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Barclays flags strongest stock buy signal in a year as sentiment resetsFed set to hold as Deutsche Bank flags geopolitics clouding outlookChina approves Nvidia H200 AI chip sales as licences granted to multiple firmsChina firms ramp up FX hedging as yuan strength threatens export earningsPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8909 (vs. estimate at 6.8798)India is working with Iran to secure safe passage for key fuel shipments through Hormuz,Projectile strikes near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant, no damage reportedJapan exports beat forecasts but lose momentum from prior surgeAustralia leading index steady. Growth outlook softens to below trend on rate hikes & warJapan firms set for strong wage hikes as labour shortages persist, outlook uncertainJapan manufacturers sentiment hits four-year high, but outlook dims on Middle East risksIraq, KRG agree to resume Ceyhan oil exports as Hormuz disruption tightens supplyRBA hikes to 4.10%. Split decision. Inflation risks & demand pressures. Where to now?Recap: RBA lifts rate to 4.1%. Split decision. Inflation risks & capacity pressures buildPrivate survey inventory shows a huge headline crude oil build much larger than expectedUS weighs easing Venezuela oil sanctions to boost supply amid global disruptionsUS major indices close higher for the 2nd consecutive day. Gains led by small-cap stocks.investingLive Americas market news wrap: A divergence appears between oil and stocksAt a glance:Iran launches retaliatory strikes after Larijani killingOil slips despite tensions, no fresh escalation signalsIraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government agreed to resume Ceyhan oil exportsMixed US inventory data: crude build, gasoline drawJapan exports slow; US auto shipments and China demand weakenJapan–US to announce ¥11tn+ investment packageFX subdued ahead of Fed; BoJ decision due ThursdayBoth Fed and BoJ expected to hold policy steadyChina firms reportedly approved to buy Nvidia H200 chipsWar-driven inflation risks rising, but growth headwinds buildingIran launched retaliatory strikes on Israel and US-linked assets following the killing of security chief Ali Larijani in an airstrike, though oil prices edged lower as markets saw no clear sign of further escalation or de-escalation. Price action was also weighed by mixed US private inventory data, with a larger-than-expected crude build offset by a deeper-than-forecast draw in gasoline. Official inventory data will follow on Wednesday morning US time. Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government agreed to resume Ceyhan oil exports.In Japan, export growth slowed, reflecting weaker auto shipments to the US and softer demand from China amid Lunar New Year disruptions. Separately, Japan and the US are expected to unveil a joint statement outlining more than ¥11 trillion in additional investment commitments, marking a second tranche of economic cooperation.Major FX pairs traded in subdued ranges ahead of today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, with markets also looking ahead to the Bank of Japan policy announcement on Thursday (Japan time). Both central banks are widely expected to leave rates unchanged.In tech, multiple Chinese firms were reportedly granted approval to purchase NVIDIA H200 AI chips, suggesting some easing at the margin in cross-border semiconductor flows.Looking ahead, once the Fed decision passes, attention is likely to shift more fully to the economic implications of the Iran conflict. While the policy tone may lean hawkish with renewed emphasis on inflation risks, particularly via energy, there is a growing recognition that downside risks to employment and household income are also building.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
đź’ˇ DMK Insight
Barclays just issued its strongest stock buy signal in a year, and here’s why that matters: a reset in sentiment could lead to significant market movements. With the Fed likely to hold rates steady, traders should keep an eye on how this affects equities, especially in tech sectors buoyed by China’s approval of Nvidia’s AI chip sales. The ramp-up in FX hedging by Chinese firms indicates a proactive approach to counteract yuan strength, which could impact export earnings and, subsequently, global markets. This is a crucial moment for traders to assess their positions, particularly in sectors sensitive to geopolitical shifts and currency fluctuations. Watch for key levels in the USD/CNY pair as the PBOC sets the mid-point today; a strong yuan could pressure export-heavy stocks. On the flip side, while the bullish sentiment from Barclays is encouraging, geopolitical tensions remain a wildcard. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility spikes, especially if unexpected news emerges from the geopolitical landscape. Keeping an eye on the daily charts for major indices will be essential in the coming days.
đź“® Takeaway
Monitor the USD/CNY mid-point set by the PBOC today, as a strong yuan could impact export earnings and market sentiment significantly.
