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Figure Heloc 
FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEWGold rebounded in the final part of last week on hopes that Iran would accept
the US war-ending proposal after Axios reported the two parties were getting
close to a one-page memo and that US officials were expecting Iran’s response
to several key points in the following 48 hours. That was preceded by Trump
pausing Project Freedom which was interpreted as another step towards a deal. Unfortunately, both Trump
and Iran rejected the respective proposals calling them unacceptable and
leaving the two sides miles apart on any potential agreement. Moreover, Israeli
PM Netanyahu confirmed that the removal of Iranian nuclear material remains an
active war priority, and separate reports indicated that Trump told Netanyahu
directly he wants to go in on Iranian nuclear sites.This kind of headline noise has been going on for several weeks and kept
the markets in rangebound mode as traders continued to wait for new
developments before picking a direction. The unlimited ceasefire is acting as a
floor, while the tensions and lack of breakthrough as a ceiling. In the short-term, a resolution and the reopening of the Strait will likely
support gold on falling oil prices and increased rate cut bets as inflation
worries would ease. On the other hand, if the war restarts, we can expect gold
prices to quickly fall back to March lows. GOLD TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold rebounded in the final part of last week on hopes that Iran would
accept the US war-ending proposal. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened and we got
a little pullback. The price is still trading right in the middle of the two
key trendlines, so there’s not much we can glean from this timeframe. We need
to zoom in to see some more details. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4
HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see the price is bouncing on the key 4,650 support zone. This is where we can
expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position
for a rally back into the 4,890 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will
look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 4,350 level next. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1
HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, the
recent price action might have formed a bullish flag, but we will need a break
above the top trendline to confirm it. For now, the buyers will likely continue
to pile in around the support and target a breakout to the upside, while the
sellers will wait for a break below the support or a rejection around the top
trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we get the US CPI report. On Wednesday, we have the US PPI data. On
Thursday, we get the US Retail Sales report and the latest US Jobless Claims
figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Gold’s recent rebound is tied to geopolitical tensions, and here’s why that matters: The potential for a US-Iran agreement could shift market dynamics significantly. If Iran accepts the proposal, we might see a decrease in geopolitical risk, which typically weighs on gold prices. Traders should keep an eye on how this plays out over the next 48 hours, as any positive news could lead to a sell-off in gold, pushing prices lower. Conversely, if negotiations falter, gold could see a rally as investors flock to safe-haven assets. This scenario highlights the importance of monitoring not just gold, but also related assets like oil, which could react sharply to changes in Middle Eastern stability. Look for key resistance levels around recent highs, and prepare for volatility as the situation develops. Also, consider that mainstream coverage might overlook the broader implications of such agreements on inflation and interest rates, which are crucial for gold’s long-term trajectory. If the US can stabilize relations, it could lead to a more hawkish Fed, impacting gold negatively. So, keep your charts handy and watch for any sudden price movements in the next few days.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for gold’s reaction to the US-Iran proposal over the next 48 hours; a positive outcome could push prices lower, while failure may trigger a rally.
