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Euro area manufacturing activity loses steam as stockpiling surge fades in May

Manufacturing PMI 51.6 vs 51.4 prelimPrior 52.2Euro area manufacturing activity slows down in May as the stockpiling surge from April begins to fade. The headline manufacturing index is a two-month low with the output index dropping to a four-month low in May. That comes as demand conditions take a hit amid rising price pressures in general.New orders rose at the fastest pace in four years during April, largely thanks to stockpiling, and that partially reversed in May. The volume of new orders stagnated on the month, partly driven by a fresh decrease in
new export orders.Besides that, just note that the headline index is also exacerbated by the
suppliers’ delivery times component. The report highlights that: “With the respective
index signalling the worst delays since June 2022, its
contribution to the Manufacturing PMI was positive (longer
delivery times are historically associated with greater
manufacturing activity).”For some context, intensification of supply chain delays are normally
viewed as a sign of busier vendors due to higher demand
and positive in terms of economic growth. However, the Middle East conflict is not a telling sign of that as the deterioration in vendor times is largely tied to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Looking to inflation, the extent to which input prices rose was the
quickest in four years. Meanwhile, prices charged were subsequently
raised, and to the greatest degree in three-and-a-half years. All of this is going to eventually feed through to consumer prices, that especially if the Middle East situation doesn’t change in the weeks/months ahead.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

🔗 Source

💡 DMK Insight

The Euro area’s manufacturing PMI just hit a two-month low, and here’s why that matters: A drop from 52.2 to 51.6 signals a slowdown in manufacturing activity, which could impact economic growth forecasts. The output index falling to a four-month low suggests that demand is weakening, likely affecting related sectors like commodities and forex pairs tied to the euro. Traders should keep an eye on how this impacts the euro against the dollar, especially if the PMI trend continues downward. If the PMI dips below 50, it would indicate contraction, which could lead to a bearish sentiment in the eurozone. But don’t overlook the potential for a short-term bounce if stockpiling resumes or if new orders pick up. Watch for any comments from the European Central Bank regarding interest rates, as this could influence market reactions. Key levels to monitor are the 1.10 mark for EUR/USD and the 1.05 support level. If we see a breach below these levels, it could trigger further selling pressure in the euro.

📮 Takeaway

Watch the EUR/USD closely; a drop below 1.10 could signal further weakness in the euro as manufacturing slows.

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