Headlines:Iran chief negotiator continues to pinpoint violations of existing ceasefire agreementIran navy claims that 15 vessels passed through Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hoursBack from the weekend and still no closer to a US-Iran dealUS president Trump says to “sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end”Gold erases gains as hopes for an imminent US-Iran deal fade. What’s next?Long-term consumer inflation expectations remained stable in April according to ECB surveyEuro area manufacturing activity loses steam as stockpiling surge fades in MayUK May final manufacturing PMI 53.9 vs 53.7 prelimGerman retail sales struggle in April as Middle East conflict continues to weighMarkets:WTI crude up 3.6% to $90.55European indices mostly little changedS&P 500 futures up 0.3%USD and GBP lead, NZD lags on the dayUS 10-year yields up 0.2 bps to 4.46%Gold down 0.6% to $4,506Bitcoin down 1.3% to $72,614It’s a brand new week but it feels like we are stuck in the same old loop once again.The US and Iran are continuing to sort out terms for a deal to be struck, with both sides unable to find common ground on key issues still.Iran continues to point the finger at the US in saying that there remains a violation with the attacks in Lebanon and the US naval blockade still not being lifted. Officials also continue to lambast the US on frequent changes to the framework agreement terms in the past week.Meanwhile, the US continues to want Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and offer some baseline promises on nuclear arrangements. That said, Trump’s latest communique even called to “sit back and relax”. That suggests there is no rush to force an agreement for now.As we get into the new week, oil prices are pushing up again with WTI crude moving back above $90 to start the week. Prices are up 3.6% to $90.55, with optimism on a deal being pushed back a bit.However, equities continue to hold out hope for the most part. Major indices in Europe are little changed but US futures are continuing to nudge higher to start the new week/month. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% with Dow futures up 0.5% while Nasdaq futures are also up 0.3% on the day.In the major currencies space, the dollar is lightly changed and keeping just a little higher so far today. EUR/USD is down 0.1% to 1.1645 with USD/JPY continuing to hover near intervention strike range at 159.50. Meanwhile, USD/CAD is up 0.2% to 1.3830 and AUD/USD down 0.1% to 0.7175 currently.In other markets, bond yields are lightly changed with 10-year Treasury yields sitting at 4.46%. Meanwhile, gold is down 0.6% to $4,506 as the push and pull continues with traders being taken for a ride in this whole deal or no deal saga.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are escalating, and here’s why that matters for traders: geopolitical risks can heavily influence oil prices and currency pairs linked to energy exports. With Iran’s navy reporting 15 vessels passing through the Strait, the potential for conflict is rising. This could lead to supply disruptions, which historically have sent crude oil prices soaring. Traders should keep an eye on WTI and Brent crude futures, especially if they break above key resistance levels. Additionally, the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations adds uncertainty, which could lead to volatility in the forex market, particularly for currencies of oil-dependent economies. Watch for any sudden price movements in oil and related currencies, as these could signal broader market reactions. On the flip side, if tensions ease unexpectedly, we might see a sharp correction in oil prices, creating a potential buying opportunity for those looking to capitalize on short-term fluctuations. Keep an eye on the daily charts for oil and related assets for any breakout patterns or reversal signals.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor crude oil prices closely; a breakout above recent highs could signal increased volatility, while easing tensions may offer a buying opportunity.






