Headlines:Gold remains supported amid US-Iran uncertainty, but downside risks linger with NFP nextOil prices remain supported amid US-Iran uncertainty; traders likely to hedge into weekendMajor currencies not up to much as we get into the final stretch of the weekBavaria February CPI +1.9% vs +2.1% y/y priorFrance February preliminary CPI +1.0% vs +0.8% y/y expectedSpain February preliminary CPI +2.3% vs +2.2% y/y expectedFrance Q4 final GDP +0.2% vs +0.2% q/q prelimSwitzerland Q4 GDP +0.1% vs +0.2% q/q expectedChina’s Politburo: Development process of latest ‘five-year plan’ is “extremely unusual”Markets:US dollar steady, little changed; CHF leads, GBP lags on the dayEuropean equities steady, mostly little changedS&P 500 futures lower by 0.4%, Nasdaq futures down 0.5%WTI crude oil up over 2% to $66.87Gold flat at $5,186 while silver is up 1% to $89.69US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 3.997%Bitcoin down 2.2% to $65,949It was a relatively slower session with markets staying on edge as we approach the closing stages of the week/month.Geopolitical tensions remain in focus as traders and investors await further developments between the US and Iran ahead of the weekend. That is making for a more guarded mood in general, with the dollar holding steadier while risk trades stay on the defensive. Meanwhile, oil prices are staying underpinned with WTI crude up over 2% near the week’s highs at $66.87.In the major currencies space, there wasn’t much action to take note of. The dollar is keeping little changed mostly and more mixed with the bigger news being from Asia trading when China stepped in to slow the yuan appreciation by making it cheaper to buy up the dollar. That didn’t translate to much influence in Europe though.EUR/USD is flat around 1.1803 with large option expiries in play at the 1.1800 mark. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is flat at 1.3475 despite political risks coming in as Labour were humiliated by the Gordon and Denton by-election results. Then, USD/JPY is down slightly by 0.2% to 155.83 but there wasn’t anything in it with the pair ranging near the 156.00 mark on the session.Looking to equities, major indices in Europe kept a steadier mood with light changes and a more mixed showing. The selloff in Wall Street yesterday was largely due to tech shares and we’re seeing that continue again today. US futures are keeping lower across the board with S&P 500 futures down 0.4% and Nasdaq futures down 0.5% currently.As for precious metals, there wasn’t much in it either with gold flat at $5,186 and silver just up a little over 1% to $89.69 on the day.All eyes are staying on geopolitical developments, US stock market sentiment, as well as month-end flows in looking to wrap up the week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold’s current support amid US-Iran tensions is a signal for cautious trading strategies. With the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report looming, traders should be wary of volatility spikes. Historically, NFP releases can lead to significant price swings, especially in gold and oil, which are both showing resilience right now. The uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events often drives safe-haven demand, but the potential for a downside correction remains if the NFP data surprises positively. Traders should keep an eye on key levels; for gold, a break below recent support could trigger selling pressure, while oil prices may also react sharply depending on the NFP outcome. Additionally, the CPI data from Bavaria and France could influence the euro and broader currency markets, but the immediate focus should be on how these economic indicators interact with the NFP results. Watch for the NFP release next week as it could set the tone for market sentiment and trading strategies across commodities and currencies alike. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on the upcoming NFP report; it could trigger volatility in gold and oil, impacting trading strategies significantly.

Prior +2.1%HICP +2.0% vs +2.1% y/y expectedPrior +2.1%Core CPI Y/Y +2.5% vs +2.5% priorWe have slight misses here but that was pretty much expected after the softer German states readings here. Having said that, the core measure matched the prior reading. The data won’t change anything for the ECB. The market reaction has been muted given no change to interest rates outlook. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The latest inflation data shows a slight miss, but here’s why it matters: With HICP at +2.1% and core CPI steady at +2.5%, traders should note that the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to shift its policy stance. This stability suggests that interest rates will remain unchanged in the near term, which could keep the euro under pressure against the dollar. For day traders, this means watching for potential volatility in EUR/USD as market participants digest these figures. If the euro weakens, it could create opportunities for short positions. On the flip side, the core CPI holding steady might indicate underlying inflationary pressures that could resurface, especially if energy prices rise. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming economic indicators, particularly from the German states, as they could provide further insights into regional economic health. Key levels to watch in EUR/USD are the recent lows; a break below those could signal a stronger bearish trend. 📮 Takeaway Watch for EUR/USD reaction around recent lows; a break could signal further downside as ECB policy remains unchanged.

TGIF.The USD is little changed to start the North American session as traders await the US January PPI report at 8:30 AM ET. Expectations are for a +0.3% MoM increase, while the YoY rate is forecast to ease to 2.6% from 3.0%. The dollar is trading mixed against the major currency pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — as markets look for the next catalyst.EURUSDThe EURUSD has moved back above its converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.1800, a level that now serves as the key barometer for both buyers and sellers today.If buyers can maintain control above those moving averages, the next upside focus shifts toward the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at 1.1830, an area that capped gains yesterday. Monday’s high at 1.1834 reinforces this resistance zone. A sustained break above both levels would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door toward 1.1860, followed by 1.1890.On the downside, a move back below the hourly moving averages would shift attention to a swing support area between 1.1760 and 1.1778. A break below that region would target the 100-day moving average near 1.1693 as the next major downside objective.For the week, the pair has traded within roughly a 70-pip range, highlighting a non-trending environment. Such compression typically precedes a larger directional move once a breakout occurs.USDJPYThe USDJPY moved lower during the Asian-Pacific session and briefly dipped below its 100-hour moving average (155.76), but downside momentum quickly faded. The pair rebounded and stalled against a swing resistance area between 156.20 and 156.28.Heading into North American trading, the 100-hour moving average acts as close support, while the swing area above serves as resistance. Traders will look for a decisive break on either side, with momentum likely following the direction of that breakout.GBPUSDThe GBPUSD has traded in a choppy range today. During the early European session, sellers leaned against the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.3508, triggering a rotation lower toward 1.3475.On the downside, the 200-day moving average at 1.3445 remains the key technical level. The pair has tested this moving average five times recently, producing only modest breaks (about 8 pips) without sustained momentum. A clearer bearish bias requires a firm break and hold below this level.On the topside, a move back above 1.3508 would shift momentum back toward buyers, targeting resistance near 1.3537, followed by swing resistance zones at 1.3582–1.3590. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The USD’s stability ahead of the PPI report suggests traders are on edge, and here’s why that matters: With the January PPI data set to drop at 8:30 AM ET, expectations of a +0.3% MoM increase and a YoY decline to 2.6% could significantly impact market sentiment. If the actual figures deviate from these forecasts, we could see volatility spike, particularly in USD pairs. A stronger-than-expected PPI could bolster the dollar, pushing it higher against major currencies, while a weaker reading might trigger a sell-off. Traders should keep an eye on key levels; for instance, if the dollar index breaks above recent resistance, it could signal a bullish trend. But don’t overlook the flip side—if inflation shows signs of easing more than anticipated, it could lead to speculation about the Fed’s next moves, potentially weakening the dollar. Watch for reactions in correlated markets, like commodities, which often respond sharply to inflation data. The immediate focus should be on the PPI release, as it could set the tone for the rest of the trading day and beyond. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on the PPI report at 8:30 AM ET; deviations from the forecast could trigger significant moves in the USD and related markets.

Prior YoY was +3.0% PPI M/M +0.5% vs 0.3% expectedPrior +0.5% (revised to 0.4%)Core PPICore PPI Y/Y +3.6% vs +3.0% expectedPrior +3.3% Core PPI M/M +0.8% vs +0.3% expectedPrior Core PPI MoM +0.7% (revised to 0.6%)PPI Ex Foor/Energy/Trade YoY 3.4% vs 3.5% last monthPPI Ex Food/Energy/Trader MoM 0.3% vs 0.3% last month (revised from 0.4% last month)For the second month in a row, the PPI came in higher than expectations. The data suggests the despite all the chatter about inflation moving lower, it is still sticky and is what is bothering people. The inflation from the pandemic is irrelevant. Cost/Push inflation continues to move higher, and that is not a good thing. US stocks are sharply lower with the Nasdaq down -245 points. The Dow is down -571 points. The S&P is down -63 points.Yields in the US are still lower on the day with the 10 year below 4.0% at 3.984%. 2 year yield is down -4.2 basis points at 3.405%.Gold moved up to test swing area resistance:Silver moved up to test the 50% of the move down from the all-time high to the low reached in February. WHAT THE US PPI MEASURES?The Producer Price Index (PPI) is an economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. In simpler terms, it tracks inflation from the perspective of the seller/business rather than the consumer like the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The latest PPI data shows inflation pressures are stronger than expected, and here’s why that matters: With the Core PPI rising 0.8% month-over-month against an expected 0.3%, traders should brace for potential volatility in both the forex and crypto markets. This uptick could prompt the Fed to reconsider its interest rate strategy, especially if inflation remains stubbornly high. The market’s reaction to these figures will likely ripple through related assets, particularly the USD, which could strengthen as traders anticipate tighter monetary policy. Watch for key resistance levels in major currency pairs, especially if the dollar gains momentum against the euro and yen. On the flip side, if the market overreacts to this data, it could create buying opportunities in risk assets like equities or crypto. Keep an eye on the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, as they often react inversely to dollar strength. The next few days will be crucial; monitor how these assets respond to any shifts in sentiment as traders digest the implications of this PPI report. 📮 Takeaway Watch for potential dollar strength and volatility in risk assets; key levels to monitor are resistance in major currency pairs and Bitcoin’s response to dollar movements.