BNY forecasts that Philippines’s central bank Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25% (Feb 19), continuing its easing cycle as growth risks dominate. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight BNY’s forecast of a 25 bps rate cut from the BSP is a significant signal for traders: it highlights the central bank’s response to growth risks in the Philippines. Lower interest rates typically weaken a currency, which could lead to increased volatility in the Philippine peso. Traders should keep an eye on how this rate cut might affect local equities and bonds, as well as foreign investment flows. If the peso depreciates, it could also impact commodities priced in USD, making imports more expensive. Watch for reactions in the forex market, especially around the February 19 announcement, as positioning ahead of the cut could lead to sharp movements. On the flip side, if the BSP surprises with a smaller cut or holds rates steady, expect a potential rally in the peso and local assets. The market’s current sentiment seems to lean towards easing, so any deviation from this could catch traders off guard. Keep an eye on the 4.25% level and monitor economic indicators leading up to the decision for further clues on market direction. 📮 Takeaway Watch the February 19 rate cut decision closely; a 25 bps cut to 4.25% could weaken the peso, impacting forex and local equities.

Gold price dives nearly 1% on a thin liquidity trading session on Monday as US markets are closed in observance of Presidents’ Day, while China’s new year celebration will keep the markets closed for over a week. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,992 after reaching a daily high of $5,054. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold’s nearly 1% drop in a thin liquidity environment highlights the risks of trading during holidays. With US markets closed for Presidents’ Day and China celebrating the New Year, liquidity is low, making price swings more volatile. Traders should be cautious, as this environment can amplify movements, especially if unexpected news hits. Keep an eye on the $4,992 level; a break below could signal further downside, while a rebound might indicate a buying opportunity as liquidity returns. Historically, post-holiday sessions can see a return to normal trading patterns, so watch for volume spikes later this week. The flip side is that this dip could attract bargain hunters looking to capitalize on lower prices. If gold rebounds, it might draw in retail traders, pushing prices back up. Monitor the upcoming economic data releases, as they could provide the catalyst for the next move. 📮 Takeaway Watch the $4,992 level closely; a break below could lead to further declines, while a rebound might signal a buying opportunity as liquidity returns.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/SGD is trading in a subdued range near recent lows, with softer US CPI and labour data keeping Fed cut expectations intact and weighing on the Dollar. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight USD/SGD is hovering near recent lows, and here’s why that matters: With the latest US CPI and labor data showing softness, expectations for a Fed rate cut are solidifying. This environment typically weakens the Dollar, making it crucial for traders to monitor USD/SGD closely. If the pair breaks below its recent lows, it could trigger further selling pressure, especially if the broader market sentiment shifts towards risk-on assets. Look for potential support levels that could provide a bounce-back opportunity, but be cautious of any sudden volatility as traders react to upcoming economic indicators. On the flip side, if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance unexpectedly, we could see a sharp reversal in USD/SGD. Keep an eye on the next CPI release and any Fed commentary for clues on future direction. For now, the subdued range suggests a wait-and-see approach might be prudent, but be ready to act if key levels are breached. 📮 Takeaway Watch for USD/SGD to break below recent lows; a sustained move could signal further weakness in the Dollar and potential trading opportunities.

Major currency pairs traded little changed on Monday as stock and bond markets in the United States (US) remained closed due to the Presidents’ Day holiday. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight With US markets closed for Presidents’ Day, currency pairs are likely to see muted volatility today. Traders should note that the lack of movement in major currency pairs could signal a consolidation phase, especially after recent fluctuations. This pause might be a strategic breather before the next wave of economic data releases, which could reignite volatility. Keep an eye on upcoming indicators like inflation reports or employment data, as they could shift sentiment quickly. Also, consider that while the US is offline, other markets may still react to global developments, potentially impacting forex pairs. If you’re trading, watch for any unexpected news from Europe or Asia that could lead to sudden price movements. The real story is how traders position themselves ahead of the next major data drop, so stay alert for any shifts in momentum as the week progresses. 📮 Takeaway Watch for volatility spikes later this week as economic data is released; stay alert for any unexpected news from Europe or Asia that could impact currency pairs.

Silver price retreats during the North American session on Monday by nearly 1%, after reaching a daily high of $78.20. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Silver’s nearly 1% drop after hitting $78.20 signals potential volatility ahead. This retreat could indicate profit-taking by traders who capitalized on the recent highs. With silver’s price action closely tied to broader market sentiment and inflation concerns, this pullback might also reflect a shift in risk appetite among investors. Watch for how silver interacts with key support levels around $75; a break below could trigger further selling pressure. On the flip side, if silver rebounds and reclaims the $78 level, it could attract fresh buying interest, especially from institutional players looking for a hedge against inflation. Keep an eye on the upcoming economic data releases, as they could provide additional context for silver’s movement. If inflation numbers come in higher than expected, we might see renewed interest in precious metals as a safe haven. 📮 Takeaway Watch for silver’s performance around the $75 support level; a break could lead to increased selling pressure.

Commerzbank’s Moses Lim notes that the Malaysian Ringgit is Asia’s best performer this year, supported by robust growth, FDI into data centres and tech supply chains, and firm exports. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Malaysian Ringgit’s strong performance is a signal for traders to consider regional dynamics. With robust growth and increased foreign direct investment (FDI) in tech sectors, the Ringgit’s strength could influence currency pairs involving the MYR. Traders should monitor how these factors play out in the coming weeks, especially as global economic conditions fluctuate. If the Ringgit continues to gain, it might affect related assets like tech stocks or commodities tied to Malaysian exports. Keep an eye on key resistance levels for the MYR against major currencies, as any breakout could present trading opportunities. Conversely, if global economic sentiment shifts negatively, the Ringgit could face headwinds despite its current strength, highlighting the need for a cautious approach. 📮 Takeaway Watch for the Malaysian Ringgit’s performance against major currencies; a breakout could signal trading opportunities, especially with ongoing FDI in tech.

On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will unveil its latest monetary policy meeting decision, and so far, money markets have priced in a 99% chance to hold the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25%, according to Prime Market Terminal interest rate probability tool.  🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The RBNZ’s decision to likely hold the OCR at 2.25% is crucial for traders focused on the NZD/USD pair. With a 99% probability priced in, any deviation from this expectation could trigger significant volatility. If the RBNZ surprises the market with a rate hike or cut, expect a sharp reaction in the NZD, potentially breaking key technical levels. Traders should monitor the NZD/USD closely, especially around the announcement time, as it could lead to a breakout or breakdown depending on the sentiment shift. Additionally, this decision could have ripple effects on other currencies, particularly AUD/NZD, as traders reassess their positions based on relative interest rate expectations. Keep an eye on the 0.6000 level for NZD/USD, as a break above or below could signal the next move. Here’s the thing: while the market’s leaning heavily towards no change, the real story is how traders react to any hints of future policy shifts. Watch for any forward guidance from the RBNZ that could influence market sentiment beyond this meeting. 📮 Takeaway Watch the NZD/USD closely around the RBNZ announcement; a surprise move could break the 0.6000 level and trigger volatility.

DBS strategist Philip Wee notes that China continues to guide the CNY stronger even after the first US‑China tariff truce, with USD/CNY breaking below 7.00 and trading firmer within its band. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight China’s push for a stronger CNY is a game changer for forex traders right now. With USD/CNY breaking below 7.00, this signals a potential shift in market sentiment and could impact trading strategies significantly. A firmer CNY may lead to reduced volatility in the forex market, affecting not just USD/CNY but also related pairs like AUD/CNY and EUR/CNY. Traders should keep an eye on how this strength influences commodity prices, especially in metals and energy, as a stronger yuan could dampen demand for imports. But here’s the flip side: if the U.S. responds with new tariffs or if economic data from China disappoints, we could see a quick reversal. Watch for key levels around 6.95 and 7.05 for potential breakouts or reversals. The immediate focus should be on upcoming economic indicators from both countries, as they could provide further clarity on this evolving situation. 📮 Takeaway Monitor USD/CNY around 6.95 and 7.05; any breakouts could signal significant shifts in forex strategies.

BNY analysts expect Bank Indonesia (BI) to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% (February 19) and maintaining an easing bias but with a high bar for further cuts. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Bank Indonesia’s decision to hold the policy rate at 4.75% is crucial for traders focused on the Indonesian rupiah and regional markets. With analysts noting a maintained easing bias, the central bank is signaling a cautious approach to further cuts, which could impact inflation expectations and foreign investment flows. Traders should keep an eye on the rupiah’s performance against major currencies, especially if external factors like U.S. interest rates shift. A stable rate could support the rupiah in the short term, but any unexpected economic data could trigger volatility. Watch for key economic indicators in the coming weeks, particularly inflation and GDP growth, as these will influence BI’s future decisions. If inflation remains above target, the likelihood of rate cuts diminishes, potentially strengthening the rupiah further against the dollar. But here’s the flip side: if global economic conditions worsen or if the Fed signals a more aggressive tightening, we could see capital flight from emerging markets, including Indonesia. So, traders should monitor not just BI’s moves but also global monetary policy shifts that could affect sentiment towards the rupiah. 📮 Takeaway Watch for inflation and GDP data in Indonesia; a stable 4.75% rate could support the rupiah, but global shifts may introduce volatility.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights that Malaysia’s final 4Q25 GDP grew 6.3% year‑on‑year, the fastest since 4Q22, lifting full‑year 2025 growth to 5.2%, above the official 4.0%–4.8% range. Growth was driven by domestic demand, exports, tourism and AI‑related tech. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Malaysia’s 4Q25 GDP growth of 6.3% is a game changer for traders focused on Southeast Asian markets. This robust growth, driven by domestic demand and AI tech, signals a potential shift in investment flows. Traders should keep an eye on the Malaysian Ringgit and related equities, as this performance could attract foreign investment, boosting the currency and local stocks. The full-year growth projection of 5.2% also exceeds expectations, suggesting that economic momentum is building. If this trend continues, we might see a bullish sentiment in the region, especially in sectors tied to tourism and technology. However, it’s worth noting that such rapid growth could also lead to inflationary pressures, which central banks might address with tighter monetary policy. Watch for any shifts in interest rates or inflation indicators that could impact market sentiment. In the short term, keep an eye on the Ringgit’s performance against the USD and any related ETF movements. A breakout above key resistance levels could signal a strong entry point for traders looking to capitalize on this growth narrative. 📮 Takeaway Watch the Malaysian Ringgit for potential bullish moves as GDP growth exceeds expectations; monitor key resistance levels for entry points.