MUFG’s Derek Halpenny argues the US Dollar is under renewed selling pressure as President Trump’s comments on resuming talks and a war being “close to over” support risk assets and lift US equities above pre-conflict levels. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The US Dollar’s renewed selling pressure signals a shift in market sentiment, and here’s why that’s crucial for traders right now: Derek Halpenny’s insights highlight a growing appetite for risk assets, fueled by President Trump’s optimistic remarks about conflict resolution. When equities rise, the dollar often takes a hit as investors pivot towards higher-yielding assets. This dynamic could lead to increased volatility in forex pairs, particularly those involving the dollar. Traders should keep an eye on correlated markets, like commodities, which often react to shifts in dollar strength. If the dollar continues to weaken, we might see commodities like gold and oil gain traction, potentially breaking through key resistance levels. But here’s the flip side: if geopolitical tensions escalate unexpectedly, the dollar could rebound sharply as a safe haven. So, while the current sentiment leans towards risk, it’s essential to stay alert for any sudden shifts. Watch the 1.05 level on the EUR/USD; a break above could signal further dollar weakness. Keep an eye on equity market trends and news from the White House, as these will likely dictate the dollar’s trajectory in the coming days. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the 1.05 level on EUR/USD; a break above could indicate further dollar weakness amid rising risk appetite.

Gold (XAU/USD) shows moderate losses on Wednesday, trimming gains following a two-day rally. The precious metal failed to find acceptance above the $4,850 resistance area on Wednesday and pulled back to session lows below $4,800, as the US Dollar Index bounced up amid mixed messages on Iran. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold’s recent pullback from the $4,850 resistance is a critical moment for traders. After a two-day rally, the inability to maintain levels above $4,850 suggests that bullish momentum is waning, especially with the US Dollar Index gaining strength. This dynamic is crucial as a stronger dollar typically pressures gold prices, making it harder for the metal to sustain upward trends. Traders should watch for a potential test of support levels around $4,800; if this level fails, it could open the door for further declines. Conversely, if gold can reclaim the $4,850 mark, it may signal renewed bullish interest. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments, particularly regarding Iran, as these can create volatility in both gold and the dollar. The interplay between these factors is essential for short-term trading strategies, especially for those looking to capitalize on breakouts or reversals. In the broader context, if gold continues to struggle against the dollar, it could also impact related assets like silver and platinum, which often follow gold’s lead. So, monitoring the dollar’s strength and geopolitical news will be key in the coming days. 📮 Takeaway Watch for gold’s reaction around the $4,800 support level; a break could lead to further declines, while reclaiming $4,850 may signal a bullish reversal.

United States (US) President Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox Business Network that the war with Iran is very close to an end. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Trump’s comments on the Iran conflict could shift market sentiment significantly. If traders believe that tensions are easing, we might see a drop in oil prices, which have been sensitive to geopolitical risks. This could impact not just crude oil but also related assets like energy stocks and ETFs. Look at the correlation between oil prices and the broader market; a decrease in oil could lead to a bullish sentiment in equities, especially in sectors that rely on lower energy costs. But here’s the flip side: if the market perceives these comments as overly optimistic or if tensions flare up again, we could see volatility spike. Keep an eye on the $70 mark for WTI crude; a break below that could signal a shift in sentiment. In the immediate term, watch for reactions from institutional traders who might adjust their positions based on perceived risks. The next few days will be crucial as traders digest this news and its implications for the energy sector and overall market stability. 📮 Takeaway Monitor WTI crude oil around the $70 level; a drop could signal bullish trends in equities, while any resurgence in tensions could lead to increased volatility.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann keep a mildly positive short-term view on AUD/USD after it climbed to 0.7147. The pair is expected to trade between 0.7100 and 0.7155 intraday, with a possible test of 0.7155 if momentum improves. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight AUD/USD is showing some bullish momentum, and here’s why that matters right now: With the pair recently climbing to 0.7147, traders should pay attention to the expected intraday range of 0.7100 to 0.7155. If momentum continues to build, a test of 0.7155 could open the door for further gains. This is particularly relevant as the broader market sentiment around the Australian dollar remains cautiously optimistic, driven by commodity price stability and potential shifts in interest rate expectations. Look for key economic indicators from Australia and the U.S. that could influence this pair, especially employment data or inflation reports. But don’t overlook the risks—if the pair fails to hold above 0.7100, it could signal a bearish reversal, which would be a red flag for long positions. Keep an eye on the 0.7100 support level; a break below could trigger a wave of selling. For now, monitor momentum indicators like the RSI for signs of overbought conditions as we approach 0.7155, and be ready to adjust your strategy accordingly. 📮 Takeaway Watch for AUD/USD to test 0.7155; a failure to hold above 0.7100 could signal a bearish reversal.

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee notes that the US Dollar (USD) has given back most of its Iran‑war related strength, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) down this month and nearing pre‑conflict levels. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The USD’s recent decline signals a potential shift in market sentiment as geopolitical tensions ease. With the US Dollar Index (DXY) approaching pre-conflict levels, traders should be wary of how this could impact dollar-denominated assets. A weaker dollar often boosts commodities and emerging market currencies, so keep an eye on correlated assets like gold and oil. If the DXY breaks below recent support levels, it could trigger further selling pressure, leading to a cascading effect on related markets. Conversely, if the dollar stabilizes, it might indicate a return to risk-off sentiment, which could favor safe-haven assets. Watch for key technical levels in the DXY over the coming days; a bounce could signal a reversal, while a continued decline may open the door for bullish plays in commodities. Here’s the thing: while the mainstream narrative focuses on geopolitical risks, the underlying economic indicators—like inflation and interest rates—are equally crucial. Traders should monitor these alongside the DXY to gauge the broader market direction. 📮 Takeaway Watch the DXY closely; a break below key support could lead to bullish moves in commodities and emerging markets.

Headlines:Markets keep the calm awaiting a potential US-Iran dealGold remains supported amid US-Iran deal optimism as real yields extend the dropUS president Trump: I think the war with Iran can be over very soonTrump says he thinks extending the ceasefire will not be necessaryMediators move closer to extending US-Iran ceasefire – AP NewsUS sends thousands more troops to Middle East as Trump seeks to squeeze Iran – WaPoIRGC warns to stop all imports and exports in the Gulf of Oman if US continues blockadeIran reportedly to use alternative ports to bypass US blockade of Strait of HormuzJapan poised to release around 36 million barrels from its oil reservesUS president Trump: If Powell doesn’t leave, I have to fire himFrance March final CPI +1.7% vs +1.7% y/y prelimEurozone February industrial production +0.4% vs +0.3% m/m expectedMarkets:Oil prices bounce back from early lows, WTI crude up 1.1% to $92.25US dollar little changed, hold more mixed on the dayEuropean stocks more cautious, S&P 500 futures flat amid a more tepid moodUS 10-year yields up 1 bps to 4.265%Gold down 0.7% to $4,805, Silver down 1.0% to $78.70Bitcoin down 0.1% to $74,054After the risk rally yesterday, markets are keeping calmer with a bit of a more tepid mood in trading so far today.US president Trump continues to reaffirm that the war will be coming to an end “very soon”, with traders and investors eyeing a positive outcome from the next round of talks on Thursday.However, there are some mixed signals with US reportedly sending over more troops to the Middle East while Iran’s military issued threats of disrupting shipping in the Gulf of Oman and Red Sea so long as the US blockade continues.That is all keeping markets on edge as we look to US trading later, with oil prices bouncing back from the lows since Asia trading. With open interest shifting more towards the June contract, the front-month May contract for WTI crude may not be the best indicative price for the commodity but is still the one in play right now.That fell to near $87 in Asia trading earlier but has bounced back strongly to around $92.50 currently. In similar vein though, the June contract also fell to just below $85 before jumping back up to sit a little under the $90 mark at the moment.As for the broader risk mood, things are keeping fairly tepid with equities not doing a whole lot. US futures are keeping near unchanged levels with S&P 500 futures flat on the day. Meanwhile, major indices in Europe are looking fairly cautious today with the DAX also flat and CAC 40 down 0.6% though.As a reminder, the S&P 500 is just 0.5% away from a fresh record high. So, that gives a better idea about where we stand in having priced in the optimism towards the end of the conflict in the past week.In the major currencies space, the dollar is sitting little changed with there being not much to work with in European morning trade. EUR/USD is down 0.1% to 1.1777 while USD/JPY is up 0.1% to 158.95 and AUD/USD up just 0.2% to 0.7140.Precious metals are taking a light knock though with gold down 0.7% to $4,805 while silver is down 1.0% to $78.70 on the day.It’s still all on US-Iran developments at the moment. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold’s stability amid US-Iran deal talks is a signal for traders: real yields are falling, and that typically boosts gold’s appeal. With President Trump’s comments suggesting a potential end to hostilities, traders should keep an eye on how this optimism affects market sentiment. If the ceasefire extends, we could see a further drop in real yields, which historically supports gold prices. Watch for key technical levels around recent highs; a breakout could signal a stronger bullish trend. On the flip side, if negotiations falter, expect volatility in gold and related assets like silver and even oil, which could react sharply to geopolitical tensions. For now, focus on the upcoming economic indicators that could influence real yields, particularly any shifts in Fed policy or inflation data. The next few days could be pivotal, so stay alert for any news that could sway market sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Watch for gold’s reaction around key resistance levels; a breakout could signal a bullish trend if US-Iran talks progress.

I hope that Warsh gets confirmed next weekIf Powell doesn’t leave, I have to fire himWe have to find out what happened on probe of Powell, need to show the incompetenceThinks that interest rates will go lower when Warsh gets in as Fed chairIt’s no surprise there but does he really believe that even with Warsh in charge the Fed is able to cut interest rates any time soon? It’s ludicrous thinking considering how energy prices are spiking and the potential spillover impact to other core prices. Even if the US is not directly impacted by the war, higher input cost inflation elsewhere will eventually spread over across the globe.The Fed is already on edge and adopting a more wait-and-see approach currently. It would be extremely careless to side with political motivations and to act counterintuitively against inflation risks. Even if there might not be rate hikes, I would argue that any rate cuts before the summer is not on the cards right now. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The potential confirmation of Warsh as Fed chair could shift market sentiment, especially for ETH at $2,327.13. Traders should keep an eye on interest rate expectations, as Warsh’s stance suggests a dovish approach that could lead to lower rates. This environment typically favors risk assets like Ethereum, potentially driving prices higher. If Powell remains, the uncertainty could lead to increased volatility, impacting trading strategies. Watch for key resistance around $2,400; a break above could signal bullish momentum. Conversely, if the market senses instability, ETH could test support levels around $2,200. The flip side? If interest rates stay higher for longer, it could dampen enthusiasm for crypto. So, monitor Fed communications closely and be ready for rapid shifts in sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Watch for ETH to break above $2,400 for bullish momentum, but be cautious of volatility if Powell stays in power.

Full report hereAP News is reporting that mediators are working to extend the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran before it expires next week on April 22. Despite a US naval blockade and renewed threats from Tehran, regional officials report that both nations have reached an agreement in principle to continue diplomatic efforts. The primary obstacles to a lasting peace involve disputes over Iran’s nuclear program, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and compensation for wartime damages. While Trump has expressed optimism that a deal is close, other US officials remain cautious.The markets are already looking past the war and as long as the ceasefire holds, the downside will likely remain limited. Nevertheless, the risk that the conflict resumes at any moment is still there, so traders will need to stay nimble. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The potential extension of the US-Iran ceasefire could significantly impact oil prices and geopolitical stability. With the ceasefire set to expire soon, traders should keep an eye on crude oil futures, especially if tensions escalate again. A breakdown in negotiations could lead to supply disruptions, driving prices higher. Conversely, a successful extension might stabilize the market temporarily, but the underlying volatility remains. Look for key levels around recent highs in oil prices, as a breach could signal a shift in sentiment. Additionally, monitor how this situation affects related assets like energy stocks and ETFs, which often react to geopolitical news. The real story here is how traders position themselves ahead of the April 22 deadline—those who anticipate a breakdown might look to hedge their positions now, while others could see this as a buying opportunity if they believe in a continued ceasefire. 📮 Takeaway Watch for oil price movements around the April 22 deadline; a breakdown in talks could spike prices significantly.