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ILO unemployment rate 5.0% vs 4.9% expectedPrior 4.9%Employment change 148k vs 104k expectedPrior 25kAverage weekly earnings +4.1% vs +3.8% 3m/y expectedPrior +3.8%; revised to +3.9%Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.4% vs +3.4% 3m/y expectedPrior +3.6%April payrolls change -100kPrior -11k; revised to -28kThose are a softer set of jobs numbers from the UK, with the payrolls change for April also looking rather poor. The 100k drop marks a 0.3% decline in the estimate of payrolled employees to 30.2 million. That comes with the jobless rate also continuing to tick higher, being up 0.5% on the year.On payrolls, ONS is putting out a caveat though in saying that: “The April 2026 estimate should be treated as a provisional estimate and is likely to be revised when more data are received next month. The early April estimate is more uncertain because of the change of tax year.”As for wages, there is a slight divergence with total pay increasing in the three months to March while regular pay is seen dropping in the three months to March. In real terms, the former accelerated to 0.8% (previously 0.6%) while the latter dropped further to 0.1% (previously 0.2%). Still, they continue to represent a slowdown since the latest peak in 2024.With the Middle East crisis set to have more of an impact in the months to follow, it will be interesting to see how the UK labour market holds up. That especially with sectors such as manufacturing, transport, and logistics being squeezed by soaring fuel and shipping costs, while travel and aviation are hampered by reduced number of passengers.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The latest jobs data shows a mixed bag, and here’s why that matters for traders right now: With the ILO unemployment rate ticking up to 5.0% against an expectation of 4.9%, it signals potential weakness in the labor market. The employment change of 148k, significantly above the expected 104k, might seem positive, but the downward revision of prior numbers raises concerns about sustainability. Average weekly earnings rising by 4.1% is a bright spot, but it’s crucial to consider inflationary pressures that could erode purchasing power. Traders should be wary of how these mixed signals could impact central bank policy, especially if the Fed is weighing interest rate hikes against economic growth. Look for volatility in related markets, particularly in equities and forex, as investors digest this data. Key levels to watch are the S&P 500’s support around 4,200 and resistance near 4,300. If the market reacts negatively, it could trigger a sell-off, especially if unemployment continues to rise. Keep an eye on the next payroll report for clearer trends, as it could set the tone for the coming weeks.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for S&P 500 levels around 4,200 and 4,300 as traders react to mixed jobs data impacting market sentiment.
