FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold started to rally steadily on Friday after we got various reports of evacuations that indicated a possible strike to follow over the weekend. Sure enough, the US and Israel launched a coordinated attack against various Iran’s targets that included key officials and military facilities. Their operation managed to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and many other regime officials. Iran responded with broad attacks against Israel and US bases in various Gulf regions like Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates aimed at building pressure to end the war. The Strait of Hormuz is virtually closed as traffic fell sharply after at least three ships were attacked. Gold opened with a positive gap and, after a little pullback during the Asian session, started rising again towards the all-time highs. The main risk for gold buyers is now a de-escalation, while a prolonged war should keep the precious metal supported into new record highs. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold extended the gains above the 5,400 level as the US-Iran conflict triggered a flight to safety. The all-time highs are now the natural target. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the record highs to position for a drop back into the major trendline around the 4,600 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new record highs.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the 5,100 support where there’s another trendline for confluence. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the break above the recent high saw more buyers piling in as people are now trying to chase the price into new all-time highs. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the most recent swing low at 5,300 to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the trendline around the 5,240 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Wednesday, we have the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. The data might not matter much this week amid the US-Iran conflict. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold’s rally signals a flight to safety amid escalating geopolitical tensions. The coordinated US-Israel strikes on Iran have injected volatility into the markets, prompting traders to seek refuge in gold. Historically, such military actions lead to increased demand for safe-haven assets, and with gold’s recent upward momentum, it’s crucial to monitor key resistance levels. If gold can break above its recent highs, we might see a sustained rally, especially if tensions escalate further. On the flip side, if the situation stabilizes quickly, we could see a pullback. Keep an eye on the $1,900 level as a critical support point; a drop below that could signal a shift in sentiment. For those trading gold, consider the implications on related assets like oil, which often reacts to geopolitical events. A spike in oil prices could further bolster gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation. Watch for any news updates over the weekend that could influence market sentiment and adjust your positions accordingly. 📮 Takeaway Monitor gold closely; a break above $1,900 could signal a strong rally, while a drop below may indicate a shift in market sentiment.

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions fell from previous $159.9K to $159.2K 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight CFTC’s drop in gold net positions signals a shift in trader sentiment that could impact prices. The decline from $159.9K to $159.2K might seem small, but it reflects a broader trend of reduced bullish sentiment among traders. This shift could lead to increased volatility in the gold market, especially if it coincides with any macroeconomic news or shifts in interest rates. Traders should keep an eye on how this affects gold’s price action, particularly if it breaks below key support levels. Here’s the thing: while some might interpret this as a bearish signal, it could also present a buying opportunity if prices dip significantly. If gold approaches critical support, say around $1,800, it could attract bargain hunters looking to capitalize on lower prices. Watch for any changes in positioning over the next few weeks, as this could indicate whether traders are repositioning for a potential rally or further declines. 📮 Takeaway Monitor gold’s price around $1,800 for potential buying opportunities as CFTC positions shift, indicating changing trader sentiment.

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions down to ¥11.5K from previous ¥13K 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Japan’s CFTC JPY net positions just dropped significantly, and here’s why that matters: A decline from ¥13K to ¥11.5K indicates a shift in trader sentiment, suggesting that speculators are becoming more bearish on the yen. This change could be a reaction to ongoing economic pressures or shifts in monetary policy expectations, particularly as the Bank of Japan navigates its ultra-loose stance. Traders should keep an eye on how this impacts the USD/JPY pair, especially if it tests key support levels. If the yen continues to weaken, it could trigger further selling pressure, impacting correlated assets like Japanese equities. But don’t overlook the flip side: if the yen stabilizes or shows signs of recovery, we could see a swift reversal in positions. Watch for any economic data releases or central bank comments that might influence sentiment. The next few weeks will be crucial, so keep an eye on the ¥11.5K level for potential bounce or breakdown scenarios. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the ¥11.5K net position level closely; a sustained drop could signal further yen weakness, impacting USD/JPY and Japanese equities.

The US Dollar (USD) lost ground this week amid geopolitical uncertainty and the United States (US) trade policy developments after the Supreme Court ruled the Trump administration’s tariffs illegal and he responded with a fresh round of levies. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The USD’s recent decline signals potential volatility ahead for traders. Geopolitical tensions and shifting trade policies are shaking up the dollar’s stability. The Supreme Court’s ruling against the Trump administration’s tariffs could lead to a reevaluation of trade strategies, especially with fresh levies being introduced. This uncertainty might push traders to seek safer assets or diversify into commodities like gold, which often benefits from a weaker dollar. Keep an eye on the dollar index; if it breaks below key support levels, it could trigger further selling pressure. Conversely, if the dollar rebounds, it might indicate a stronger risk appetite among investors. For those trading forex, monitoring the correlation between the USD and emerging markets is crucial. A weaker dollar could boost emerging market currencies, creating opportunities for long positions. Watch for any news regarding trade negotiations or additional tariffs, as these could significantly impact market sentiment and price movements in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Watch the dollar index closely; a break below key support could signal further declines, impacting forex and commodities trading strategies.

A red-hot inflation report in the United States and rising tensions between the latter and Iran pushed Gold price higher on Friday, past the $5,260 figure, posting solid gains of over 1.20%. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold’s recent surge past $5,260 is a clear reaction to inflation fears and geopolitical tensions. With inflation data showing unexpected strength, traders are flocking to safe-haven assets like Gold. This uptick could signal a shift in market sentiment, especially as the U.S. grapples with rising prices and potential conflict with Iran. For those trading Gold, keep an eye on the $5,300 resistance level; a break above could lead to further gains. Conversely, if inflation pressures ease or tensions de-escalate, we might see a pullback. Also, watch how this impacts correlated assets like Silver and Bitcoin, which often react to shifts in Gold prices. The next few days will be crucial as traders digest this news and position themselves accordingly. 📮 Takeaway Monitor Gold’s movement around the $5,300 level; a breakout could signal further upside amid ongoing inflation concerns.

Early Saturday, United States (US) President Donald Trump announced that the US had begun “major combat operations” in Iran, following Israel’s pre-emptive missile attacks against Tehran. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight So, the US just ramped up military operations in Iran, and here’s why that matters: geopolitical tensions are about to spike, which could send oil prices soaring. With the market already sensitive to Middle Eastern conflicts, traders should brace for volatility in energy stocks and commodities. Look at how crude oil has reacted in similar situations—historically, prices tend to surge during military escalations. If oil breaks above key resistance levels, say around $80, we could see a bullish trend that impacts not just oil but also related sectors like energy ETFs and even the broader market. On the flip side, equities might take a hit as investors flee to safety, so keep an eye on safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar. Watch for immediate reactions in the futures market; a significant move in oil could trigger cascading effects across commodities and equities. The next few days will be crucial—monitor oil prices closely for any breakout or reversal patterns. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on crude oil prices; a break above $80 could signal a bullish trend amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Transocean’s debt load has declined but the most important piece of news has so far been that of Transocean acquiring Valaris (VAL), its fellow offshore driller, that has been reporting positive profitability and is virtually free of debt. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Transocean’s acquisition of Valaris is a game-changer for its financial health and market positioning. With Valaris being nearly debt-free and profitable, this move could significantly bolster Transocean’s balance sheet, making it more attractive to investors. The reduction in debt load is a positive sign, but the real impact lies in how this acquisition enhances Transocean’s operational capabilities and market share in the offshore drilling sector. Traders should keep an eye on how this acquisition affects Transocean’s stock performance in the coming weeks, especially as it integrates Valaris’ assets. If Transocean can leverage Valaris’ profitability effectively, we might see a bullish trend emerge. However, potential risks include integration challenges and market volatility in response to earnings reports. Watch for any updates on operational synergies or financial forecasts from Transocean, as these could serve as key indicators for future price movements. If the stock breaks above recent resistance levels, it could signal a strong buying opportunity. 📮 Takeaway Monitor Transocean’s stock for potential bullish trends following the Valaris acquisition, especially if it breaks above recent resistance levels.

South Korea Trade Balance registered at $15.5B above expectations ($10B) in February 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight South Korea’s trade balance hitting $15.5B is a big deal for traders right now. This figure not only beats expectations but also signals a robust export performance, which could strengthen the Korean won against major currencies. For forex traders, this might mean a potential bullish trend for the KRW, especially if the momentum continues into the next month. Keep an eye on the USD/KRW pair; a sustained move below recent support levels could indicate further upside for the won. But here’s the flip side: if global demand falters or geopolitical tensions rise, this positive trade balance could quickly turn sour. Traders should monitor related economic indicators, like manufacturing data or consumer sentiment, to gauge the sustainability of this trend. Watch for any shifts in the Bank of Korea’s monetary policy as well, as they could react to these figures, impacting interest rates and currency valuations. 📮 Takeaway Watch the USD/KRW pair closely; a sustained move below recent support could signal further strength for the Korean won.

Citing a Tehran Times post on X, Reuters reported on Sunday that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy announced via VHF radio that no vessels are permitted to cross the Strait of Hormuz, effectively declaring the critical maritime chokepoint closed. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The IRGC’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a game-changer for oil traders right now. This chokepoint is vital, with about 20% of the world’s oil passing through it. If this closure persists, expect immediate spikes in crude oil prices as supply fears mount. Traders should monitor Brent and WTI futures closely; a sustained breakout above recent resistance levels could signal a bullish trend. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments, as any escalation could lead to further volatility not just in oil but also in related markets like natural gas and shipping stocks. On the flip side, if the closure is resolved quickly, we might see a sharp correction in oil prices, so be ready for both scenarios. Watch for updates from the IRGC and any international responses, as these could dictate market movements in the coming days. 📮 Takeaway Monitor Brent and WTI futures closely; a breakout above resistance could signal a bullish trend as supply fears escalate.