Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish notes that Brazil remains a leading destination for equity portfolio flows in 2026, helped by attractive valuations after the 2022–24 compression. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Brazil’s equity market is gaining traction, and here’s why that matters for traders: With attractive valuations post-2022–24 compression, Brazil is poised to attract significant portfolio flows in 2026. This trend could signal a shift in investor sentiment, especially as global markets grapple with volatility. Traders should keep an eye on Brazilian equities, particularly sectors like commodities and finance, which are likely to benefit from increased foreign investment. The broader context shows that as developed markets face tightening monetary policies, emerging markets like Brazil could offer better growth prospects. However, it’s worth noting that while the inflow of capital is promising, potential risks such as political instability or currency fluctuations could dampen returns. Traders should monitor key indicators like the Bovespa index and currency pairs involving the Brazilian real to gauge market sentiment. Watch for any significant movements in these areas as they could provide actionable insights into the timing of trades or investment strategies. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on Brazilian equities and the Bovespa index as portfolio flows increase; monitor for volatility and political developments that could impact returns.

The Euro (EUR) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, as the Yen comes under pressure following softer-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from Japan. At the time of writing, EUR/JPY is trading around 181.76, up nearly 0.20% on the day. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Euro’s rise against the Yen signals shifting market dynamics, driven by Japan’s disappointing GDP figures. With EUR/JPY trading at 181.76, the Yen’s weakness could prompt traders to reassess their positions. This movement is particularly relevant as it reflects broader economic concerns in Japan, which could lead to further easing measures from the Bank of Japan. Traders should keep an eye on the 182.00 resistance level; a break above could trigger additional buying momentum. Conversely, if the Euro fails to maintain its strength, we might see a pullback towards 180.50, which could offer a buying opportunity for those looking to capitalize on potential rebounds. It’s worth noting that this trend could also impact related currency pairs, such as EUR/USD and JPY/USD, as shifts in sentiment often ripple through the forex market. Keep an eye on upcoming economic releases from both regions, as they could further influence these dynamics. 📮 Takeaway Watch for EUR/JPY to break above 182.00 for potential bullish momentum, while a drop below 180.50 could signal a reversal.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) retreats during the North American session on Monday amid thin liquidity conditions as US markets remain closed in observance of the President’s Day. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3635, down 0.12%. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The GBP’s slight dip to 1.3635 amid thin liquidity highlights the impact of market closures. With US markets closed for President’s Day, trading volumes are low, which can amplify price movements. This environment often leads to erratic behavior in currency pairs like GBP/USD. Traders should be cautious, as thin liquidity can result in wider spreads and increased volatility. If the GBP continues to struggle against the dollar, watch for support levels around 1.3600. A break below that could signal further downside, while a rebound could test resistance near 1.3700. It’s also worth noting that the current retreat might not reflect broader market sentiment, as the lack of US participation could skew the price action. Keep an eye on upcoming economic data releases that could influence the GBP’s trajectory once liquidity returns, particularly any news from the UK regarding inflation or interest rates, which could provide clearer direction. 📮 Takeaway Monitor GBP/USD closely; a drop below 1.3600 could trigger further selling, while a rebound above 1.3700 may indicate strength.

A Reuters poll conducted on February 10-16 revealed that economists are eyeing a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) at its next meeting in March. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight A potential 25-basis-point rate cut from the BoE could shift market dynamics significantly. Traders should be aware that such a move might not only impact GBP pairs but also ripple through equities and commodities. If the BoE follows through, expect volatility in the forex market, especially for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP. Watch for key resistance levels around 1.40 for GBP/USD and 0.85 for EUR/GBP, as these could be pivotal in determining the next trend. Additionally, monitor the broader economic indicators leading up to the meeting, like inflation and employment data, which could sway the BoE’s decision. The flip side is that if the cut is already priced in, we might see a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ scenario, leading to a potential reversal in GBP strength post-announcement. Keep an eye on market sentiment and positioning ahead of March; it could provide clues on how traders are interpreting the BoE’s intentions. 📮 Takeaway Watch for the BoE’s March meeting; a 25-basis-point cut could trigger volatility in GBP pairs, especially around key levels like 1.40 for GBP/USD.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes that UK rate markets now price another Bank of England cut as early as next month after a dovish MPC update. Governor Bailey and MPC member Mann have signalled openness to easing, contingent on data. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight UK rate markets are now pricing in a potential Bank of England cut next month, and here’s why that matters: The dovish tone from Governor Bailey and MPC member Mann is shifting trader sentiment, suggesting that the central bank is ready to pivot if economic data supports it. This could lead to increased volatility in GBP pairs, especially if traders react to upcoming inflation or employment data. If the BoE does cut rates, we could see GBP/USD test key support levels, particularly around recent lows. Watch for the 1.20 level as a critical threshold; a break below could trigger further selling pressure. On the flip side, if data comes in stronger than expected, it could lead to a quick reversal in sentiment. Traders should keep an eye on market reactions to economic releases over the next few weeks, as these will be pivotal in shaping expectations around the BoE’s next move. The market’s current positioning suggests that any unexpected strength in the UK economy could lead to a short squeeze in GBP shorts, making this a high-stakes situation for both bulls and bears. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the 1.20 support level in GBP/USD; a break could signal further downside if the BoE cuts rates next month.

The Pound Sterling retreats during the North American session amid thin liquidity conditions as US markets remain closed in observance of the President’s Day. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3635, down 0.12%. Read More… 🔗 Source

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $76.50 at the time of writing, down 0.70% on the day, with Silver starting the week on a weaker footing after failing to extend its recent rebound. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Silver’s recent dip to around $76.50 is a red flag for bulls: here’s why. After a failed attempt to extend its rebound, silver is showing signs of weakness that could impact trading strategies. Traders should be cautious, as this downturn might signal a broader trend, especially if it breaks below key support levels. The 50-day moving average is a critical watchpoint; if silver falls below this, we could see a cascade effect, impacting not just silver but also related assets like gold and industrial metals. Additionally, with the current macroeconomic backdrop, including inflation concerns and interest rate decisions, silver’s volatility could increase, making it essential to monitor trading volumes and sentiment closely. On the flip side, if silver manages to hold above $76.00, it could present a buying opportunity for those looking to capitalize on potential rebounds. Keep an eye on the daily close; a strong finish above $77.00 could shift sentiment back in favor of bulls, while a close below $76.00 might trigger further selling pressure. 📮 Takeaway Watch for silver to hold above $76.00; a close below this level could trigger more selling pressure.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that China’s Q4 2025 current account surplus hit a record USD 242 billion, or 4.9% of GDP, reinforcing the view that the Yuan remains tightly managed. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight China’s record Q4 2025 current account surplus of USD 242 billion is a big deal for traders. This surplus, which represents 4.9% of GDP, signals that the Yuan is still under tight control by the Chinese government. For forex traders, this could mean continued strength in the Yuan against other currencies, especially if the surplus leads to increased foreign investment. Keep an eye on how this affects USD/CNY pairs, as a strong Yuan could put downward pressure on the dollar. Additionally, this surplus might influence commodity markets, particularly those tied to Chinese demand, like oil and metals. But here’s the flip side: if the Yuan is too tightly managed, it could lead to volatility if the market perceives any shifts in policy. Traders should watch for any comments from Chinese officials regarding currency management, as these could trigger significant moves. Overall, monitor the USD/CNY level closely; a break below recent support could signal a stronger Yuan trend. 📮 Takeaway Watch the USD/CNY pair closely; a break below recent support could indicate a stronger Yuan trend driven by China’s record current account surplus.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades little changed against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as a firmer Greenback keeps the Aussie on the defensive. At the time of writing, AUD/USD hovers around 0.7072, easing from three-year highs near 0.7147 touched late last week. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight AUD/USD is stuck in a tight range, and here’s why that matters: The recent pullback from the three-year highs near 0.7147 indicates that traders are cautious amid a stronger USD. This defensive posture could be linked to upcoming economic data releases from the U.S. that may influence Fed policy. If the Greenback continues to show strength, we could see AUD/USD testing lower support levels. Watch for the 0.7050 mark; a break below could trigger further selling pressure. On the flip side, if the Aussie manages to regain momentum, the 0.7100 level could act as a key resistance point. Traders should keep an eye on broader market sentiment and any shifts in risk appetite, especially with the potential for volatility around U.S. economic indicators this week. The interplay between commodity prices and the AUD also warrants attention, as a drop in key exports could further weigh on the currency. Overall, the current consolidation phase suggests that patience is key, and positioning will depend heavily on upcoming data releases. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the 0.7050 support level for AUD/USD; a break could lead to further downside, while a bounce may target 0.7100 resistance.

Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish notes that Colombia’s Council of State has suspended the government’s 23% minimum‑wage increase, forcing President Petro’s administration to issue a new, economically justified decree within eight days. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Colombia’s wage increase suspension is a big deal for traders watching emerging markets. This decision could signal economic instability, impacting investor sentiment and potentially leading to volatility in Colombian assets. If President Petro’s administration fails to justify a new decree, we might see a dip in the Colombian peso, which could ripple through related markets like commodities and local equities. Traders should keep an eye on the peso’s performance against the dollar, especially if it breaks key support levels. This situation also raises questions about the broader economic policies in Colombia, which could affect foreign investment flows. Watch for any updates from the government in the next eight days, as they could set the tone for market reactions in the short term. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the Colombian peso closely; a failure to issue a justified decree could lead to significant volatility in the coming days.