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ING’s FX Strategist Francesco Pesole expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to deliver a hawkish hold at the 27 May meeting, while warning markets underprice the risk of a surprise hike. He sees new projections signalling tightening from 3Q and looks for two 25bp hikes starting in July.
💡 DMK Insight
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s potential hawkish stance could shake up forex markets significantly. With SOL currently at $85.72, traders should keep an eye on the NZD, especially if the RBNZ surprises with an earlier hike than expected. Pesole’s forecast of two 25bp hikes starting in July suggests a shift in monetary policy that could strengthen the NZD against other currencies, including the USD. If the market hasn’t fully priced in this tightening, we might see volatility as traders adjust their positions. Watch for key levels around the NZD/USD pair; a break above recent resistance could trigger further buying interest. Additionally, keep an eye on how this impacts related assets like AUD and CAD, as they often move in tandem with NZD due to regional economic ties. Here’s the thing: if you’re trading NZD pairs, be prepared for potential whipsaws as the market reacts to any hints from the RBNZ ahead of the meeting. The next few weeks will be crucial for setting up your positions.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the NZD/USD pair closely; a surprise hike could lead to significant volatility and trading opportunities in the coming weeks.
