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Figure Heloc 
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that the Canadian Dollar has been relatively resilient since the conflict began, supported by Oil-linked terms of trade. He expects the Bank of Canada to hold rates and deliver a cautious message, stressing uncertainty around energy-driven inflation.
💡 DMK Insight
The Canadian Dollar’s resilience at $0.28 against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions is noteworthy. MUFG’s Derek Halpenny points to oil-linked terms of trade as a key support factor, which is crucial for traders to consider. If the Bank of Canada maintains its rates and adopts a cautious tone, it could signal a wait-and-see approach that might keep the CAD stable in the near term. However, any shifts in energy prices or inflation expectations could lead to volatility. Traders should monitor oil prices closely, as a significant drop could weaken CAD’s standing. On the flip side, if the Bank of Canada surprises with a hawkish stance, we might see a bullish reaction in CAD, potentially pushing it above $0.30. Keep an eye on the upcoming economic data releases and the central bank’s communications for clues on future movements.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for CAD’s reaction to oil price fluctuations and Bank of Canada’s messaging; key level to monitor is $0.30 for potential bullish breakout.
