MUFG’s Michael Wan views the detailed US–India interim trade deal, including tariff cuts and exemptions, as positive for India’s external position. He sees scope for USD/INR to briefly break below 90 in coming months, but expects only a shallow INR recovery. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The US–India trade deal could shift the USD/INR dynamics significantly. With tariff cuts and exemptions on the table, India’s external position looks stronger, which might lead to a temporary dip in USD/INR below 90. However, don’t get too excited—Michael Wan suggests that any recovery in the INR will likely be shallow. This means traders should be cautious about positioning for a long-term bullish trend in the rupee. Instead, watch for volatility around the 90 mark, as a break below could trigger short-term buying interest but may not sustain. Keep an eye on related markets, especially commodities that India imports heavily, as they could influence the INR’s strength. If global commodity prices rise, it could counteract any benefits from the trade deal, leading to a more complex trading environment. The real story here is the balance between short-term gains and long-term fundamentals, so stay alert for any shifts in sentiment or economic data that could impact these forecasts. 📮 Takeaway Monitor USD/INR closely around the 90 level; a break below could present short-term trading opportunities, but be wary of a shallow recovery.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWSame as we saw for gold, yesterday we got a quick selloff in silver without any clear catalyst, although half of the losses were eventually pared back. The curious thing is that we saw the same price action across many other assets around the same time. It’s unclear what triggered those moves. Today, the focus is on the US CPI report as it’s going to be a big risk event for precious metals. The market is pricing 58 bps of easing for the Fed this year, so there’s a high risk of a hawkish repricing in case the data comes out strong. In such a scenario, we will likely see silver selling off again and potentially reaching new lows.On the other hand, a soft report shouldn’t change much in terms of near-term Fed policy, but it will keep the dovish bets in place which should act as support for silver.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that silver continues to consolidate between the trendline and the major swing high around the 92.00 handle. What level is going to be tested first will likely be decided by today’s US CPI report. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see there’s not much we can see on this timeframe either, but the fact that we are making lower highs could be a dangerous signal for the bulls as a test of the trendline might have higher probabilities. SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. If the price pulls back to the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk above it to position for drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into the major swing level around the 92.00 handle. Watch out for the US CPI report today as it could trigger big moves in the market. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we conclude the week with the US CPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Silver’s recent selloff, mirroring gold’s, raises eyebrows—what’s driving this synchronized dip? Traders should note that the lack of a clear catalyst suggests underlying market sentiment might be shifting. This could indicate a broader risk-off attitude among investors, potentially driven by macroeconomic concerns or geopolitical tensions. The fact that other assets experienced similar movements hints at a systemic issue rather than isolated events. Watch for correlations with the U.S. dollar and interest rate expectations, as these often dictate precious metal movements. If silver can hold above its recent lows, it might signal a buying opportunity, but a break below could lead to further declines. Here’s the thing: while mainstream narratives focus on immediate price action, the real story could be about liquidity and market psychology. If institutions are pulling back, retail traders might want to reassess their positions. Keep an eye on the $24 level for silver; a decisive break could lead to increased volatility. Stay alert for any news that might clarify this selloff’s cause, as it could provide actionable insights for your trading strategy. 📮 Takeaway Monitor silver’s price around $24; a break below could signal increased volatility and further declines.

If anything it done, it would be clarification on incidental objectsSpoke to the USTR this morning, we’ll see if there’s a narrowingHe also weighs in on the Fed chair drama involving Senator Tillis, who might want to block the nomination of Kevin Warsh i.e. Trump’s pick to replace Powell.We’ll see where the probe goesTillis wants to put a hold on any voteImportant to proceed with Senate hearingsI think we have an agreement on the hearingsMeanwhile, he’s also touching on trade with China a little:We do not want to decouple from China, we want to de-riskWe want to engage in fair tradeOn the metals tariffs, it is related to the earlier headline here: Trump reportedly weighs up plans to scale back on steel and aluminium tariffsSo, that will be something to watch out for as it is more pertinent to the domestic political situation whereby Trump wants to bolster his approval ratings ahead of the midterms later in the year.Besides that, the other comments are rather pedestrian. They aren’t really offering anything much as they are things we already know from recent developments.But I guess with regards to China trade relations, the fact that he is trying to be cordial says a lot about how the US administration is looking to keep the peace before Trump’s visit to China in April. That fits with the report yesterday here, which outlines the US shelving key tech curbs against China for now. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source

The process of disinflation is intact and not completeWe need to maintain monetary policy restrictivenessCore inflation is falling again after having stalledI hope inflation expectations will fall with slowing inflationUnderlying inflation should be the focus of policyDisinflation is not as rapid or convincing as hopedUnderlying inflation looks more like 2.5%, not 2%Monetary policy stance is still restrictiveWe are not seeing a collapse in activity, forward looking indicators do not suggest this is likelyProductivity improvements are cyclical and mechanicalTrend productivity not going back to where it wasDisinflation in underlying services is flatteningWe should be cautious on the last mileRates are currently a bit too lowHolding rates at this level should be enough to control inflationBank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill has signalled that while the battle against rising prices is moving in the right direction, there’s still more to do to get back to the 2% target. He is cautiously optimistic but wary of declaring an early victory.Pill notes that the process of disinflation remains intact, though he admits it has been neither as rapid nor as convincing as policymakers had initially hoped. While the headline figures may fluctuate, the “underlying” figures is what the Bank is focused on. Pill suggests that underlying inflation is currently tracking closer to 2.5% rather than the BoE’s 2% target. A particular point of concern is the “flattening” of disinflation within the services sector, which remains stubborn despite broader price cools. On a positive note, core inflation has begun to fall again after a period of stagnation, providing some evidence that the current policy is working.Despite some calls for aggressive rate cuts, Pill’s stance remains firmly rooted in restrictiveness. He argues that the current monetary policy stance must remain tight to ensure expectations continue to trend downward alongside slowing inflation.Addressing the broader health of the UK economy, Pill dismissed fears of an imminent “collapse in activity.” Forward-looking indicators suggest stability rather than a sharp downturn. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Core inflation’s recent stall signals potential volatility ahead for traders. The ongoing disinflation process is crucial, but the fact that underlying inflation is hovering around 2.5% suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain its restrictive monetary policy longer than anticipated. This could impact interest rates and, consequently, forex pairs sensitive to U.S. monetary policy. If inflation expectations don’t fall as hoped, we could see increased market volatility, particularly in assets like the USD or commodities that react to inflation data. Traders should keep an eye on upcoming inflation reports and Fed communications for clues on future policy adjustments. Here’s the flip side: if inflation expectations do start to decline, we might see a rally in risk assets as the market prices in a potential pivot from the Fed. Watch for key technical levels in the USD index and related forex pairs, as a break below support could signal a shift in sentiment. Immediate focus should be on the next inflation report and any Fed commentary, as these will be pivotal in shaping market direction. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the upcoming inflation report closely; a shift below 2.5% could trigger significant market moves, especially in USD pairs.