Headlines:Iran chief negotiator continues to pinpoint violations of existing ceasefire agreementIran navy claims that 15 vessels passed through Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hoursBack from the weekend and still no closer to a US-Iran dealUS president Trump says to “sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end”Gold erases gains as hopes for an imminent US-Iran deal fade. What’s next?Long-term consumer inflation expectations remained stable in April according to ECB surveyEuro area manufacturing activity loses steam as stockpiling surge fades in MayUK May final manufacturing PMI 53.9 vs 53.7 prelimGerman retail sales struggle in April as Middle East conflict continues to weighMarkets:WTI crude up 3.6% to $90.55European indices mostly little changedS&P 500 futures up 0.3%USD and GBP lead, NZD lags on the dayUS 10-year yields up 0.2 bps to 4.46%Gold down 0.6% to $4,506Bitcoin down 1.3% to $72,614It’s a brand new week but it feels like we are stuck in the same old loop once again.The US and Iran are continuing to sort out terms for a deal to be struck, with both sides unable to find common ground on key issues still.Iran continues to point the finger at the US in saying that there remains a violation with the attacks in Lebanon and the US naval blockade still not being lifted. Officials also continue to lambast the US on frequent changes to the framework agreement terms in the past week.Meanwhile, the US continues to want Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and offer some baseline promises on nuclear arrangements. That said, Trump’s latest communique even called to “sit back and relax”. That suggests there is no rush to force an agreement for now.As we get into the new week, oil prices are pushing up again with WTI crude moving back above $90 to start the week. Prices are up 3.6% to $90.55, with optimism on a deal being pushed back a bit.However, equities continue to hold out hope for the most part. Major indices in Europe are little changed but US futures are continuing to nudge higher to start the new week/month. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% with Dow futures up 0.5% while Nasdaq futures are also up 0.3% on the day.In the major currencies space, the dollar is lightly changed and keeping just a little higher so far today. EUR/USD is down 0.1% to 1.1645 with USD/JPY continuing to hover near intervention strike range at 159.50. Meanwhile, USD/CAD is up 0.2% to 1.3830 and AUD/USD down 0.1% to 0.7175 currently.In other markets, bond yields are lightly changed with 10-year Treasury yields sitting at 4.46%. Meanwhile, gold is down 0.6% to $4,506 as the push and pull continues with traders being taken for a ride in this whole deal or no deal saga. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are escalating, and here’s why that matters for traders: geopolitical risks can heavily influence oil prices and currency pairs linked to energy exports. With Iran’s navy reporting 15 vessels passing through the Strait, the potential for conflict is rising. This could lead to supply disruptions, which historically have sent crude oil prices soaring. Traders should keep an eye on WTI and Brent crude futures, especially if they break above key resistance levels. Additionally, the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations adds uncertainty, which could lead to volatility in the forex market, particularly for currencies of oil-dependent economies. Watch for any sudden price movements in oil and related currencies, as these could signal broader market reactions. On the flip side, if tensions ease unexpectedly, we might see a sharp correction in oil prices, creating a potential buying opportunity for those looking to capitalize on short-term fluctuations. Keep an eye on the daily charts for oil and related assets for any breakout patterns or reversal signals. 📮 Takeaway Monitor crude oil prices closely; a breakout above recent highs could signal increased volatility, while easing tensions may offer a buying opportunity.

Iran is claiming a figure of 15 vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, with those ships said to have obtained permission from Tehran to cross the waterway. Of the 15 vessels, the Iran navy is saying that it includes 4 oil tankers.Now, the issue here is that these may all still be “shadow fleets”. So, it is tough to ascertain which oil tankers these are and where their destinations will be. The same can be said for all the other vessels. As mentioned before, Iran may claim one thing but the reality i.e. actual shipping data tends to differ from that. We have seen that before in recent weeks.So, why exactly is Iran doing this?In part, it is perhaps to play to the optics in managing US expectations as we look towards a deal between the two sides. From before:In any case, an average of 15-30 vessels in total per day is still an absolutely shambolic number when compared to the pre-war days. And even when you pair that to the roughly 3 ships per day that the US is reportedly sneaking through the strait, it’s not that much better.And mind you, these are vessels that are bold enough to turn off their transponders to avoid detection. As a general rule of thumb, don’t expect this to apply to the majority of commercial vessels.Even if the US and Iran are able to agree to a managed reopening of the strait, whether or not maritime insurance can be taken up again is still the number one obstacle. If ships are still not going to be insured when passing through the strait, it will be a risky game for many commercial vessels in passing through.That especially as how things can easily fall apart again between the US and Iran, considering the puzzle pieces in play. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Iran’s claim of 15 vessels, including 4 oil tankers, in the Strait of Hormuz is a significant development for oil traders. This situation highlights the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region, which can lead to volatility in oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, and any disruptions here can ripple through the entire energy market. Traders should keep an eye on Brent crude prices, which often react sharply to news from this area. If tensions escalate or if Iran takes further actions, we could see a spike in oil prices, potentially breaking key resistance levels. Conversely, if the situation stabilizes, we might see a pullback. Watch for any official statements from Iran or the U.S. that could impact market sentiment, especially in the coming days as these vessels continue their transit. 📮 Takeaway Monitor Brent crude prices closely; any escalation in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger significant price movements.

China’s RatingDog/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 in May from 52.2 in April, staying above 50 for a sixth straight month, as input price inflation eased for the first time in six months.Over the weekend we had the official PMIs:China’s official manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.0 in May from 50.3, matching forecasts, as export orders contracted sharply; the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, beating the 49.5 consensus.Summary: Source: RatingDog/S&P GlobalThe RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 in May from 52.2 in April, remaining above the 50.0 threshold for a sixth consecutive month and above the long-run survey average of 50.8New orders growth eased from April but remained among the highest recorded over the past five years; new export orders saw a slight declineOutput rose further, the third-strongest expansion since the second half of 2024, easing from April’s 22-month highInput price inflation eased for the first time in six months and output price inflation for the first time in seven months, though input costs remained above the long-run survey averageSupplier delivery times lengthened for a third successive month; input stocks rose for a sixth consecutive month as manufacturers continued to build safety inventoriesEmployment contracted marginally overall, though consumer goods firms continued to hireBusiness confidence for the 12-month output outlook remained optimistic, moderating slightly from April but in line with the year-to-date averageChina’s manufacturing sector sustained solid expansion in May, with the RatingDog/S&P Global General Manufacturing PMI holding comfortably above the no-change mark for a sixth consecutive month, while a first easing of inflationary pressures in roughly half a year offered cautious relief to firms that have faced sustained cost pressure since the Middle East conflict began.RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, May 2026: 51.8 prior: 52.2New orders remained a bright spot, with demand growth easing only modestly from April and staying among the highest levels recorded over the past five years. Domestic demand was the primary driver, as new export orders slipped slightly in May, a detail that warrants attention given the broader softening in global trade conditions. Output rose for another month, the third-strongest pace of expansion since the second half of 2024, even as it stepped back from April’s 22-month high.The survey’s most significant finding was a simultaneous easing in both input and output price inflation, the first such deceleration in six and seven months respectively. Manufacturers linked the prior cost surge to higher raw material and energy prices, supply chain disruption and the broader impact of the Middle East conflict. While the slowdown in inflation is a welcome development, input prices continued to rise faster than their long-run average, indicating that cost pressures have not been eliminated, only reduced at the margin.Supply chains remained under strain. Supplier delivery times lengthened for a third successive month, prompting manufacturers to continue building input inventories, which rose for a sixth consecutive month. The stock-building impulse reflects precautionary behaviour rather than demand confidence, with firms continuing to hedge against future shortages and price increases.Employment contracted marginally overall, though consumer goods producers bucked the trend with continued hiring. Backlogs of work grew for a fourth month running, partly reflecting order intake strength and partly input shortages constraining throughput.Business confidence for the year ahead remained positive, with firms citing anticipated demand growth, new customer development, product launches and capacity improvements, though optimism edged down slightly from April amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. —The first easing in input and output price inflation in six and seven months respectively is the most market-relevant signal in the release, offering tentative evidence that the worst of the war-driven cost surge through Chinese supply chains may be peaking. For commodity markets the detail that input prices, while slower, remain above their long-run average means any relief is partial. The stock-building dynamic, with input inventories rising for a sixth consecutive month, suggests manufacturers are still hedging against further disruption rather than signalling genuine demand confidence. Export orders slipping marginally in May, even as the domestic new orders picture stayed near five-year highs, is worth watching as a potential leading indicator of external demand softening feeding into China’s industrial output later in the quarter. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight China’s manufacturing PMI dip to 51.8 signals potential economic cooling, and here’s why that matters: For traders, this PMI reading, while still above the neutral 50 mark, indicates a slowdown in growth momentum. The easing of input price inflation could suggest that manufacturers are facing less pressure, but it also raises concerns about demand. This could impact commodities and currencies tied to China’s economic health, particularly the Australian dollar and oil prices. If the trend continues, we might see a shift in market sentiment, especially among those trading in cyclical stocks or commodities. Watch for how this affects related assets—if the PMI continues to trend downwards, it could lead to broader market corrections. On the flip side, the sustained PMI above 50 means growth is still present, albeit at a slower pace. Traders should monitor the next set of economic indicators closely, especially any shifts in consumer sentiment or export data, as these could provide clearer signals about the trajectory of China’s economy. Key levels to watch include the 50.0 mark for the official PMI and any significant reactions in the AUD/USD pair as traders digest this data. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on the AUD/USD and commodity prices as China’s PMI trends; a sustained drop could signal broader market shifts.

Palantir stock trade idea: breakout confirmed, but the buy zone matters more than the headline moveKey takeaways if you may be seeing the recent Palantir stock breakout and considering a buyPLTR has broken above its recent descending resistance line, improving the technical tone. The bigger question is not whether the breakout happened, but where the risk-reward still makes sense for buyers. A weighted entry plan using 1x, 2x, and 3x sizing can lower the average entry if deeper pullback orders are filled. If all three planned entries fill, the weighted average entry is about $141.30. The proposed stop at $130.78 gives a weighted-plan risk of about -7.45%, with average target potential of about +21.71% if exits are split equally across three profit targets. What is the current PLTR technical setup?Palantir Technologies stock has made an important technical move by breaking above the descending trendline that had capped several prior recovery attempts. That matters because trendline resistance often acts as a visual pressure point for swing traders. When price finally moves above it, some short sellers may reduce exposure, while momentum traders may begin watching for continuation.But a breakout alone is not the same as a good trade.This is where discipline becomes important. A stock can break out and still be unattractive to buy if the entry is too far above logical support, if the stop becomes too wide, or if the reward-to-risk profile deteriorates. In other words, PLTR breaking out answers one question, but where to buy PLTR is a completely different question.For traders considering a swing long, the plan below uses staged buying rather than chasing the first breakout candle.PLTR weighted entry planThis trade idea assumes three possible buy levels, with heavier buying lower in the range. The goal is to avoid putting the full position on at the highest planned entry and instead improve the average cost if PLTR pulls back.Total size if all orders fill: 6xThe weighted average entry is calculated as:(149.54×1)+(143.93×2)+(137.36×3)6=141.30frac{(149.54 times 1) + (143.93 times 2) + (137.36 times 3)}{6} = 141.30Weighted average entry if all three orders fill: $141.30Why does the weighted entry improve the trade idea?The weighted plan improves the setup because it lowers the average entry from the equal-size average of about $143.61 to about $141.30, assuming all three orders are filled.That matters for two reasons.First, it reduces the distance to the stop. With a stop at $130.78, the risk from the weighted average entry is $10.52, or about -7.45%.Second, it improves the reward-to-risk profile. The same profit targets become more attractive because the average cost basis is lower.This is not always the right approach. Weighted buying can increase exposure into weakness, so it should only be used when the trader is comfortable owning the full planned size and when the stop is respected if the setup fails.PLTR profit targets and reward-to-risk profileAverage R:R if exiting one-third at each target: 2.91RAverage % gain if exiting one-third at each target: +21.71%That is the main appeal of the structure. The plan does not require the trader to predict the exact low. Instead, it defines a ladder of entries, a known invalidation level, and staged profit-taking zones.What would invalidate the PLTR swing long setup?The key invalidation level in this plan is the stop at $130.78.If PLTR falls to that level after filling the weighted position, the bullish swing thesis is no longer behaving as expected. At that point, the plan is not about hoping the stock comes back. It is about respecting the original risk framework.A move toward $130.78 would suggest that the breakout either failed, the pullback became deeper than intended, or broader market conditions overwhelmed the setup.A more conservative trader may also want to monitor whether PLTR can hold above the former descending trendline after the breakout. If price falls back below that area and fails to reclaim it, the breakout may start looking more like a failed breakout than a clean continuation.How traders can think about the PLTR breakoutThe better way to view this setup is not: “PLTR broke out, therefore buy.”A more professional framing is:Bullish scenario: PLTR holds above the broken trendline area, absorbs pullbacks, and rotates toward $161.11, then $173.39, and possibly $181.41. Neutral scenario: PLTR broke out but now needs time to digest the move, meaning the stock may chop around before deciding whether buyers still have control. Bearish / invalidation scenario: PLTR loses the breakout structure and trades down toward $130.78, where the swing-long thesis should be considered invalid under this plan. This is the practical difference between chart watching and trade planning. A chart can show an interesting breakout, but a trade plan needs entries, size, stop, targets, and a clear answer to the question: “What proves me wrong?”PLTR swing trade summaryPLTR’s breakout above the descending resistance line improves the technical backdrop, but the quality of the trade depends heavily on entry discipline. The weighted plan, using 1x at $149.54, 2x at $143.93, and 3x at $137.36, creates a better average entry of about $141.30 if fully filled.With a stop at $130.78, the risk is about -7.45% from the weighted average entry. The three target structure at $161.11, $173.39, and $181.41 creates an average reward-to-risk profile of about 2.91R if the position is exited equally across the targets.This is a trade idea only, not financial advice. Anyone considering PLTR should size the position carefully, account for gap risk, and trade only according to their own risk tolerance. Visit investingLive.com stocks section for other gems.Quick FAQ for Palantir stock traders and investorsIs PLTR a buy after the breakout? PLTR has improved technically after the breakout, but the better question is whether the entry offers acceptable reward-to-risk.What is the weighted average entry in this PLTR plan? If all three planned orders fill, the weighted average entry is approximately $141.30.What is the stop-loss level in this PLTR swing trade idea? The stop-loss level used in this plan is $130.78.What are the PLTR profit targets in this plan? The profit targets are $161.11, $173.39, and $181.41.Why use weighted entries instead

US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Lebanon’s president and Israel’s PM Netanyahu in the past 48 hours to advance a ceasefire, but Washington says Hezbollah blocked progress on Tehran’s orders. Summary: Source: AxiosRubio spoke with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu within the past 48 hours to advance a new ceasefire initiative, per a US officialThe proposal calls for Hezbollah to halt all attacks on Israel as a first step, with Israel refraining from escalation in Beirut in return, to create space for gradual de-escalationPresident Aoun attempted to advance the proposal but parliament speaker Nabih Berri’s response was described as evasive and disappointing, with Berri placing the burden on Israel to stop firing first despite Hezbollah initiating the current round of fighting, per the US officialThe US official said Hezbollah is following Tehran’s lead and has no interest in Lebanese civilian welfare, and that Iran wants to prolong the Lebanon conflict to claim credit for resolving itWashington said it does not expect Israel to absorb ongoing attacks and that the fastest path to protecting civilians on all sides is an immediate Hezbollah ceasefireThe United States has proposed a new ceasefire framework for Lebanon, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio holding calls with both Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu within the past 48 hours to try to advance the initiative, but Washington says the effort has been blocked by Hezbollah acting on instructions from Tehran.The US proposal is structured as a sequenced first step: Hezbollah ceases all attacks on Israel, and in return Israel refrains from further escalation in Beirut. A US official described this as intended to create space for gradual de-escalation and an eventual cessation of hostilities across the Lebanon front.President Aoun sought to advance the proposal, but the response from parliament speaker Nabih Berri, who serves as Hezbollah’s principal political interlocutor, was described by the US official as evasive and disappointing. Berri claimed to be able to guarantee Hezbollah’s commitment to a ceasefire but insisted Israel must stop firing first, a position Washington rejected given that Hezbollah initiated the current round of fighting.The US official was direct in attributing the impasse to Iranian direction, saying Hezbollah is following Tehran’s lead and has no genuine interest in the welfare of the Lebanese people. The official added that Iran is deliberately prolonging the Lebanon conflict in order to position itself to claim credit for eventually resolving it, a framing that maps closely onto the picture of IRGC strategic control laid out in President Pezeshkian’s resignation letter earlier in the session.Washington’s closing position was unambiguous: Israel will not be expected to absorb ongoing civilian attacks from a designated terrorist organisation, and the fastest route to protecting civilians on both sides of the border is an immediate and unconditional halt to Hezbollah fire.–The Lebanon thread is a secondary but not trivial risk premium for energy markets, with any escalation in Beirut raising the prospect of a broader regional flare-up at a moment when the Iran-US nuclear framework is already fragile following Pezeshkian’s resignation. The US framing of Hezbollah as acting on Tehran’s instructions and Iran as seeking to prolong the conflict to claim diplomatic credit reinforces the view that the IRGC, not civilian Iranian leadership, is coordinating the region’s active fronts. That reading aligns directly with Pezeshkian’s resignation letter and compounds the uncertainty around whether any counterparty exists in Tehran capable of delivering a comprehensive settlement. For oil, Lebanon alone is not a price mover, but as a signal of Iranian intent and IRGC reach it adds to the risk-off case. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The U.S. is pushing for a ceasefire in the Israel-Lebanon conflict, but Hezbollah’s resistance complicates matters. For traders, this geopolitical tension can create volatility in related markets, particularly oil and defense stocks. If the situation escalates, we could see a spike in crude oil prices, which often reacts to Middle Eastern conflicts. Keep an eye on oil futures; any significant movement could indicate broader market shifts. Additionally, defense stocks may see increased activity as tensions rise, so monitoring companies in that sector could yield trading opportunities. The real story is how this geopolitical friction might affect risk sentiment in the markets—if investors start to flee to safety, we could see a flight into gold or U.S. Treasuries. Watch for any updates from Washington, as further diplomatic efforts or military escalations could shift market dynamics quickly. 📮 Takeaway Monitor oil prices and defense stocks closely; geopolitical tensions could lead to significant volatility in these markets.

China’s State Council has issued sweeping new rules broadening regulatory oversight of outbound investment, covering overseas deals involving Chinese technology, data and national security considerations. Taking effect July 1, the measures require authorisation for exports of restricted goods, technologies and related data, and ban indirect transfers through technical staff deployments or training arrangements. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight China’s new outbound investment regulations are a game changer for tech traders and investors. Starting July 1, these rules will require authorization for exports of restricted goods and technologies, which could significantly impact companies involved in tech and data sectors. Traders should be wary of how this might affect Chinese tech stocks and their global partners. The ripple effects could extend to related markets, especially in sectors reliant on Chinese technology. If you’re holding positions in companies like Alibaba or Tencent, keep an eye on their compliance strategies and potential market reactions. The broader implications could lead to increased volatility, particularly in the tech sector, as firms scramble to adapt to these new regulations. Here’s the thing: while some might see this as a tightening grip on tech, it could also present opportunities for companies that can navigate these waters effectively. Watch for how major players respond in the coming weeks, especially around earnings reports, as they may provide insights into the impact of these regulations on their operations and profitability. 📮 Takeaway Monitor how Chinese tech stocks react to the new regulations starting July 1, especially Alibaba and Tencent, for potential trading opportunities.