The USD is kickstarting the North American session with a move to the upside. The menu of instruments are showing the USD higher, stocks lower, oil prices higher, and yields higher. The futures are implying Dow -170 points, the S&P down -25 points and the Nasdaq down -145 points (it tumbled -521 points yesterday). Looking at the treasury curve, the 2 year yield is up 1.4 basis points to 3.998%, the 10 year is ticking toward 4.50% with the yield currently up 4.6 basis points at 4.461%. Oil prices are trading at up near 2.5% and above $96. The video above takes a look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. What are the bias (bullish or bearish), the risks (in the short term that would disappoint the bias direction) and the targets on where the next technical levels need to be broken. Traders need the roadmap to navigate the fundamental headlines. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The USD’s upward movement signals a shift in market sentiment, and here’s why that matters: With stocks set to open lower and oil prices climbing, traders should be cautious. The anticipated drop in major indices like the Dow and S&P indicates risk aversion, likely driven by rising yields. Higher yields typically strengthen the USD as investors seek safer assets, which could lead to further declines in equities. If the USD continues to gain, it could pressure commodities, particularly oil, which is already on the rise. Traders should monitor the USD index closely for any breakout above recent highs, as this could reinforce the trend. Additionally, keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury yield; a sustained increase could exacerbate stock market declines. On the flip side, if the USD’s strength leads to a pullback in oil prices, it might create buying opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on short-term fluctuations. Watch for key levels in the USD and indices over the next few days to gauge market direction. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on the USD index for potential breakouts; a stronger dollar could pressure stocks and commodities in the coming days.

Trump tried to calm down the markets and the situation in Iran by extending his ‘deadline’ to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure by 10 days until April 6.That led to a quick jump in US stock futures and a drop in oil futures but it’s since reversed. WTI crude is now up $2.57 to $97.07 while S&P 500 futures are down 32 points.While the initial reaction was upbeat that Trump was saying negotiations were going well, the market appears to be concluding that there will be no oil flowing for another 10 days (and around 110 million barrels) and that Trump might not be telling the truth on negotiations.Today, the Iran Revolutionary Guard also clarified its stance on friendly vs unfriendly passage of the Strait of Hormuz to say:Any vessel traveling “to or from” ports belonging to allies and supporters of the Zionist–American adversaries is prohibited from transit, regardless of destination or route.The port detail is critical because there was a scenario where oil could travel through the Strait to those friendly countries like China and India and essentially reorient supply while narrowing the daily gap to only 2-3 million barrels. The IRGC appears to be getting ready for a war with other Gulf countries, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia.There is also the weekend risk that’s creeping into the market. Trump hasn’t exactly been truthful during negotiations and likes to launch operations on the weekend. The US has been gathering soldiers in the region and we could see an attack on Kharg Island or some other part of Iran after the close today or Saturday morning. Whether that escalates the war or cripples Iran is yet to be seen.In terms of markets, one spot to watch is USD/JPY as that pair flirts with 160.00. That’s a level that’s invited intervention in the past, something that could roil broader markets.Update: Axios cites a Trump deputy saying he expects the war to continue to ‘several’ more weeks. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Trump’s extension of the deadline on Iran is a classic case of market volatility driven by geopolitical tensions. Initially, we saw a spike in US stock futures and a dip in oil prices, but the reversal indicates traders are skeptical about the long-term impact. This kind of back-and-forth can create opportunities for day traders looking to capitalize on short-term movements. Keep an eye on WTI crude; if it breaks below recent support levels, we could see a more significant sell-off. Conversely, if tensions escalate again, oil could rebound sharply. The real story here is how quickly sentiment can shift based on news cycles, so traders should be ready to react. Watch for key levels in WTI crude—if it approaches a certain threshold, it could trigger stop-loss orders or attract new buyers. Also, monitor the broader market sentiment; if stocks continue to rally, it might signal a risk-on environment that could further pressure oil prices. 📮 Takeaway Watch WTI crude closely; a break below recent support could signal a deeper sell-off, while rising tensions may trigger a rebound.

The USDCAD has pushed to a new high for the week—and its highest level since January 20—in early North American trading. In doing so, the price has broken above a key swing area on the daily chart at 1.3860. That level was a clear bias-defining resistance, and the break tilts control more firmly in favor of the buyers.With that hurdle cleared, traders now shift their focus to the next upside target at the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the November high, which comes in at 1.3888. A move above that level would open the door for further upside momentum, with the next key target near 1.3928—an area defined by prior January highs and historical swing levels. That zone becomes a natural area where sellers may look to lean with defined risk.On the downside, if sellers are going to regain control, the first step is getting the price back below today’s low near 1.3446. That level held during the Asian and early European sessions and now serves as a short-term risk-defining support. A move below would disappoint buyers on the breakout and shift the bias more neutral in the near term.There is still more work for sellers to fully tilt the bias back in their favor, but holding above 1.3860 keeps the buyers in control. The playbook is straightforward: stay above resistance-turned-support and extend higher; fall back below and the breakout starts to fail.In the video above, I walk through these levels in detail and explain why they matter for defining bias, managing risk, and identifying the next targets. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The USDCAD just hit a weekly high, breaking through 1.3860 resistance, and here’s why that matters: This breakout is significant because it not only marks the highest level since January 20 but also suggests a shift in market sentiment. Traders should note that this level was previously a strong resistance point, and its breach could lead to further upward momentum. If the pair holds above 1.3860, we might see a push towards 1.3900, which could attract more buyers. Keep an eye on the daily chart for confirmation of this breakout, as a close above 1.3860 would solidify the bullish outlook. On the flip side, if the price retraces below this level, it could signal a false breakout, leading to potential selling pressure. The broader market context, including recent economic data from Canada and the US, could influence this pair’s movements. Watch for any shifts in interest rate expectations or economic indicators that might impact the CAD or USD, as these could create volatility around this level. 📮 Takeaway Traders should monitor the 1.3860 level closely; a sustained break above could target 1.3900, while a drop below may signal a reversal.

Yesterday, the US and Israel assassinated the leader of Iran’s navy and there are increasing signs that Iran is now taking a harder line on Hormuz.The WSJ reports that two container vessels belonging to China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping were turned back from crossing the Strait of Hormuz on Friday morning.The IRGC also appeared to broaden its definition of who could cross to include the ports they’re using:Any vessel traveling “to or from” ports belonging to allies and supporters of the Zionist–American adversaries is prohibited from transit, regardless of destination or route.The moves indicate that the trickle of traffic through Hormuz may now slow to only those ships that are loading in Iran, though I’m also watching Qatar as they’ve shifted rhetoric to be more neutral. Iran could also be bracing for some type of US ‘boots on the ground’ military operation this weekend in Kharg Island or some other area in the Persian Gulf.I think what matters for the market right now is the direction of travel for this war and — despite Trump’s comments — it doesn’t appear to be headed towards any kind of quick resolution. An Axios report a short time ago said the US is preparing for ‘several’ more weeks of war.That timeline is not conducive to a global economy that’s increasingly seeing signs of a shortage of oil. The oil analysts are screaming from the rooftops about a shock to the oil market and the potential for $150 oil and those calls are increasingly resonant. The 10-20 million barrels that are locked out of the market now are a big problem and there’s a growing possibility of strikes on oil production and processing facilities.Zooming out to the daily chart of S&P 500 futures, we’re back to September levels and there isn’t much support down to 6400. It will be tough for the market to rebound into a weekend where there are heightened risks of escalation, including ground attacks. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are escalating, and here’s why that matters for traders: The assassination of Iran’s navy leader signals a potential shift in Iran’s maritime strategy, which could disrupt oil supply routes. With two Chinese vessels already turned back, traders should be wary of increased volatility in oil prices. Historically, any military escalation in this region has led to sharp price spikes in crude oil, impacting not just oil futures but also currencies tied to oil exports, like the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone. Look for key resistance levels in crude oil around recent highs; a breach could trigger a wave of speculative buying. Additionally, monitor geopolitical news closely—any further Iranian retaliation could send shockwaves through the market. The real story is how quickly traders react to these developments. Keep an eye on the daily charts for oil and related assets, as the situation could evolve rapidly, affecting both short and long positions across the board. 📮 Takeaway Watch for crude oil prices; a breach of recent highs could signal significant upward momentum amid rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Prelim was 55.5Prior was 56.6Conditions 55.8 vs 57.8 prelimExpectations 51.7 vs 54.1 prelim1-year inflation 3.8% vs 3.4% prelim (prior was 3.4%)5-year inflation 3.2% vs 3.2% prelim (prior was 3.3%)The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers is one of the most closely watched gauges of US household confidence. Based on telephone interviews with roughly 600 households, the index (benchmarked to Q1 1966 = 100) captures attitudes toward personal finances, business conditions, and buying plans for durable goods. Markets pay particular attention to its preliminary release — typically mid-month — because it sometimes (not as much as in the past) moves bond yields, equity futures and the US dollar.The preliminary March 2026 reading fell to 55.5, down from 56.6 in February but slightly above the consensus estimate of 55.0. Current conditions edged up to 57.8, while the expectations component dropped to 54.1 — its weakest since November 2025. Interviews conducted before the US military action in Iran had actually shown improvement, but readings over the subsequent nine days erased those gains entirely.Gasoline prices have historically been one of the most direct transmission channels into sentiment. The survey has long exhibited an outsized sensitivity to fuel costs because they are highly visible, frequently purchased, and disproportionately burden lower-income households. Survey director Joanne Hsu noted that gasoline prices exerted the most immediate impact on consumers in the March survey, though the degree of pass-through to broader prices remains uncertain. A broad swath of respondents across income levels, age groups, and political affiliations reported weaker expectations for personal finances, which declined 7.5% nationally.On inflation, one-year expectations held at 3.4%, halting six consecutive months of declines, while five-year expectations ticked down to 3.2% from 3.3%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Consumer sentiment just took a hit, and here’s why that matters: the latest University of Michigan survey shows a drop in confidence from 56.6 to 55.5. This decline signals potential weakness in consumer spending, which is crucial for economic growth. With inflation expectations creeping up—1-year inflation at 3.8%—traders should be wary of how this might affect the Federal Reserve’s next moves. If consumer confidence continues to falter, it could lead to a more cautious approach from the Fed, impacting interest rates and, consequently, the forex market. Watch for how this sentiment shift might ripple through related assets like equities and commodities, as lower consumer confidence often translates to reduced demand. Keep an eye on the 55 level in the consumer sentiment index; a sustained drop below this could indicate a bearish trend. Also, monitor inflation metrics closely, as they could influence trading strategies in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Traders should watch the 55 level in consumer sentiment; a sustained drop could signal broader economic weakness and impact Fed policy.

The NASDAQ and S&P indices continue to press lower, with both now breaking below last Friday’s lows — a shift that tilts the bias more firmly to the downside.For the S&P index, the break below 6477.16 is a key technical development. Staying below that level keeps sellers in control and opens the door for a move toward the next downside target near 6346.89. A break below that level would have traders looking toward the August swing low at 6212.69, followed by the 38.2% retracement at 6174. A move to that retracement level would represent roughly an -11.76% decline from the late January all-time high.For the NASDAQ index, the price has moved below 21522.75, also breaking last Friday’s low. Holding below that level keeps the bearish bias intact and shifts focus to the next target — a swing area between 20931 and 21033. Below that zone, the next key level comes in at the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 2025 low at 20491.80. A move to that level would imply a decline of around -14% from the January 2026 high.The key now is simple: Stay below the broken support levels, and sellers remain in control with clear downside targets. Move back above, and the break starts to lose momentum.In the video above, I outline these levels in more detail and explain why they matter — they define the bias, the risk, and the targets. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The S&P’s drop below 6477.16 signals a bearish trend, and here’s why that matters: Breaking this key support level indicates a shift in market sentiment, pushing traders to reassess their positions. With both the NASDAQ and S&P indices trending lower, we could see increased selling pressure in the near term. This shift not only affects equities but could also ripple through correlated markets like tech stocks and ETFs, which often follow the broader indices. If sellers maintain control, we might witness a test of lower support levels, potentially leading to further declines. On the flip side, if the indices manage to reclaim the 6477.16 level, it could trigger a short-covering rally. Traders should keep an eye on volume trends and any potential news catalysts that could influence market sentiment. Watch for volatility spikes, especially if the indices approach this level again in the coming days. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the S&P index closely; a sustained move below 6477.16 could lead to further downside, impacting related markets.

Iran-linked hackers publicly claimed to have breached the personal inbox of FBI Director Kash Patel. They published photographs of him and his purported resume.Reuters confirmed via a Justice Dept official that his emails were compromised but the FBI didn’t immediately comment.Another notable Reuters report today is an exclusive that says the US can only confirm about one-third of Iran’s missile arsenal has been destroyed with another one-third likely damaged, destroyed or buried.Trump and his team have touted numbers upwards of 90% but those are disputed here. Moreover, there is talk that Iran has been digging out its underground ‘missile cities’ at 27 reported locations in the country. The thinking is that while the entrances have been damaged, the facilities are deep under mountains and still intact.The same report says that about one-third of Iran’s drones are destroyed.Despite a reported 10,000 US and Israeli strikes targeting Iran’s war machine, on Thursday alone, Iran fired 15 ballistic missiles at the UEA and 11 drones, according to the UAE’s Defense Ministry.The assessment highlights how Iran could sustain a war for months while continuing to block oil via the Strait of Hormuz.WTI crude oil was last up $2.53 to $97.01. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight So, the breach of FBI Director Kash Patel’s emails by Iran-linked hackers is a big deal for traders. This incident highlights the increasing risks associated with cybersecurity, especially for institutions that handle sensitive information. Traders should be aware that such breaches can lead to heightened volatility in markets, particularly in sectors like cybersecurity stocks and tech. If this situation escalates, we could see a ripple effect on related assets, as investors may flock to safer havens or tech stocks that offer cybersecurity solutions. Keep an eye on the broader implications for market sentiment and potential regulatory responses. Here’s the thing: while mainstream coverage might focus on the immediate fallout, the real story is how this could impact market stability. Traders should monitor cybersecurity stocks for potential spikes in interest and volatility, especially if more breaches are reported. Watch for key levels in those stocks, as they could provide trading opportunities in the coming days. 📮 Takeaway Watch for volatility in cybersecurity stocks as the fallout from the FBI email breach unfolds; key levels to monitor could signal trading opportunities.