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Risk mood picks up on murmurs about US-Iran talksHow have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?Risk sentiment stays on edge as US-Iran stalemate drags onEUR/USD extends losses amid the US-Iran stalemate; traders await new catalystsSNB’s Schlegel: We have unrestricted room to manoeuvre on policy rate, FX interventionsGermany April Ifo business climate index 84.4 vs 85.5 expectedUSD/JPY crawls toward the 160.00 handle as US-Iran stalemate keeps the US dollar supportedFrance April consumer confidence 84 vs 88 expectedWhat are the main events for today?UK March retail sales +0.7% vs +0.1% m/m expectedFX option expiries for 24 April 10am New York cutOil prices hold firmer in final stretch of the week as US-Iran stalemate continuesBOJ may lean more hawkishly next week to ease pressure on the yen – NomuraAs it’s been the case since Trump took office, the European session has been mostly rangebound with limited news flow. On the economic data side, the UK retail sales report beat estimates, although the bulk of it came from higher fuel sales. The German IFO, on the other hand, fell to the lowest level since October 2022 as business sentiment tumbled amid the fallout from the Middle East conflict.On the news front, we haven’t got anything meaningful other than SNB’s Schlegel reiterating the central bank’s commitment to price stability and the potential for negative interest rates and FX interventions to reach their goals.Just now, the risk sentiment improved as we got reports that Pakistan may announce today that talks between Iran and the US will resume. Other reports are also saying that Iran’s foreign minister is expected to arrive in Islamabad tonight.The optimism is back but the recent track record hasn’t been great with markets rallying into the weekend on deal hopes and then giving everything back on Monday as talks fall apart.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Risk sentiment is shifting as US-Iran talks spark cautious optimism, but traders need to stay alert. The ongoing stalemate between the US and Iran has kept markets on edge, particularly affecting the EUR/USD pair, which is extending its losses. This situation highlights the fragility of risk appetite; any breakthrough in negotiations could lead to a sharp reversal in risk assets, while continued tension might exacerbate volatility. Traders should keep an eye on interest rate expectations, especially in light of comments from the SNB’s Schlegel about having ‘unrestricted room’ for policy maneuvers. This could influence the Swiss franc and related pairs, especially if risk aversion spikes. Here’s the thing: while mainstream coverage focuses on the talks, the real story is the potential ripple effects on commodities and safe-haven currencies. If the talks fail, we could see a flight to safety, impacting gold and the JPY. Watch for key levels in EUR/USD; a break below recent lows could signal further downside, while any positive news could trigger a short squeeze. Keep an eye on the daily charts for volatility spikes around news releases.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor EUR/USD closely; a break below recent lows could signal further losses, while positive US-Iran news might trigger a sharp reversal.
