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FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEWThings were looking pretty
dire for the S&P 500 just an hour ago as Trump’s ultimatum to Iran was
keeping traders on edge for fears of further escalation. That’s now history though
as Trump’s ceasefire announcement on Truth Social turned markets around quickly
on expectations of a potential end to the conflict. The downside for now will
likely remain limited but the risk that this is just Trump jawboning markets again might
also cap the upside. In fact, the Iranian side is saying that there were no direct or indirect contacts with the US.US-Iran headlines will
continue to drive the price action, so traders will need to stay laser focused
and be nimble to adjust their positions.S&P 500
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn
the daily chart, we can see that
the S&P 500 probed below the November
lows and reversed strongly after Trump’s ceasefire. We can expect the sellers
to step in around the resistance at 6,760 where we have also the confluence of
the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see a breakout
to increase the bullish bets into new all-time highs.
S&P 500 TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn
the 4 hour chart, there’s not
much we can add as the sellers will likely step in around the resistance to target
a drop back into the 6,530 support, while the buyers will look for a breakout
to pile in for new highs.S&P 500 TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price is trading much above the upper bound of the average daily range for today. This shouldn’t be
surprising given the importance of Trump’s post. In such instances though, we can
generally see some consolidation or a pullback before the next move.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US PMIs. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims
figures. As a reminder, the focus is mainly on the US-Iran war, so keep an eye
on the headlines.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
đź’ˇ DMK Insight
Trump’s ceasefire announcement just flipped the S&P 500’s narrative, and here’s why that matters: Traders were bracing for volatility as tensions with Iran escalated, but the sudden shift to a ceasefire has sparked a wave of optimism. This could lead to a short-term rally in equities, especially if the S&P 500 breaks above key resistance levels. Watch for a move past recent highs, which could trigger further buying from both retail and institutional investors. The broader market context shows that geopolitical tensions often lead to knee-jerk reactions, but a resolution can stabilize sentiment and encourage risk-on behavior. However, don’t ignore the flip side—if this ceasefire proves temporary or if underlying tensions resurface, we could see a quick reversal. Traders should keep an eye on the daily chart for signs of exhaustion or reversal patterns. Key levels to monitor include the S&P 500’s recent highs and any significant economic indicators that could impact market sentiment in the coming days. The real story is how long this optimism lasts and whether it translates into sustained buying pressure.
đź“® Takeaway
Watch the S&P 500 for a potential breakout above recent highs; a sustained rally could follow if geopolitical tensions ease further.
