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US tightens grip on Iraq over Iran-linked groups, halt dollar flows over militia activityJPMorgan sees China property stabilising, boosting outlook for equities.Morgan Stanley flags pause in European equities, sees stock pickers marketJapan exports beat but rising import costs squeeze trade surplusPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8635 (vs. estimate at 6.8233)Australia’s growth pulse cools, Leading Index dips below trendTrump weighs extending Jones Act waiver. Policy shift eases US fuel costs amid Iran warTrump rambling, wants a deal but also threatens to “blow up the rest of their Country”Maritime crackdown widens against Iran-linked shipping. Oil tanker seized in Indian OceanJPMorgan raises S&P 500 target to 7,600 (from 7,200). AI, tech earnings drive bullish viewJapan March trade data: Surplus shrinks. Imports and exports both higher than expectedJPMorgan turns selectively bearish US dollar post-ceasefire, favour high-yield, risk FXMilitary planners set to bypass the clowns and reopen the Strait of Hormuz themselvesCanada says USMCA review is a checkpoint, not a cliffA wild ride for oil prices with the conflicting US-Iran war headlinesWhite House says Vance trip to Pakistan will not happening TuesdayIran’s Revolutionary Guard source says will not reopen Hormuz long as blockade continuesIran has not yet accepted Trump’s ceasefire. Iran says it’ll make an announcement soon.Trump says will extend ceasefire for now – more to comeSummary:Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely as talks stall; blockade remains
Iran pushes back, calls blockade an act of war, warns it may break it by force
Reports/rumours of internal Iranian divisions add uncertainty
Market reaction relatively calm: gold and US futures edge higher
Oil and FX largely rangebound despite headline volatility
Japan exports beat expectations, but rising import costs flag risksLate in the US session, President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the Iran ceasefire as negotiations appear to have stalled, with neither Vice President Vance nor Iranian officials heading to Islamabad at this stage. Trump said the extension is intended to allow more time for diplomacy, though it remains unclear whether Iran or Israel will formally align with the move. Importantly, the US naval blockade will remain in place.Iranian officials pushed back, arguing that the continued blockade effectively constitutes an act of war, undermining the logic of extending the ceasefire. Tehran also warned it would be prepared to break the blockade by force if it persists, keeping escalation risks firmly in play.Adding to the uncertainty, unconfirmed reports circulated that an Iranian faction supportive of negotiations with the US had been detained by the IRGC, highlighting potential internal divisions within Iran’s leadership.Despite the geopolitical tension, markets took a relatively composed view. Gold tracked higher following the headlines. US equity index futures also moved modestly higher. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei climbed to a fresh all-time high, although broader regional equity performance was mixed.Oil prices traded in a volatile but ultimately rangebound fashion, reflecting the balance between ongoing geopolitical risk and the absence of fresh supply disruption. FX markets were similarly steady, with no clear directional move.On the data front, Japan’s March trade figures showed exports rising 11.7% year-on-year, beating expectations. However, a narrower-than-expected trade surplus and stronger import growth pointed to rising cost pressures, particularly from energy, and highlighted emerging risks to the outlook.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The tightening of US control over Iraq due to Iran-linked militia activity is a significant geopolitical shift that could impact oil prices and regional stability. With JPMorgan’s positive outlook on Chinese property stabilizing, traders should consider how this might influence global equities, particularly in sectors sensitive to commodity prices. The pause in European equities highlighted by Morgan Stanley suggests a cautious approach is warranted, especially for those in cyclical sectors. Look for volatility in the USD/CNY pair, especially with the PBOC’s mid-point setting at 6.8635, which could affect trade flows and investor sentiment. Keep an eye on oil prices, as any escalation in Iraq could lead to supply concerns, impacting not just energy stocks but also broader market sentiment.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for oil price movements and USD/CNY fluctuations, especially with geopolitical tensions in Iraq and China’s property market stabilization influencing global equities.
