The Asia-Pacific economic calendar has only one highlight today and that’s the Australian January trade balance in goods report. The consensus is a surplus of A$3.9 billion, in a solid improvement from +$3.337 billion in December.Yesterday’s price action in AUD was strange as it was a laggard despite the stronger GDP number. I tend to think the drop in gold prices and rout in mining stocks might have discouraged some of the thinking around an investment boom. Naturally, all eyes remain on the Middle East but the market is clearly getting more comfortable with the risks around the war. Today, the US and Israel claimed “local air superiority” and said they’ve struck 1000 targets since Feb 28. I wrote yesterday about the good news in the Iran war and that was a declining number of offensive ballistic missile launches from Iran. The latest day saw just 10-15 launches across all fronts in what’s been a sharp and continued decline that looks like it’s headed to near zero. That doesn’t exclude the tens of thousands of drones in the arsenal but it limits the damage Iran can do to regional oil infrastructure. As for the drones, it looks like the launches are less coordinated and that also lowers the risks. Launching 100 at once can saturate the target’s air defenses but 10 at a time are more likely to be shot down.As for the rest of what we’re watching, it’s all about Korea. The rout in the Kospi yesterday has the market on the highest alert and anything can happen.I lean towards a bounce given the big pickups in risk assets in the past 12 hours but it will be volatile once again. Along the same lines, Japanese stocks will need to stabilize.I will be watching bitcoin, gold and bonds as well. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Australian trade balance is set to improve, but the AUD’s recent weakness raises questions. With a forecasted surplus of A$3.9 billion, traders might expect a bullish reaction in the AUD. However, yesterday’s performance showed the currency lagging despite positive economic signals. This disconnect could indicate underlying market skepticism or profit-taking ahead of the report. If the actual surplus exceeds expectations, we could see a sharp rally in the AUD, especially against the USD. Watch for key resistance levels around AUD/USD 0.70, which could trigger further buying. On the flip side, if the trade balance disappoints, the AUD could face significant selling pressure, potentially dragging down correlated assets like commodities. Keep an eye on the broader market sentiment and any shifts in risk appetite, as these factors could amplify volatility in the forex space. The immediate focus should be on the trade balance release, but also consider the longer-term implications for the AUD as we head into the next quarter. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the Australian trade balance report closely; a surplus above A$3.9 billion could push AUD/USD towards 0.70 resistance.

We are going to get a bounce in Asian stock markets today but the question is: How high.Nikkei futures are trading at 56,310 versus the close yesterday of 54,245 in the cash market. That’s a healthy 3.8% rally following a 3.6% decline yesterday. I should warn that cash prices don’t always follow futures and with volatility this high, there will be two-way trading.The chart tells something of the story. Yes, the decline yesterday was a blow but the index remains up 7.7% year-to-date and a whopping 45% in the past year. The market likes the low multiples in Japanese stock markets and some of the technology.The Bank of Japan leader reiterated plans to continue with rate hikes and that’s not a surprise given rising energy prices. The Japanese PMI yesterday also hit a two-year high in a sign of a cyclical uplift.Eyes will also remain on Korea after the 11% decline yesterday. The drop was blamed on retail as a frenzy into domestic stocks from Korean investors unwound. That’s some real Bill Hwang stuff in what’s turned into a crazy market.The Japanese move has been more measured and that’s why I think it’s a better barometer on whether the selling will stabilize.Ultimately, the economy and interest rates — not the war — will determine what comes next for markets. The complication is that that the war is pushing up oil and natural gas prices, which could force central banks to hike rates or be more hawkish incrementally. But when I look out the crude curve, the market is pricing in a short-term disruption. December WTI is only up to $65 from $62 before the bombs and $58 in the pre-war build up. Even if we double or tripled the anticipated length of the war to 8 or 12 weeks, the year-end outlook for energy could revert. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Asian markets are poised for a bounce, but traders need to gauge the sustainability of this rally. Nikkei futures are up 3.8%, rebounding from a significant 3.6% drop yesterday. This volatility signals a potential short-term trading opportunity, but the real question is whether this bounce can hold. Look for resistance around the previous highs to determine if this rally has legs. If the Nikkei can break above the recent highs, it could trigger further buying, but a failure to hold these gains might lead to another sell-off. Keep an eye on global sentiment and any economic data releases that could impact market direction. The broader context shows that while a bounce is expected, it’s essential to monitor for signs of weakness or reversal. Traders should watch the 56,500 level closely; a break above could indicate a stronger bullish trend, while a drop back below 56,000 might suggest a return to bearish sentiment. Also, consider how this bounce might affect correlated markets like the Hang Seng or S&P 500, as they often move in tandem with the Nikkei. 📮 Takeaway Watch the 56,500 resistance level on the Nikkei; a break could signal further upside, while a drop below 56,000 may indicate renewed bearish pressure.

The China National People’s Congress kicks off today and the five-year growth targets and plan are out, with Reuters obtaining a copy.2026 GDP target set at 4.5% to 5%CPI target set at around 2%Growth rate set for ‘reasonable rate’ for the next five yearsWill set 2026 budget deficit at 4% of GDPPlan will stick to strategic aim of expanding domestic demandWill implement more proactive fiscal policyUnchanged quote on local government special bondsWill set up efforts to improve people’s livelihoodsAims to achieve greater self-reliance and strength in science and technologyWill address risks from real estate, local gov’t debt, small and medium local financial institutionsWill make fiscal policy play a positive role in boosting consumption and expanding investmentAims to realize a ‘notable’ increase in household consumption as a share of GDPWill cultivate industries such as future energy, quantum tech, embodied intelligence (robots?), brain-computer interface and 6GThe headline here is the more-proactive fiscal policy but the market isn’t going to take that at face value as we’ve heard it many times before without any resulting jump in growth numbers or consumption. So they’re hitting all the right notes but the market isn’t going to be easily convinced that the symphony has a better conductor. Markets would really like to see some strong actions to end the malaise in the economy but that just hasn’t been Xi’s style. In terms of the growth number, the 4.5% to 5% range is the lowest official number since 1991 but the economy is so much bigger now so ratcheting down to a slightly lower range will be seen as a reflection of realism rather than an admission of defeat. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight China’s growth targets are out, and here’s why that matters for traders: Setting a GDP target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026 signals a cautious approach amid global economic uncertainties. This conservative estimate could impact commodity prices, particularly in metals and energy, as China’s demand is a significant driver. A CPI target of around 2% suggests the government is aiming to maintain stability, which might limit aggressive monetary easing. Traders should watch how these targets influence the yuan and related forex pairs, especially if they lead to shifts in investor sentiment. But there’s a flip side: if the market perceives these targets as too conservative, it could lead to a sell-off in Chinese equities and commodities. Keep an eye on the Hang Seng Index and major commodities like copper and oil for potential volatility. Watch for any comments from officials during the Congress that might hint at changes in fiscal policy or stimulus measures, as these could provide actionable insights for positioning in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the Hang Seng Index and commodities for volatility as China’s cautious growth targets could shift market sentiment significantly.

Well, this is moving faster than anyone expected.A federal trade court judge just told the Trump administration to start cutting checks — ordering refunds on the massive pile of tariffs the Supreme Court struck down last month. This is a significant potential bit of stimulus for the US economy as it relates to $130 billion. Judge Eaton isn’t in the mood to wait around. The the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade judge issued a written order directing the administration to begin the process of refunding importers and wants updates on Friday.According to the WSJ, the government tried to get a pause while it appeals. Denied. A DOJ lawyer said they hadn’t even figured out their position on refunds yet. “Your position is clear,” the judge said. “The Supreme Court told you what your position is.”Over 2,000 lawsuits are now stacked up from everyone from Costco to FedEx to Pandora looking to get their money back. The mechanics of actually unwinding all of this are still messy — CBP says it would have to manually review millions of import entries. The judge’s response? “We live in the age of computers.”The administration will appeal, and there’s still a long road ahead on the logistics. But the direction of travel here is clear. The money is coming back. The question is just how long it takes.What’s wild is that this whole thing got kicked into gear by one small case — a filtration company — that did something the other 2,000+ filers didn’t: asked for an emergency order. That’s it. One procedural move might have quickly changed the trajectory for every importer in the country and moved up the entire timeline much sooner than the 2-year litigious plan that Trump hinted at.Ultimately, that’s probably good for the Trump administration as it would help to goose the economy.In the short term, it will be worth watching the Friday hearing for next steps. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The recent court ruling mandating tariff refunds could inject significant liquidity into the U.S. economy, and here’s why that matters: For traders, this development isn’t just a legal win; it could lead to increased consumer spending and business investment as companies receive refunds. This potential stimulus might bolster economic growth, impacting sectors like retail and manufacturing. If consumers feel more financially secure, we could see a boost in spending, which would be reflected in economic indicators like GDP growth and consumer confidence. Traders should keep an eye on related assets, particularly those in the consumer discretionary sector, as they may experience upward pressure. However, it’s worth noting that while this could be a short-term boost, the long-term implications depend on how the government reallocates these funds. If the refunds lead to increased inflationary pressures, the Fed might have to adjust its monetary policy, which could create volatility in both equity and forex markets. Watch for any shifts in Fed commentary or economic data releases in the coming weeks that could signal how this stimulus is being absorbed into the economy. 📮 Takeaway Monitor consumer discretionary stocks and economic indicators closely; the tariff refunds could shift market sentiment significantly in the near term.

I can’t remember a time when the national stock market of a large, developed country traded like this. The Kospi rose 12% at the open today and is still up 11.4%. That’s after an 11% decline yesterday.If this were a time of covid or there was a war in the Korean peninsula, these moves would be understandable but the war is 6500 kilometers away and the effects are only tangential via energy prices.What’s clear is that a mania swept over Korean stocks after years of ultra-depressed multiples. The gains were kicked off by memory stocks and the broader market taking a closer look at Samsung technology. That spread as local traders started trading with leverage and led to gigantic gains last year. Even if the index is cut in half, it still has healthy gains over the past year.In terms of today’s price action, there is a huge rush to buy the dip and an impressive bounce. That puts Korea once again among the year-to-date gainers in global indexes.The volatility is unhealthy though and it suggests unhinged money swashing around in a market that should be much better behaved. For the moment, we can only watch in awe. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Kospi’s wild swing—up 11.4% after an 11% drop—signals extreme volatility and trader uncertainty. Such drastic movements often indicate underlying instability, which can lead to further fluctuations. Traders should be cautious; this kind of volatility could trigger margin calls or panic selling, especially among retail investors. The broader market context suggests that macroeconomic factors, possibly related to interest rates or geopolitical tensions, are at play. Watch for key support and resistance levels in the Kospi; a failure to hold above recent highs could lead to a rapid reversal. This situation might also ripple into related markets, like forex pairs involving the Korean won, which could see increased volatility as traders react to the stock market’s movements. Here’s the thing: while some might see this as a buying opportunity, the risk of further declines is significant. Keep an eye on the next trading session for confirmation of trend direction and potential reversal patterns. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the Kospi closely; if it fails to hold above recent highs, expect increased volatility and potential selling pressure in related markets.

This isn’t a change but it’s worth monitoring as we get inundated with headlines from the National People’s Congress today.It’s also worth watching Chinese stock markets today with gains of around 1% led by AI and chip makers. Consumer stocks are up about 0.5%, which shows that the pledge to boost the consumer isn’t really landing. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Chinese stock markets are showing gains, and here’s why that matters for traders: With the National People’s Congress in session, headlines could influence market sentiment significantly. The 1% rise in AI and chip makers indicates strong investor confidence in tech sectors, which often leads to increased volatility in related markets, including crypto. If this trend continues, it could create a ripple effect, pushing tech stocks higher and possibly affecting crypto assets tied to technological advancements. Keep an eye on consumer stocks as well, which are up 0.5%—this could signal broader economic optimism that might spill over into risk assets like cryptocurrencies. But don’t overlook potential risks. If the headlines from the Congress lean towards regulatory crackdowns or economic slowdowns, it could quickly reverse these gains. Watch for key levels in the Chinese markets; a sustained rally above recent highs could attract more global capital, while any negative news could trigger sell-offs. For now, monitor the daily performance of tech stocks and their correlation with crypto movements, especially in the next few sessions. 📮 Takeaway Watch for how Chinese headlines impact tech stocks; a sustained rally could boost crypto sentiment, while negative news might trigger sell-offs.

Chinese stocks are up more than 1% today after the National People’s Congress revealed growth targets and some government priorities but now we’re getting some details. Chinese consumer stocks are laggards so far, up around 0.5% but we’re getting some notable headlines from the state planner now:Will improve the local tax systemWill better leverage new policy-backed financial instruments and replenish the capital of major projectsWill move consumption tax collection for some items down towards producersWill adjust and optimize the scope and rate of consumption taxAgain, we’re not getting details here but it looks like some real action. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Chinese stocks are showing a solid uptick, but consumer stocks are lagging behind, and here’s why that matters: The recent announcements from the National People’s Congress regarding growth targets signal a potential shift in market sentiment, especially for sectors tied to government priorities. While the overall market is up over 1%, the consumer sector’s mere 0.5% gain raises red flags about underlying demand and consumer confidence. Traders should be cautious here; the divergence suggests that while institutional investors may be optimistic, retail sentiment could be faltering. If consumer stocks continue to underperform, it may indicate broader economic weaknesses that could ripple through related sectors like retail and services. Keep an eye on key technical levels for the broader Chinese index. A sustained move above recent highs could confirm bullish momentum, but if consumer stocks fail to catch up, it might lead to a pullback. Watch for any further guidance from the state planner, as their comments could provide insight into future policy directions that might impact these lagging sectors. The next few trading sessions will be crucial to gauge whether this is a temporary blip or a sign of deeper issues in consumer sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the performance of Chinese consumer stocks closely; a failure to rally could signal broader economic concerns and impact related sectors.

This was out a few hours ago but it’s important context in why oil prices are back near the post-war highs.Previously on Wednesday, a report said that Iran had reached out the US about negotiations. They were Axios reports saying that Iranians had sent messages over the last few days but that the US didn’t respond.This report from Iran’s Tasnim news agency cites an Iranian official who said:”No ⁠message has been sent ​from Iran to the ​US, nor will any response be given to US messages. Iran’s ​armed forces have prepared ​themselves for a long war.”Along those lines, Politico reports that the US has asked intelligence officers to post for 100 days. That’s a much longer timeline than the 4-5 weeks that Trump floated but it could just be about contingencies.In any case, WTI crude is up $2.42 to $77.09. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Oil prices are flirting with post-war highs, and here’s why that matters: geopolitical tensions are heating up. The recent outreach from Iran to the US regarding negotiations could signal a shift in the supply dynamics, which is crucial for traders. If these talks lead to any easing of sanctions or increased production, we might see a dip in prices. Conversely, if negotiations stall or escalate tensions, prices could surge further. Traders should keep an eye on the $90 per barrel mark, as breaking above that could trigger more buying pressure. But don’t overlook the broader context—OPEC’s production decisions and global demand recovery are still at play. If Iran’s situation stabilizes, it could lead to a more balanced market, impacting not just oil but also related assets like energy stocks and ETFs. Watch for any news from the negotiations in the coming days, as that could dictate short-term price movements significantly. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on oil prices around the $90 mark; any news from Iran-US negotiations could trigger significant volatility.