, and centre. When MAS increases the rate of appreciation of the S$NEER policy band, it is effectively tightening policy, because it is guiding the Singapore dollar to strengthen more quickly over time. A stronger currency reduces imported inflation by lowering the cost of foreign goods and services, while also tightening overall financial conditions. As a result, an increase in the slope of appreciation is interpreted by markets as a tightening move, typically used when inflation pressures are elevated or expected to rise. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight MAS’s policy tightening signals a critical shift in Singapore’s economic landscape. With the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) adjusting the S$NEER appreciation slope, traders need to pay attention to how this impacts currency pairs, particularly SGD/USD. The raised inflation forecast to 1.5–2.5% indicates that imported energy costs are a significant concern, which could lead to further tightening down the line. A slowing GDP growth outlook for 2026 Q1 adds another layer of complexity, suggesting that while inflation is a priority, economic growth is also under pressure. This could create volatility in the forex market, especially for those trading SGD against major currencies. Here’s the flip side: while MAS is tightening, global economic conditions and central bank policies elsewhere could counteract these moves. Traders should keep an eye on how other central banks respond, especially the Fed, as their decisions could influence capital flows into or out of Singapore. Watch for key levels in SGD/USD; a break below recent support could signal a bearish trend, while resistance levels will be crucial for any bullish reversals. 📮 Takeaway Monitor SGD/USD closely; a break below key support levels could indicate bearish momentum as MAS tightens policy amid rising inflation.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The upcoming USD/CNY reference rate fixing is crucial for traders, especially with the current volatility in global markets. As the People’s Bank of China sets this rate, it can influence not just the yuan but also broader forex dynamics, particularly against the dollar. Traders should keep an eye on how this fixing aligns with recent economic data from China, which has shown mixed signals. If the reference rate comes in weaker than expected, it could trigger a sell-off in the yuan, impacting related assets like commodities and emerging market currencies. Conversely, a stronger fixing might bolster confidence in the yuan and stabilize other markets. Look for key levels around recent support and resistance in the USD/CNY pair, as these will guide potential trading strategies. The immediate timeframe is critical; watch how the market reacts post-fixing for short-term trading opportunities. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the USD/CNY reference rate fixing closely; a weaker rate could lead to a yuan sell-off, impacting related currencies and commodities.

This via a Reuters piece. US-Iran talks end without deal but leave door open for further dialogue.Summary:US-Iran talks end without agreement Sides reportedly “close” before breakdown Key disputes: nuclear programme, Hormuz, sanctions Talks described as tense but ongoing Dialogue continues via intermediaries De-escalation incentives remain for both sidesEarlier:Vance says progress made in Iran talks, sees path to broader dealHigh-level talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad ended without a breakthrough, but both sides left the door open for continued dialogue, according to multiple sources familiar with the negotiations.The weekend meeting, brokered by Pakistan and marking the first direct engagement at this level in decades, ran for more than 20 hours and at times appeared close to producing a framework agreement. Several sources indicated the sides were “very close” before key sticking points derailed progress late in the discussions.Central disagreements remain entrenched around Iran’s nuclear programme, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and access to frozen assets. The United States is seeking a comprehensive agreement that would eliminate Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons, require the transfer of highly enriched uranium, and ensure the full reopening of Hormuz without restrictions. Iran, by contrast, is pushing for sanctions relief, guarantees against future military action, and continued control over its nuclear activities and strategic waterways.The tone of the talks was described as tense and at times confrontational, with participants moving between separate rooms and Pakistani mediators working through the night to keep negotiations on track. While there were moments where the atmosphere improved and even raised the possibility of extending discussions, fundamental differences ultimately proved too significant to bridge.Despite the lack of a deal, engagement between the two sides has continued following the talks, with intermediaries still relaying messages. Both sides appear to have incentives to pursue de-escalation, given the economic and political costs of the conflict.Overall, while the immediate outcome fell short of expectations, the continuation of dialogue suggests diplomacy remains a live pathway. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The US-Iran talks ending without a deal is a significant moment for traders, especially in oil and forex markets. With both sides reportedly close to an agreement, the breakdown raises concerns about potential volatility in oil prices, particularly if tensions escalate in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route. Traders should keep an eye on crude oil futures, as any renewed conflict could spike prices rapidly. Additionally, the lack of resolution may impact the Iranian rial and broader Middle Eastern currencies, which could see increased volatility as market participants react to geopolitical risks. It’s worth noting that while the talks were tense, the door remains open for further dialogue, which could stabilize markets if progress is made. However, the immediate risk is heightened uncertainty, so traders should monitor key levels in oil and related currencies closely. Watch for any news updates in the coming days that could signal a shift in negotiations or military actions. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on crude oil prices and Middle Eastern currencies; any escalation in tensions could lead to significant volatility.