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Prior was +2.6%GDP -0.2% q/q vs +0.6% priorReal GDP increased 1.7% in 2025Exports rose 1.5% in the fourth quarter, after increasing 0.9% in the third quarter.Imports rose 0.3% December GDP +0.2%The number might not be as bad as it looks as the fourth quarter decrease was largely due to withdrawals of business
inventories following inventory accumulations in the third quarter.For the full year, Canada grew 1.7% in 2025 — the weakest pace since the pandemic year of 2020. The culprit? US-bound exports that never fully recovered after a rough Q2. This is a soft print on the surface and the annual growth figure will raise eyebrows, but the inventory story gives the Bank of Canada some cover to avoid reading too much into it. The BOC already cut four times in 2025, and with the household saving rate holding up at 4.9% for the year and compensation of employees still growing, it’s not a recessionary alarm bell.Watch the per capita number though — that was flat in Q4 after +0.5% prior.Other good news was in the December report. The manufacturing sector rose 1.2% in December. A rebound in machinery manufacturing (+6.6%) largely recouped the declines recorded in the two preceding months.USD/CAD is flat on the day at 1.3679 but rose about 10 pips on this report. The loonie had been higher on the day before the data in large part due to the jump in oil prices today (because of expectations of a US attack on Iran).
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The latest GDP figures show a mixed bag, and here’s why that matters for traders: With real GDP increasing by 1.7% in 2025, the economy appears to be on a growth trajectory, albeit slower than expected. The fourth quarter’s 0.2% growth, while modest, is better than the previous quarter’s contraction. This suggests resilience, but the underlying details—like the 1.5% rise in exports—indicate that trade dynamics are shifting. Traders should watch how these figures affect currency pairs, especially if the dollar strengthens on positive sentiment. However, the increase in imports by 0.3% could signal rising domestic demand, which might pressure inflation. If inflation expectations rise, we could see volatility in forex markets, particularly in USD pairs. Keep an eye on key technical levels; if the dollar index breaks above recent highs, it could trigger further bullish momentum. Conversely, if GDP growth stalls, risk-off sentiment could lead to a flight to safety in assets like gold or the yen. Watch for upcoming economic reports that could provide more clarity on these trends.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the dollar index closely; a break above recent highs could signal bullish momentum, while stalled GDP growth may trigger risk-off sentiment.
