Before the US-Iran conflict, EUR/USD took a run at the 1.2000 level as upside risks looked more likely to win out as we started the year. But in the last two weeks, the script has completely flipped amid surging energy prices globally. In particular, European gas has also surged higher in following oil prices as Iran threatens further disruption in the Gulf region.That has not only seen the dollar come back into favour but is also weighing on the euro amid higher energy prices. That might prove to be a drag on economic activity in the region, which until recently had looked rather resilient in trying to complete the recovery path. That is now dashed and traders have to recalibrate their bearings again.Danske Bank is one to note that the balance of risks have now shifted to the downside for EUR/USD, adding that they would take up a short position in the pair with eyes on the 1.1200 level next.”We think the Middle East energy shock shifts the EUR/USD outcome space also beyond the first-order terms-of-trade effect. We now recommend a tactical short EUR/USD spot position with a horizon of 1-3M with a target of 1.1200. We acknowledge that the interest rate differential between EUR and USD has narrowed notably in favour of the former, but we do not expect this to last. In our view, the ECB is very unlikely to hike against a pure supply shock especially, when longer-term inflation expectations remain little changed.”As seen from the chart above, the 1.1500 level is now the key line in the sand for the currency pair. That was what held the previous drop in November last year. As such, a firm break below that could really set off a trigger for much lower levels without much technical support in sight.The 1.1200 mark seems plausible, with the 100-week moving average not too far away at 1.1167 currently. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold broke out of its range on Wednesday as sentiment improved after Trump said on Tuesday that “the war could be over soon.” That prompted traders to scale back hawkish interest-rate expectations, which in turn put pressure on Treasury yields and the US dollar.However, the positive mood didn’t last long. Gold quickly fell back into the range after reports that US intelligence had detected signs Iran might be deploying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices began rising again, and the hawkish bets returned.Yesterday, Trump told Axios that there’s practically nothing left to target in Iran and that the war will end soon. Unfortunately, the market no longer seems to be buying the “war ending soon” narrative. His comments were largely ignored, as traders now want to see a clear and definitive end to the conflict.In the short term, the relief from a definitive de-escalation should be positive for gold, since expectations for rate cuts would likely return. What happens next, however, will largely depend on upcoming US data.If the data starts to show signs of weakness, the market will probably increase the bets on rate cuts, which should push gold to new highs. On the other hand, if the data continues to come in strong, gold will likely stay rangebound or potentially move lower.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold has been consolidating around the 5,100 level with traders awaiting new catalysts for the next direction. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the consolidation between the 5,000 support and the 5,200 resistance. The price briefly probed above the resistance but eventually returned inside the range. The market participants will continue to play the range by buying at support and selling at resistance until we get a breakout on either side. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the sellers will likely step in around the resistance with a defined risk above it to keep targeting the support, while the buyers will look for a breakout to pile in for a rally into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE price index, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and the Job Openings data. As a reminder, the market focus right now is solely on the US-Iran war, so the data might not matter much. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold’s recent breakout signals a shift in trader sentiment, but don’t get too comfortable just yet. The initial enthusiasm following Trump’s comments about a potential end to the war led to a dip in Treasury yields and the US dollar, creating a favorable environment for gold. However, this optimism quickly waned, indicating that market sentiment remains fragile. Traders should be cautious as this volatility can lead to rapid reversals. Watch for gold’s performance around key resistance levels, as a failure to hold above these could trigger profit-taking or renewed selling pressure. Additionally, keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators that could sway interest rate expectations again, especially if they lean hawkish. The flip side here is that if geopolitical tensions escalate or if inflation data comes in hotter than expected, gold could regain its safe-haven appeal. So, monitor the broader economic landscape closely, as it could provide hidden opportunities for positioning. For now, watch gold’s ability to maintain momentum above its recent breakout levels, as a close below could signal a return to the previous range. 📮 Takeaway Traders should monitor gold’s resistance levels closely; a failure to hold could lead to a swift reversal, while geopolitical tensions may offer new opportunities.

The move is aimed to stabilise marketsOnce again, it’s not so much about the big figure as touted in the headline. As mentioned yesterday:”As mentioned before, it could still take weeks for this oil supply to make its way to refineries and that is what markets need to consider….there are going to be many questions to factor in.How many barrels is the IEA going to draw down from its reserves in the first few weeks?How quickly can these barrels make its way to transport and be shipped to where it needs to go?What is the mix in crude quality that will be involved with the release?Who is going to handle all the logistics and make sure that these barrels can reach refineries in a timely manner?Are refineries able to handle the sudden surge when they all come at one go?It’s not as simple as saying that the 300 million to 400 million barrels will cover everything. There’s a lot more to it and that will be what really influences the outlook for the oil market as the Middle East conflict stretches on for longer.”At around the same time, the IEA also released its latest monthly report noting that the Middle East conflict is creating “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”. Adding that Gulf countries have cut their total oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day, with losses set to increase without any restart of shipping flows.In looking out for things to return to normal, the IEA notes that it will take “weeks and in some cases months for upstream production to return to pre-crisis levels”. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Oil supply disruptions are still a major concern, and here’s why that matters: traders need to keep an eye on the lag between supply announcements and actual market impact. The recent headlines might suggest immediate relief, but the reality is that it could take weeks for any new oil supply to reach refineries, which means prices might not stabilize as quickly as many hope. This delay could keep volatility high in the energy markets, affecting not just oil but also correlated assets like energy stocks and commodities. Traders should watch for key price levels in crude oil, particularly if it approaches recent highs or lows. If prices remain elevated, it could trigger further speculative trading, especially among retail investors looking to capitalize on perceived opportunities. On the flip side, if the market starts to price in a longer wait for supply, we could see a pullback. Keep an eye on the next few weeks for any shifts in sentiment or unexpected news that could sway prices significantly. 📮 Takeaway Monitor crude oil prices closely; if they approach key resistance levels, be ready for potential volatility as supply delays impact market sentiment.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar weakened across the board earlier this week as oil prices fell following G7 discussion about emergency oil reserves release. The move accelerated after Trump told CBS that “the war could be over soon.” Traders began unwinding some of their positions, as expectations of a quick resolution led markets to dial back hawkish interest-rate bets, putting pressure on the greenback.However, the trend reversed after reports that US intelligence had detected signs Iran might be deploying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing markets back into risk-off mode. Oil prices started rising again, and hawkish rate expectations quickly returned.Yesterday, Trump told Axios that there is practically nothing left to target in Iran and that the war will end soon. Unfortunately, markets no longer seem to be buying the “war ending soon” narrative. His comments were largely ignored, as traders now want to see a clear and definitive end to the conflict. Until that happens, the US dollar is likely to remain supported.GBP:On the GBP side, traders have erased all expectations of rate cuts and are now pricing in around a 40% chance of a rate hike by year-end. A similar shift has taken place across several other central banks, as higher oil prices have led markets to anticipate stronger inflation in the coming months and less room for policymakers to ease rates.On the data front, there hasn’t been much to drive markets in the meantime. Tomorrow we’ll get the UK’s monthly GDP report, but it will likely be ignored since all the pre-war data is old news.GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD rejected the major downward trendline and started falling again as US dollar bids returned. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into the 1.36 handle next. GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have an upward trendline that could act as support. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline to position for a break above the major downward trendline and target new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break below the upward trendline to increase the bearish bets into new lows.GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to start targeting a break above the major downward trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE price index, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and the Job Openings data. As a reminder, the market focus right now is solely on the US-Iran war, so the data might not matter much. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The recent dip in the US dollar could signal a shift in market sentiment, especially for crypto traders. With SOL currently at $86.76, the weakening dollar often boosts interest in alternative assets like cryptocurrencies. As oil prices drop, it’s worth noting that traders are unwinding positions, which could lead to increased volatility in both forex and crypto markets. If the dollar continues to weaken, we might see SOL and other altcoins gain traction as investors seek refuge from fiat. Keep an eye on the $90 resistance level for SOL; a breakout could trigger further bullish momentum. However, if the dollar rebounds, it could lead to a pullback in crypto prices. Watch for any news from G7 discussions that might impact oil prices and, by extension, the dollar’s strength, as this could create ripple effects across markets. 📮 Takeaway Monitor SOL’s resistance at $90; a breakout could signal bullish momentum, especially if the dollar continues to weaken.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe S&P 500 went back into risk aversion yesterday as reports of Iran deploying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and continuous attacks on ships sent oil prices higher again. Yesterday, Trump told Axios that there’s practically nothing left to target in Iran and that the war will end soon. Unfortunately, the market no longer seems to be buying the “war ending soon” narrative. His comments were largely ignored, as traders now want to see a clear and definitive end to the conflict. His jawboning strategy to keep markets buoyant while continuing the war isn’t working anymore.The longer this war drags on and the higher oil prices go, the worse the impact will be on the economy and the stock market. The bias remains neutral to bearish. S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 fell back below the 6,760 resistance zone as risk aversion returned. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the 6,530 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to start targeting the 6,900 level next.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a downward trendline defining the bearish structure. If the price gets there again, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. We can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above the major trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to target a move above the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE price index, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and the Job Openings data. As a reminder, the market focus right now is solely on the US-Iran war, so the data might not matter much. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Oil prices are spiking due to geopolitical tensions, and here’s why that matters for traders: The S&P 500’s shift back into risk aversion signals a broader market concern, particularly as rising oil prices can squeeze profit margins across various sectors. Traders should be wary of how this affects energy stocks and inflation-sensitive assets. With Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz, we could see volatility in oil futures, which often correlate with equities. Keep an eye on the $80 per barrel mark for crude; a sustained breach could trigger further sell-offs in the S&P 500. On the flip side, if tensions ease or if Trump’s comments about a potential end to conflict gain traction, we might see a quick rebound in risk assets. But for now, the market is reacting to uncertainty, and that could mean more downside risk in the short term. Watch for any news updates that could shift sentiment, particularly around oil supply disruptions or diplomatic developments. 📮 Takeaway Monitor crude oil prices around $80; a sustained rise could lead to further S&P 500 declines amid heightened geopolitical risks.

Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures are down 0.4% on the day after a bit of a mixed showing yesterday. At the balance, tech shares managed to help keep risk from falling off in the day before. But when you factor in all that has transpired since the US-Iran conflict started, US stocks have not been hurt that badly.The S&P 500 is now down just 1% for the year after the close yesterday. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is down a little over 2% for the year so far and the Dow also down by slightly over 1%. And even on the charts, you can see that it is a case of bend but don’t break just yet for US stocks.Sure, the upside momentum has been taken away. The Nasdaq already saw that in February on a break of its 100-day moving average (red line). And the latest developments in the Middle East is even seeing a run at the October and November lows, with a test of the 200-day moving average (blue line) as well.That is now the key line in the sand for tech shares. A firm break below that level and the 22,000 mark will set off another big wave of selling. And that could be where the real correction starts for US stocks and big tech in general. The flip of the double top pattern at 24,000 could indicate a reversal back towards the 20,000 mark. That is roughly another 12% drop from where we are now, which will be a significant retracement at least.As for the S&P 500, the war has seen the index break back under its own 100-day moving average (red line) for the first time since May last year. That in itself points to a material shift in the momentum in Wall Street. But just like the Nasdaq, we’re not seeing any further breakdown in the charts just yet.The 200-day moving average (blue line) at around 6,596 is the next crucial point before the October and November lows come in around 6,525-50 next. Those will be important levels to watch if higher oil prices continue to reverberate across broader markets in the days/weeks ahead. From earlier: Oil prices continue to be the tail that is wagging the dog This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down 0.4%, and here’s why that matters: The recent dip in futures reflects a broader market sentiment that’s increasingly cautious, especially in tech. While tech shares previously provided some support, the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are likely weighing heavily on investor confidence. Traders should be mindful of how these tensions could escalate, impacting not just equities but also related sectors like energy and commodities. If the futures continue to slide, it could trigger stop-loss orders and amplify selling pressure, particularly in tech-heavy ETFs. Look for key support levels in the S&P 500 around the recent lows. If we see a break below those levels, it could signal a more significant downturn. Conversely, if tech shares manage to rally back, that could provide a lifeline for the broader market. Keep an eye on the daily charts for any reversal patterns or volume spikes that might indicate a shift in sentiment. The next few trading sessions will be crucial for gauging whether this dip is a temporary pullback or the start of a more pronounced correction. 📮 Takeaway Watch for key support levels in the S&P 500; a break below could signal further downside, while a tech rally might stabilize the market.

This is an interesting development to say the least. There are reports going around that an oil tanker has made its way from Saudi Arabia to India via the Strait of Hormuz, the first such case since the US-Iran conflict started. The ‘Shenlong Suezmax’ is an oil tanker owned by Shenlong Shipping Ltd and managed by Dynacom Tanker Management Ltd, has reportedly passed through the Strait of Hormuz two days ago.The tanker is said to have loaded crude oil from Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura port on 1 March before departing on 3 March. Maritime tracking data showed that the vessel was seen navigating near the Strait of Hormuz on 8 March before disappearing from system monitoring. That likely means that the AIS tracking was turned off i.e. “going dark”.As mentioned earlier, the latest speculation is that only “shadow fleets” are crossing the strait but mostly ones with ties to Iran or certain sanctioned entities. These are vessels operating with their AIS transponders turned off.Reuters was also out with a headline earlier in the day noting that an Indian source revealed that Iran has allowed “Indian-flagged tankers” to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. I’m guessing the source was too excited to point to this case above.However, just note that this could be a one-off case that managed to slip past Iran’s monitors. That as Iranian sources were quick to refute the statement in saying that it “does not allow Indian tankers or any tankers” to pass through the strait currently.If anything, I won’t take this as being a green light that things are starting to normalise in the Strait of Hormuz. The fact that this vessel has had to turn off its AIS transponder and fly under the radar in hopes of not being caught says a lot about how things are still playing out. Sure, you can take the risk of doing that if you’re brave enough to FAFO. But otherwise, I can’t imagine a lot of commercial vessels and companies having that same appetite to do so. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight This oil tanker movement from Saudi Arabia to India is a game changer, especially given the geopolitical tensions in the region. For traders, this signals a potential shift in oil supply dynamics that could impact crude prices. If this route becomes more common, it might ease some supply constraints and influence the broader energy market. Keep an eye on Brent and WTI crude prices as they could react sharply to this news. Also, watch for any statements from OPEC or the U.S. government, as they might provide further context or implications for future shipments. On the flip side, if tensions escalate again, we could see a spike in volatility. Traders should monitor the price levels around $80 for Brent and $75 for WTI, as these could be crucial support or resistance points in the coming days. 📮 Takeaway Watch Brent crude around $80 and WTI around $75; geopolitical tensions could lead to volatility in oil prices.

CPI Y/Y 3.2% vs 3.1% expectedPrior 2.1% (revised to 2.7%)India’s retail inflation accelerated more than expected in February, reaching 3.21% on an annual basis. This follows a revised reading of 2.74% in January and surpasses the 3.1% consensus estimate predicted by economists.The latest data, released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Thursday, marks the second month of reporting under India’s newly revised Consumer Price Index (CPI) framework, which recently shifted its base year from 2012 to 2024.The primary catalyst for the uptick was a jump in food prices. Inflation for the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) rose to 3.47% in February, a significant increase from the 2.13% recorded in January.Under the new 2024 base year, the weightage of food in the CPI basket has been reduced from approximately 46% to 36.75%. Despite this lower weight, the volatility in food costs remains a dominant factor in headline inflation movements. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had previously cautioned that an “unfavourable base effect” from early 2025 would likely lead to a year-on-year uptick. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving the Strait of Hormuz, have raised concerns about future “imported inflation” via rising global oil and energy prices.The inflation rate remains below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 4.0%. In its February meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, maintaining a “neutral” stance.The central bank is expected to remain in a “wait-and-see” mode, balancing the need to support 8% GDP growth with the risk of supply-side shocks in the food and energy sectors. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight India’s CPI jump to 3.21% is a wake-up call for traders: inflation’s back on the radar. This uptick, surpassing the 3.1% forecast, signals potential shifts in monetary policy. Traders should keep an eye on the Reserve Bank of India’s next moves, as rising inflation could prompt interest rate adjustments. With retail inflation climbing from a revised 2.74% in January, the trend suggests that consumer prices are heating up, which could impact the Indian Rupee and related assets like Indian equities. If inflation continues to rise, we might see volatility in the forex market, particularly against the USD/INR pair. But here’s the flip side: if inflation pressures lead to tighter monetary policy, it could also strengthen the Rupee in the short term as investors seek stability. Watch for key levels around 82.50 for USD/INR, as a break below could signal bullish sentiment for the Rupee. Keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators and central bank commentary for further clues on market direction. 📮 Takeaway Monitor USD/INR around 82.50; a break below could signal a bullish trend for the Rupee as inflation pressures mount.

RaboResearch highlights that US rare earths inventories may cover only about two months after depletion from the Iran conflict, potentially giving China significant leverage. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight US rare earths inventories are dwindling, and here’s why that matters: With only about two months of supply left, the potential fallout from the Iran conflict could shift market dynamics dramatically. Traders need to consider how this scarcity might impact prices, especially given China’s dominant position in the rare earths market. If the US can’t replenish its stocks quickly, we could see a spike in prices as demand outstrips supply. This situation could also ripple through related sectors like tech and renewable energy, where rare earths are crucial. Look for key levels in rare earth ETFs or stocks that rely on these materials. If prices start to climb, it could trigger a broader market reaction. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments and supply chain disruptions, as they could further exacerbate the situation. The real story here is how quickly the US can adapt to this looming shortage and what strategies traders might employ to capitalize on potential price movements. 📮 Takeaway Watch for rare earth prices to react sharply if US inventories drop below two months, signaling potential supply chain issues and price spikes.