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Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee spoke with Yahoo Finance today and had some notable comments:Encouraging and concerning parts in latest CPIWe are still seeing pretty high services inflationHopes we’ve seen the peak impact of tariffsThe job market has been steady, only modest coolingRates can still go down but need to see progress on inflationConsumers should hold up if the jobs market is stable and inflation easesI don’t know how restrictive Fed policy isHigh services inflation is worrisomeWe are not on a path back to 2% inflation, stuck around 3%December CPI came in slightly cooler than expected, with headline inflation rising 0.2% month-over-month versus the 0.3% consensus, while the year-over-year rate held at 2.5%. Core inflation matched expectations at 2.5% annually and 0.3% monthly. Real weekly earnings flipped positive at +0.5%, a notable improvement from the prior revised -0.5%. Supercore printed at 2.7% year-over-year. Markets reacted with a modest dovish repricing of Fed expectations, pressuring the dollar lower. In the bond market, the notable move this week has been in the long end, following a surprisingly strong auction and the turmoil in equities. Thirty-year yields have slid to 4.70% from 4.90% this week.The US economic calendar was busy this week but quiets considerably next week, in part due to the President’s Day holiday on Monday. On Tuesday we get the Empire FEd and NAHB housing market index. Wednesday we get durable goods and housing starts. Thursday we get initial jobless claims as usual and Friday is the PCE report.There is a smattering of Fedspeak throughout the week but it’s tough to imagine that any of it will make any real waves given the data dependence that most policymakers are preaching.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
đź’ˇ DMK Insight
Goolsbee’s comments on inflation and the job market signal mixed signals for traders right now. While he acknowledges persistent services inflation, which could keep the Fed cautious, the steady job market suggests that a drastic rate cut isn’t imminent. Traders should be wary of how these factors might influence the upcoming CPI reports and Fed meetings. If inflation remains stubborn, it could lead to volatility in both equities and bonds, especially if the market starts pricing in a more hawkish stance from the Fed. Keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury yield as it often reacts to these economic indicators. A breakout above recent highs could signal a shift in sentiment, impacting risk assets across the board. On the flip side, if the job market shows signs of cooling, it might provide the Fed with the leeway to lower rates sooner than expected. This could create a buying opportunity in sectors sensitive to interest rates, like tech and real estate. Watch for the next CPI release and any Fed commentary for clearer direction.
đź“® Takeaway
Monitor the upcoming CPI data closely; if inflation remains high, expect volatility in equities and bonds, especially around key Fed meetings.
