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Iran expected to deliver counter-proposal to the US today – reportTrump signals to allies no immediate plans for Iran invasionHouthis in Yemen announce entry into the conflict to support IranSecretary of State Rubio said that the war with Iran will continue for another 2-4 weeksUMich final March consumer sentiment 53.3 vs 54.0 expectedECB Schnabel: There is no need to rush into actionPhiladelphia Fed Pres. Paulson: Fed has made notable progress bringing inflation downMore from Paulson: Impact of Iran War comes as inflation has been highFed’s Barkin: Even before oil shock, progress on inflation was stallingIran hackers claim the breach of Kash Patel’s personal emailBaker Hughes total rig count falls to 543 from 552 last weekMarkets:WTI crude oil up $5.59 to $100.07S&P 500 down 1.7% to 6368Gold up $135 to $4513US 10-year yields up 3.6 bps to 5.00%Bitcoin down 4.2%USD leads, GBP lagsIt was an ugly one for most markets today, with the exception of gold and oil. The Nasdaq fell to a six month low as war worries extended throughout the day. The positive backdrop of Trump extending his deadline to strike power facilities yesterday ultimately failed. The thinking is that the 10 day extension will add more pain and that a deal doesn’t look promising.As oil steadily climbed it pushed yields higher and equities lower. Compounding the pain in stocks is an intensifying selloff in tech stocks led by some of the highest flyers this year and last. That looks like a deleveraging move as the uncertainty around the economy grows. Early on in the conflict, there was trust this would wrap up in Trump’s 4-5 week timeline but we just completed Week 4 and Rubio today said 2-4 more weeks.Late in the day, the report about Houthis entering the war was questioned. US negotiator Steve Witkoff said he thinks there will be meetings with Iran this week and that Trump wants a peace deal. I guess all that is going to depend what Trump puts on the table. In an optimistic world maybe there is a way Iran gives up nuclear material in exchange for peace and sanctions relief. With that, Trump could also claim he stopped Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.The market is also likely fearful of a US escalation over the weekend. The report about the US not using ground troops barely had an effect on the market as everything is quickly discounted as possible mis-information.In terms of movers, the MAG7 looks like this:Meta (META): down 4.0%Amazon (AMZN): down 4.0% Microsoft (MSFT): down 2.5% Alphabet (GOOGL): down 2.5% Nvidia (NVDA): down 2.2%Tesla (TSLA): down 2.8% Apple (AAPL): down 1.6%
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Tensions in the Middle East are heating up, and here’s why that matters for traders: With Iran set to deliver a counter-proposal to the US, market volatility could spike, especially in oil and forex markets. The Houthis’ involvement adds another layer of complexity, potentially impacting oil supply routes. Traders should keep an eye on crude oil prices, as any escalation could push prices higher, impacting inflation and central bank policies globally. The recent consumer sentiment reading from UMich at 53.3 indicates a bearish outlook, which could lead to risk-off sentiment in the markets. If traders are holding positions in energy stocks or commodities, now’s the time to reassess risk exposure. On the flip side, if diplomatic solutions emerge, we could see a quick reversal in oil prices and a strengthening of the dollar. Watch for key levels in crude oil around recent highs, and keep an eye on geopolitical news for sudden shifts. The next few weeks are critical; volatility is likely to increase, so be prepared for rapid market movements.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor crude oil prices closely; any escalation in Iran tensions could push prices above recent highs, impacting inflation and market sentiment.
