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The USD is higher and cautious to start the US session. The US/Iran war remains a chief focus. Today brought cautious but fragile signals of movement in US-Iran negotiations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged “slight progress” in talks to end the war, though he was careful not to overstate how much. Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir traveled to Tehran today carrying a new message from the US, in the latest mediation push to shrink the remaining gaps between the two sides. Still, major sticking points remain: the sides are still at odds over future control of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s right to enrich uranium. Rubio told reporters that a diplomatic agreement would be “unfeasible” if Tehran continues pursuing a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran’s position centers on a definitive end to the war on all fronts, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and an end to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. The International Energy Agency has described the ongoing Strait shutdown as “the biggest energy security threat in history.” The world is watching and waiting.Meanwhile, crude oil is higher by about $1.14 or 1.12% at $97.45., but US yields in the US. The 2 year yield is trading at 4.067% down 1.9 basis points. The 10 year is down -4.4 basis points at 4.538%. Getting below 4% and 4.5% would be the next targets to encourage more buying of Treasuries/lower yields. Usually if oil is up, yields are too, but that is now the pattern today. Looking at the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are continuing the move higher after the volatile moves yesterday ended with the indices ending the day higher. The Dow is up 335 points, while the S&P is up 27.8 points and the Nasdaq is up 104 points. Looking at the EURUSD, the pair is trading below the 100 hour MA at 1.16172. That keeps the sellers in control. Yesterday, and on Wednesday, the pair tried to extend above that MA, but the moves higher failed. Today, the sellers did a good job of stalling ahead of that MA, keeping the sellers more in control.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The USD’s uptick reflects market caution amid US-Iran tensions, and here’s why that matters: With Secretary Rubio hinting at ‘slight progress’ in negotiations, traders should be wary of volatility. The USD often strengthens in uncertain geopolitical climates, and this could lead to short-term gains for USD pairs. However, if negotiations falter, expect a swift reversal. Watch for key levels in USD/JPY and EUR/USD; a break above recent highs could signal further strength. Conversely, failure to maintain momentum could trigger profit-taking. It’s also worth noting that mainstream coverage might downplay the impact of these geopolitical tensions on the forex market. Traders should keep an eye on related assets like oil, which could react sharply to any news from the negotiations. If oil prices spike due to escalated tensions, that could further strengthen the USD as a safe haven. So, monitor the news closely and be prepared for rapid shifts in sentiment.
📮 Takeaway
Watch USD/JPY and EUR/USD for key breakouts; geopolitical developments could trigger volatility in both directions.
