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The USD is trading lower today as oil slips back below $100 and Treasury yields edge down. The 10-year yield is off -2.2 bps at 4.367%, while the 2-year is also down -2.2 bps at 3.865%.On the data front, ISM Manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected but held above the 50 level—keeping the sector in expansion. The report had a mixed tone: employment declined, while new orders and prices moved higher, pointing to ongoing demand alongside persistent cost pressures.In the video above, I walk through the major currency pairs versus the USD—breaking down the technicals that define the bias, risk, and targets.EURUSDThe EURUSD pushed to new highs and is now targeting the April 21–22 highs near 1.1790.Above 1.1790 → opens the door toward the next swing area at 1.1823–1.1836
The pair has already broken and extended away from this week’s high at 1.17544, signaling strong upside momentum
Bias: Bullish above 1.1754
USDJPYUSDJPY remains range-bound, with key levels clearly defining the battlefield:Resistance: 100-day MA at 157.26Support: 61.8% retracement at 155.50Pivot: 50% midpoint at 156.50Price is rotating above and below that midpoint—acting as the rudder:Above 156.50 → more bullish tilt
Below 156.50 → sellers gain control
Bias: Neutral within the range, awaiting a break
GBPUSDGBPUSD has broken higher after holding support in a key April swing area:Support: 1.3575–1.3598 (now risk-defining zone)
High today: 1.3658 (highest since mid-February)
Upside targets:1.3725–1.3772 (next major swing area)
Year high: 1.3869
Bias: Bullish above 1.3575
USDCHFUSDCHF continues to push lower and is approaching key support:April low: 0.7773
61.8% retracement: 0.7770
This is a critical decision zone:
A break below would increase bearish momentum
On the first test, expect dip buyers to lean with tight risk
Bias: Bearish, but support is being tested
NZDUSDNZDUSD has rebounded sharply after making lower lows over the past three weeks:
The earlier break below the 4H 200-bar MA (0.5829) failed to sustain momentum
Price is now testing a key swing area
Key levels:Resistance: 0.5927–0.5935
High today: 0.5924
Above 0.5935 → opens the door for further upside extension
Bias: Turning more bullish on a break higher
USDCADUSDCAD continues its move lower, extending the downside momentum from midweek:
Broke below swing area at 1.3593–1.3600Low today: 1.3550
Next downside targets:1.3521–1.3531 (swing area)
February low: 1.3503
Year low: 1.3482
Bias: Bearish below 1.3600
Bottom line:
Lower yields and softer oil are weighing on the USD, while technically, most pairs are either extending trends (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD) or coiling for a break (USDJPY). The levels above define the battlefield—stay with the bias, define the risk, and let the market confirm the next move
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The USD’s decline today signals shifting market dynamics, especially with oil prices retreating below $100. Lower Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield at 4.367%, suggest a risk-off sentiment among investors. This could lead to a stronger appeal for safe-haven assets like gold, which traders should monitor closely. The weaker ISM Manufacturing PMI indicates potential economic slowdown, which might prompt the Fed to reconsider its tightening stance. If the USD continues to weaken, it could create opportunities for forex traders to capitalize on pairs like EUR/USD or GBP/USD, especially if they break key resistance levels. Keep an eye on the 4-hour charts for potential breakout patterns. However, there’s a flip side: if oil rebounds or yields rise unexpectedly, the USD could quickly regain strength, so be prepared for volatility.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for USD weakness against major pairs if oil stays below $100 and yields remain low; key levels to monitor are 4.35% for the 10-year yield and resistance in EUR/USD around 1.10.
