FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThings were looking pretty dire for the S&P 500 just an hour ago as Trump’s ultimatum to Iran was keeping traders on edge for fears of further escalation. That’s now history though as Trump’s ceasefire announcement on Truth Social turned markets around quickly on expectations of a potential end to the conflict. The downside for now will likely remain limited but the risk that this is just Trump jawboning markets again might also cap the upside. In fact, the Iranian side is saying that there were no direct or indirect contacts with the US.US-Iran headlines will continue to drive the price action, so traders will need to stay laser focused and be nimble to adjust their positions.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 probed below the November lows and reversed strongly after Trump’s ceasefire. We can expect the sellers to step in around the resistance at 6,760 where we have also the confluence of the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see a breakout to increase the bullish bets into new all-time highs. S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, there’s not much we can add as the sellers will likely step in around the resistance to target a drop back into the 6,530 support, while the buyers will look for a breakout to pile in for new highs.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price is trading much above the upper bound of the average daily range for today. This shouldn’t be surprising given the importance of Trump’s post. In such instances though, we can generally see some consolidation or a pullback before the next move.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US PMIs. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. As a reminder, the focus is mainly on the US-Iran war, so keep an eye on the headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Trump’s ceasefire announcement just flipped the S&P 500’s narrative, and here’s why that matters: Traders were bracing for volatility as tensions with Iran escalated, but the sudden shift to a ceasefire has sparked a wave of optimism. This could lead to a short-term rally in equities, especially if the S&P 500 breaks above key resistance levels. Watch for a move past recent highs, which could trigger further buying from both retail and institutional investors. The broader market context shows that geopolitical tensions often lead to knee-jerk reactions, but a resolution can stabilize sentiment and encourage risk-on behavior. However, don’t ignore the flip side—if this ceasefire proves temporary or if underlying tensions resurface, we could see a quick reversal. Traders should keep an eye on the daily chart for signs of exhaustion or reversal patterns. Key levels to monitor include the S&P 500’s recent highs and any significant economic indicators that could impact market sentiment in the coming days. The real story is how long this optimism lasts and whether it translates into sustained buying pressure. 📮 Takeaway Watch the S&P 500 for a potential breakout above recent highs; a sustained rally could follow if geopolitical tensions ease further.

Iran’s local media is not offering any confirmation to Trump’s comments it would seem. This via key energy market correspondent and head of Kpler’s energy market and OPEC+ intel, Amena Bakr, on Twitter/X. She is a well reputable source in the oil market for all things, so just be aware of the situation here. The tweet:”IRANIAN MEDIA SAYS THERE WAS NO DIRECT OR INDIRECT CONTACT WITH TRUMP AND CLAIMS HE WITHDREW AFTER THREATENING TO ATTACK WEST ASIA ENERGY FACILITIES.”So yeah, who’s telling the truth here? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Trump’s comments on Iran’s oil production aren’t backed by local media, and here’s why that matters: If traders were banking on a significant shift in Iranian oil supply due to Trump’s statements, they might need to recalibrate their expectations. The lack of confirmation from Iranian sources suggests that any anticipated market impact could be overstated. Given the current volatility in oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decisions, this uncertainty could lead to erratic price movements in the short term. Traders should keep an eye on Brent and WTI benchmarks, especially if they approach key support or resistance levels. On the flip side, if Iran does confirm any changes, it could lead to a spike in oil prices. So, monitoring Iranian media and official statements is crucial. Additionally, watch for any shifts in sentiment from major oil-producing nations, as they could influence market dynamics significantly in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on Iranian media for confirmation of Trump’s comments; any news could impact oil prices significantly in the short term.

You have to wonder, what was the past three weeks all for then? US president Trump is now saying that they’ve had “very good and productive” talks with Iran to put an end to all hostilities in the Middle East. And that there will be a ceasefire of sorts now for a period of five days as negotiations continue during this time period.It is pretty clear that we’ve reached a threshold where Trump no longer has the appetite to keep the war going. Right from the start, it already led to all the things he did not like whatsoever in markets. As mentioned at the time, it had everything on the list:Higher oil prices ✔Lower stock market ✔Weaker conviction by the Fed to cut rates amid inflation fears ✔Higher bond yields/rates ✔Stronger US dollar (to some extent) as the trade war rages on too ✔So, what’s next?I don’t want to say that this will be the end of all hostilities in the region. It is quite clear at this stage that Iran still holds significant leverage in being able to place a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. And that means at any time that the conflict begins to escalate again, they can play this card.And even during this supposed ceasefire period, I doubt we will see commercial vessels take the risk to transit through the strait. There might be some willing enough to take up that risk and that could lead to more ships passing through. But on any restart of shipments, I would expect things to be slow. Think of it as a slow trickle back to normality rather than an immediate zero to one hundred.In any case, emotions are running high across markets and we’re risk appetite return with a bang.S&P 500 futures were down by as much as 1% earlier in the day but are now up 1.8% currently. That after having been on the verge of an even bigger meltdown as indicated by the charts here. If you think Trump is not watching the stock market closely, this is another clear indication that he definitely does pay attention. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Trump’s claims of productive talks with Iran could shift market sentiment dramatically. If a ceasefire materializes, expect volatility in oil prices and related assets, as geopolitical tensions often drive crude futures. Traders should keep an eye on WTI crude, which has been sensitive to Middle Eastern developments. A significant drop in tensions could push oil prices down, impacting energy stocks and ETFs. Conversely, if skepticism grows around the sincerity of these talks, we might see a spike in volatility, especially in the forex market where safe-haven currencies like the USD and JPY could strengthen. Watch for key resistance levels in oil around recent highs, as any failure to break through could signal a bearish reversal. Here’s the thing: while optimism is good, history shows that such announcements can often be overhyped. Traders should remain cautious and monitor the actual developments closely, especially any official agreements or actions taken in the coming days. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on WTI crude prices; a confirmed ceasefire could lead to a significant drop, while skepticism might spike volatility in safe-haven currencies.

From the man himself:”I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WITCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP”More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The recent diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran could shift market sentiment significantly, especially for assets like SOL, currently at $87.91. If these discussions lead to a resolution of hostilities, we might see a surge in risk appetite among investors, potentially boosting crypto markets. SOL, being a prominent player, could benefit from increased capital inflow as traders seek exposure to assets perceived as less risky. Keep an eye on the $90 resistance level; a break above could trigger further bullish momentum. Conversely, if talks falter, we might see a quick pullback, so watch for volatility in the coming days. The broader market context suggests that geopolitical stability often correlates with bullish trends in crypto, so this is a crucial moment for traders. Here’s the thing: while optimism is high, the flip side is that any negative news could lead to sharp sell-offs. Monitor sentiment closely, especially around key announcements from both governments. 📮 Takeaway Watch for SOL to test the $90 resistance level; a break could signal bullish momentum, but stay alert for potential volatility from geopolitical developments.