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Retail sales -0.3% vs -0.5% m/m expectedPrior -2.0%; revised to -0.3%The report here needs to be taken into context alongside the revision to the March numbers as well. There was a sharp revision higher to March retail sales, so that at least paints a better backdrop to work with during the onset of the Middle East conflict. So, the added drop in April doesn’t hurt as badly and if anything it also comes in better than estimated.The adjustment also sees April retail sales being down by just 0.3% in real terms compared to the same month last year. That owes much to a drop in petrol station sales, which are seen down over 10% annually (including sales in petrol station shops).And even when you put a comparison to the previous month, petrol station sales were still down 4.0% in real terms. The drop there is partially offset by a pick up in retail sales in the food sector (+3.2%) while non-food retail trade fell by 2.2% in real terms on the month.All in all, it points to demand conditions being impacted by higher prices especially in non-food retailing. Food store sales may have picked up due to households also stocking up on groceries just in case we do see prices go up further in the weeks ahead. That as the US-Iran conflict continues to rage on and hit at input costs while gripping supply chains.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Retail sales dropping 0.3% might seem concerning, but here’s why it matters: revisions to March figures show a stronger consumer backdrop. The unexpected revision of March retail sales to a 0.3% increase suggests that consumer spending isn’t as weak as it appears. This could mean that traders should be cautious about overreacting to the latest data. Instead, consider how this might impact the broader economic outlook and related markets. If consumer confidence remains steady, we could see a rebound in sectors like retail and consumer discretionary stocks. Watch for how this plays out in the coming weeks, especially as we approach key earnings reports. On the flip side, if the market interprets this as a sign of slowing growth, we might see volatility in equities and a flight to safer assets like bonds. Keep an eye on the S&P 500 and its reaction to these retail figures, particularly if it tests support levels around recent lows. The next few trading sessions will be crucial for gauging market sentiment.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the S&P 500 for potential support around recent lows; a rebound could signal renewed consumer confidence despite the retail sales dip.
