Two tankers slip through Hormuz dark as Gulf oil crisis grinds on. Yeah, two. Yippee.

Two VLCCs carrying a combined 4 million barrels of Gulf crude exited the Strait of Hormuz last week with transponders switched off to avoid Iranian attack, Kpler data showed. Summary:The VLCC Basrah Energy loaded 2 million barrels of Upper Zakum crude at ADNOC’s Zirku terminal on May 1 and exited the Strait of Hormuz on May 6 with its tracker switched off, according to Kpler shipping data reported by ReutersThe Panama-flagged vessel, owned and managed by Sinokor, offloaded its cargo at Fujairah Oil Tanker Terminals on May 8, per the Kpler dataThe charterer of the Basrah Energy was not immediately identified; Sinokor did not respond to a request for comment, according to ReutersA second VLCC, the Kiara M, exited the Gulf on Sunday with its transponder switched off, carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude, per Kpler dataThe destination of the San Marino-flagged Kiara M was not immediately clear, according to ReutersADNOC and its buyers have been sailing multiple tankers through the strait in an effort to move crude stranded in the Gulf by the ongoing Middle East conflict, per ReutersTwo very large crude carriers managed to navigate the Strait of Hormuz last week with their tracking transponders disabled to avoid detection and potential Iranian attack, shipping data showed, in a development that underscores the dire state of Gulf oil flows rather than offering any meaningful relief to a market starved of normal transit volumes.The VLCC Basrah Energy loaded 2 million barrels of Upper Zakum crude at Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s Zirku terminal on May 1. The vessel, owned and managed by South Korean shipper Sinokor and sailing under a Panamanian flag, exited the strait on May 6 before offloading its cargo at Fujairah Oil Tanker Terminals on May 8, according to Kpler shipping data. The charterer of the vessel was not immediately identified, and Sinokor did not respond to a request for comment.Separately, a second VLCC, the Kiara M, exited the Gulf on Sunday carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude, also with its transponder switched off. The San Marino-flagged vessel’s discharge destination was not immediately clear from the available data.That these two movements, totalling 4 million barrels between them, are being reported as a meaningful development is itself a stark illustration of how comprehensively the Hormuz crisis has upended normal market functioning. Under ordinary conditions, the strait facilitates the transit of roughly 20 million barrels of crude per day. Four million barrels spread across two vessels and nearly a week of operations would barely register as a footnote in a normal shipping report. Today, it is news.ADNOC and its buyers have been making repeated attempts to move crude that has become stranded in the Gulf as the Middle East conflict has choked normal shipping activity. The transponder-off approach has emerged as a workaround, allowing vessels to reduce their visibility to potential attackers, but it is a tactic with hard limits. It cannot be scaled to anything approaching the volumes needed to restore meaningful supply flows, it complicates maritime safety and coordination, and it adds layers of insurance and logistical complexity that further raise the cost of every barrel that does make it through.Until transits through the strait can be conducted openly, at normal frequency and without the threat of attack, the fundamental supply disruption driving the Gulf oil crisis will remain firmly in place. Two tankers making it out is not a trend; it is a reminder of how much is not moving.Yes, two is better than none. But not by much. —The fact that two tankers moving a combined 4 million barrels constitutes notable market news speaks volumes about just how severely constrained Hormuz transit has become. In a functioning market, that volume would be rounding error on a single day’s normal strait throughput. The transponder-off tactic offers producers a workaround, but it is inherently limited in scale, impossible to conduct at the volume needed to meaningfully offset the broader disruption, and carries its own navigational and insurance risks. Until transits can be conducted openly and at scale, the strait’s effective closure will continue to underpin the geopolitical risk premium in crude prices, with any incremental dark-shipping news unlikely to shift the supply picture in any material way.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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