Rate cuts by year-endFed: 35 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)BoE: 13 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)SNB: 8 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)Rate hikes by year-endRBA: 55 bps (58% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)BoJ: 48 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 43 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)ECB: 23 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)BoC: 18 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)You can find last week’s market pricing here.This week was all about the US-Iran war and the surging energy prices amid the basically blocked Strait of Hormuz. This has led to a hawkish repricing across the board as traders focused on the inflation risk and the central banks’ inability to cut rates. In fact, central banks are now in a tough spot. If they cut rates to support the economy, it could lead to more serious problems with inflation in the future. On the other hand, if the economy weakens and they wait hoping for the event to be “transitory”, they could end up with a recession. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight With the Fed, BoE, and SNB signaling stability, traders need to recalibrate their strategies accordingly. The current probabilities suggest a strong likelihood of no rate changes in the near term, which could lead to a period of consolidation in forex pairs, particularly those involving USD, GBP, and CHF. Traders should be aware that the RBA’s potential hike could create volatility in AUD pairs, especially if it diverges from the broader trend of stability. This environment may favor range trading strategies as markets digest these signals. Keep an eye on key levels: for USD pairs, watch the 1.10 level against the EUR, as a break could indicate a shift in sentiment. The real story is how these central bank decisions will ripple through related assets—equities may react positively to the stability, while commodities could see mixed results depending on demand forecasts. As we approach the next Fed meeting, monitor the economic indicators closely; any surprises could lead to rapid shifts in market sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Watch the 1.10 level on EUR/USD as a potential breakout point, especially with central banks signaling stability ahead of their meetings.

Headlines:Oil prices resume climb to start European morning tradeQatar warns that the Middle East conflict could disrupt energy exports for weeks to monthsQatar reportedly offers to lease LNG tankers as Ras Laffan plant stays shutWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?Japan reportedly mulls releasing national oil reserves amid Middle East conflictJapan finance minister says will respond nimbly to latest market movementsBOJ policymaker Himino: Underlying inflation gradually accelerating to 2% targetECB policymaker Sleijpen: We can tolerate a small inflation overshootEurozone Q4 final GDP +0.2% vs +0.3% q/q second estimateUK February Halifax house prices +0.3% vs +0.3% m/m expectedMarkets:WTI crude oil up 6% at $86.15, Brent crude oil up almost 5% to $89.30USD bid across the board, EUR and NZD lag on the dayStocks fall in Europe, DAX down 0.8% while CAC 40 down 1.1%US futures slide as well, with S&P 500 futures down 0.6%10-year yields up 2.7 bps to 4.173%Gold up 0.2% to $5,090, Silver up 0.2% to $82.36Bitcoin down 1.5% to $70,017The chaos returns as markets are now starting to grow even more anxious about the US-Iran conflict ahead of the weekend.The big trigger on the session was when Qatar warned of the energy disruption potentially lasting for “weeks to months”. That even if tensions were to thaw today and if the Strait of Hormuz becomes safe to transit again, which isn’t the case. That warning signal was enough to give markets a reality check on the situation and we’re now seeing things kick up a notch ahead of US trading.Oil prices were tentative earlier on in the day but have now jumped to fresh highs since the conflict started. WTI crude oil in particular is now looking at over 6% gains in hitting $86 a barrel. As mentioned earlier in the week, the moment we really clear $80 is when the market sentiment really shifts and that is exactly what we are seeing. And that’s leading to a more rapid rise with $100 to quickly be in question soon enough.As oil prices surge, we’re seeing the familiar theme this week follow up on that. The dollar is catching broad bids against the rest of the major currencies with only the loonie holding its own against the greenback.EUR/USD is now down 0.4% to 1.1560 after hovering around 1.1610 earlier in the day. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is down 0.3% to 1.3315 after keeping around 1.3370 at the start of the session. USD/JPY is staying underpinned as well despite intervention risks, keeping within touching distance of the 158.00 level. USD/CAD is the only one trading flat at 1.3665 as the loonie benefits from higher oil prices.In the equities space, European indices are continuing to be hammered down to close out the week. The DAX is down 0.8% with the CAC 40 down 1.1%. The former is setting up for a near 7% drop this week with the latter down by a little over 7% already now.US futures are also seen slumping after holding near flat at the end of Asia trading. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.6% as the jitters creep in. That’s teeing up for a negative week but at least not as bad as what we’re seeing in Europe.In other markets, precious metals continue to see volatile swings with gold up just 0.2% to $5,090. We saw price move up to a high of $5,144 in Asia but the selling returned as it has all week long in tempering any rebound in gold. The precious metal is now poised for its first weekly loss in five.As for bonds, we are seeing yields push higher still as traders continue to weigh inflation fears more than safety flows at the moment. 10-year Treasury yields are now up to 4.175%, its highest in five weeks.Well, we have the US non-farm payrolls coming up to round off the week. But given how markets are distracted by all else that is going on, don’t expect all too much of a strong reaction to the job figures this time around. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Oil prices are on the rise again, and here’s why traders need to pay attention: With Qatar warning that ongoing Middle East tensions could disrupt energy exports for weeks, the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical events is heightened. This could lead to increased volatility in oil prices, especially if supply concerns escalate. Traders should keep an eye on key resistance levels, as a sustained break above recent highs could signal further upward momentum. Additionally, the potential leasing of LNG tankers indicates a shift in logistics that could affect natural gas prices as well. If Japan decides to release its national oil reserves, it could temporarily ease supply concerns but may not be enough to offset the broader geopolitical risks. So, while the immediate impact might be bullish for oil, the underlying risks remain. Watch for any news from Qatar and Japan, as these developments could create trading opportunities. Keep an eye on the daily charts for oil, particularly around key levels that could trigger buy or sell signals. 📮 Takeaway Monitor oil prices closely; a break above recent highs could signal further gains, while geopolitical developments from Qatar and Japan are key watchpoints.

Will find out today if the labour market is turning a cornerJanuary job gains were concentrated, did not give comfort that economy as a whole was doing wellExpect January jobs number to be revised downCould see the March meeting going either way depending on the dataDon’t see a lot of tariff price risk left at this pointPeople will see a spike in gas prices an be shockedBut it is unlikely to cause sustained inflationIf the conflict lasts longer, then it could have a broader impactThose are some interesting comments though I’m not too sure what he is really implying by the March meeting possibly “going either way”. As things stand, traders are not expecting any interest rate moves by the Fed until after the summer at least. The US-Iran conflict has definitely changed the landscape in that regard.The odds of the Fed leaving policy unchanged in March are at ~96% currently, according to Fed fund futures. And the next full 25 bps rate cut is only priced in for October now. That’s been kicked down from July ever since last week. And for the remainder of the year, traders are only seeing ~35 bps of rate cuts priced in. That is a far cry from the ~58 bps before the conflict began.As for his take on inflationary pressures stirred up by the Middle East situation, that is pretty much the default answer that every central banker will be giving in the days/weeks ahead. I wouldn’t expect anything different. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Today’s labor market data could be a game changer for traders. If January’s job gains are revised down, it might signal a weakening economy, impacting everything from forex to crypto. A soft jobs report could push the Fed to reconsider its rate hike plans, which would ripple through markets. Traders should keep an eye on how this data influences the dollar and risk assets like Bitcoin. If the dollar weakens, we might see a bullish trend in crypto, while a strong jobs report could lead to a sell-off in both stocks and digital assets. Here’s the kicker: the March Fed meeting is looming, and the data released today could sway their decision. If the jobs numbers disappoint, it might lead to a dovish stance, which could be bullish for risk assets. Conversely, a strong report could solidify expectations for further rate hikes, putting pressure on both equities and crypto. Watch for key levels in the dollar index and Bitcoin; a break below certain thresholds could signal a shift in sentiment. Keep your charts ready and monitor the news closely today! 📮 Takeaway Watch today’s labor market data closely; a weak report could signal a bullish shift for crypto and risk assets.

In the video above, I take a look at the technicals driving the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – as the price action defines the bias, the risk and targets during the news driven market. That news will shift – at least temporarily to the US jobs report and the retail sale. The US jobs report will take center stage at 8:30 AM ET. The consensus for the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report is for a softer headline job gain of around 59,000, following January’s strong reading that was boosted by seasonal factors typically seen at the start of the year. One notable downside factor is the United Nurses Associations of California strike, which could subtract roughly 31,000 workers from the payroll count since those employees did not work during the survey period. This would represent the largest strike-related impact on the labor report since the Boeing strike in October 2024 and should reverse in the March data once those workers return. In addition, winter storms and poor weather in late January may have disrupted the household survey and weighed on February reporting. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, though some analysts see risks of a slight uptick to 4.4%, with several major banks flagging that as a possible outcome despite keeping 4.3% as their base case. Overall, markets are likely to interpret the data cautiously given these temporary distortions.The skew of estimates is showing: Non-Farm Payrolls (Last 130K)-9K to 125K range of estimates40K-75K range most clustered59K consensusUnemployment Rate (Last 4.3%)4.4% (36%)4.3% (58%) – consensus4.2% (6%)Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y (Last 3.7%)3.7% (85%) – consensus3.6% (12%)3.5% (3%)Average Hourly Earnings M/M (Last month 0.4%)0.4% (5%)0.3% (85%) – consensus0.2% (7%)0.1% (3%)Average Weekly Hours (Last month 34.3 hours)34.4 (3%)34.3 (77%) – consensus34.2 (20%)In addition to the jobs report, US retail sales for January will be released with the headline expectations of -0.3% versus 0.0% last month. The ex auto is expected 0.0% unchanged from the previous month. The control group is expected at 0.2% versus -0.1% last monthperiod.Going into the data, the expectations of no cut in March is 99%. The market is pricing and 35 basis points of cuts between now and the end of the year. Last week, the market had Preston 59 basis points. Higher oil prices from the Iran war is the main concern.Meanwhile in Iran and the middle east:Military escalationU.S. and Israeli strikes continue across Iran, with explosions reported in Tehran and other areas as the conflict enters roughly its seventh day.The campaign is targeting missile bases, military infrastructure, and nuclear-related sites as part of the ongoing U.S.–Israel operation against Iran.Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases and allied countries in the Gulf, including Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. Rumblings that the US dragged the oil states into the war are starting to surface. Trump commentsPresident Trump said Iran is being “demolished ahead of schedule,” claiming Iranian air defenses and air force capabilities have been largely destroyed.He has also suggested the U.S. should have a role in determining Iran’s next leadership, adding political uncertainty around the conflict.Iran’s responseIranian officials warn they are prepared for a possible U.S. ground invasion and threaten heavy casualties if that occurs.Tehran continues to launch missile and drone strikes across the region, including attacks on Gulf infrastructure and shipping routes.Regional expansionIsraeli strikes have also hit targets in Lebanon, especially Hezbollah-linked areas in Beirut and the Bekaa Valley.The war has already spread across the region with attacks on U.S. bases and shipping in the Gulf, raising concerns about broader escalation.Crude oil futures are trading at $86.10 up $5.09 from the settled price yesterday or 6.28% in volatile trading. The high price has reached $86.60. The low price is at $78.24.There is a lot of Fedspeak today with Waller currently speaking. A slew of other speakers will be speaking today. It is the last opportunity for the Fed members to speak as the Fed goes into the “blackout period” ahead of the next Fed meeting on March 18. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The current volatility in the EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD pairs is a trader’s playground, but it requires sharp focus. With news events looming, these pairs are likely to experience significant price swings. Traders should keep an eye on key support and resistance levels, as these will dictate potential entry and exit points. For instance, if the EURUSD breaks below a specific support level, it could trigger a wave of selling, while a bounce off resistance might signal a buying opportunity. The interplay between these currency pairs can also affect correlated markets like commodities and equities, especially if the dollar strengthens or weakens dramatically. So, it’s crucial to stay updated on economic indicators that could influence these movements, such as interest rate decisions or employment reports. Here’s the thing: while the news can create opportunities, it can also lead to unexpected volatility. Traders should be prepared for rapid changes in sentiment and adjust their strategies accordingly. 📮 Takeaway Watch for key support and resistance levels in EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD as news events unfold; volatility could create trading opportunities.

Prior was 0.0%Details:Ex-autos 0.0% vs 0.0% expectedPrior ex autos 0.0% Ex autos and gas +0.3% vs 0.0% prior (revised to +0.1%)Control group +0.3%% vs +0.2% expectedPrior control -0.1% (revised to 0.0%)Retail sales y/y +3.2% vs +2.4% priorThis is January data, so it’s old news and it’s not going to change anything for the market as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and the surging energy prices. The NFP report is also stealing the show with the huge downside surprise in the headline jobs number and the uptick in the unemployment rate.What does the Retail Sales report measure?The Advance Monthly Retail Sales report, published by the U.S. Census Bureau, provides the earliest monthly snapshot of consumer spending across retail sectors. Released approximately two weeks after the end of each reference month at 8:30 a.m. ET, the report measures sales at retail and food service establishments, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes. The data serves as a critical indicator of consumer demand and economic health, tracking thirteen major retail categories from motor vehicles and electronics to food services and nonstore retailers. The report includes both headline retail sales and “retail control” sales, which exclude more volatile categories like autos, gasoline, and building materials, providing a cleaner measure of underlying consumer spending that feeds into GDP calculations. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Retail sales data just dropped, and here’s why it matters: January’s figures show a surprising uptick in consumer spending, with a year-over-year increase of 3.2%, beating the expected 2.4%. This could signal a stronger-than-anticipated economic recovery, which might influence the Fed’s next moves on interest rates. But don’t get too excited just yet. The control group data, which is often more telling, came in at +0.3%, slightly above expectations but still reflecting a cautious consumer. With inflation still a concern, traders should keep an eye on how this data interacts with broader economic indicators like employment rates and inflation metrics. If spending continues to rise, we could see upward pressure on interest rates, which would impact both forex and crypto markets. Watch for any shifts in the USD and related assets, as they could react to these retail trends. Key levels to monitor are the resistance at recent highs for the USD and any support levels in crypto that might be tested if the dollar strengthens further. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on consumer spending trends; if retail sales continue to rise, it could lead to a stronger USD and impact crypto prices significantly.

Prior 130K revise to 126Knonfarm payroll -92K vs +50 9K estimateDecember was 48K. November was 41K Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.3% expected. Prior month 4.3%. Average hourly earnings 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. Prior month 0.4% average hourly earnings YoY 3.8% versus 3.7% expected. Prior month 3.7%. Participation rate 62.0% versus 62.1% (revise from 62.5%)U6 unemployment rate 7.9% versus 8.1% (revised from 8.0%)Looking at the details by different sector:February employment change by sector (strongest → weakest)Financial activities: +10K (Jan -30K)Other services: +8K (Jan +8K)Wholesale trade: +6K (Jan +3K)Retail trade: +2K (Jan +11K)Utilities: +1K (Jan 0K)Mining & logging: -2K (Jan -2K)Professional & business services: -5K (Jan +18K)Transportation & warehousing: -11K (Jan -12K)Construction: -11K (Jan +48K)Information: -11K (Jan -19K)Manufacturing: -12K (Jan +5K)Leisure & hospitality: -27K (Jan -12K)Private education & health services: -34K (Jan +129K)Sector totalsGoods-producing: -25K (Jan +51K)Private service-providing: -61K (Jan +95K)Key takeaway: The biggest positive contributor in February was financial activities, while the largest declines came from private education & health services and leisure & hospitality, which swung sharply lower from strong gains in January.There is some weather issues. There was some strike effects of around -30K (which will come back). Perhaps seasonals are tough especially with an aging population. Immigration has virtually stopped. AI may be starting to show its ugly face, but overall the number is much weaker than expectations.The market has sent the yields lower with the 10 year down -2.0 basis points to 4.125%. The yield was up about 2.5% in premarket trading.US stocks have moved to the downside with the S&P down -74 points the Dow Industrial Average is down -525 points in the NASDAQ index is down -334 points.The USD has moved lower but is rebounding. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The latest nonfarm payroll data just dropped, and it’s a mixed bag that traders need to unpack. With the revision of prior payrolls from 130K to 126K and a surprising drop of 92K against an expected rise of 50K, the labor market’s strength is under scrutiny. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, slightly above expectations, which could signal a cooling economy. On the flip side, average hourly earnings rose by 0.4%, indicating wage growth is still robust, potentially fueling inflation concerns. This could impact the Fed’s next moves, especially if they perceive the labor market as weakening. Traders should watch for volatility in related markets, particularly in equities and forex, as this data could influence interest rate expectations. Here’s the thing: while the labor market shows signs of strain, the wage growth might keep inflation fears alive. Keep an eye on the S&P 500 and USD pairs, especially if they react to these figures. Watch for key levels around the 4,000 mark on the S&P and how the dollar index responds in the coming days, as these could set the tone for market sentiment moving forward. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the S&P 500 around the 4,000 level and watch the dollar index for potential volatility following this mixed jobs report.

Fed Pres. Mary Daly (2027 voting member) on CNBC and says: One month of data is decisionalright now inflation is above target. It’s a balance of risks calculation.Hope last year’s rate cuts would put a floor under job market, but this report has my attention.With oil prices increasing the question is how long will that last.Fed cannot look through this report, but it’s just one month of data.If breakeven is 30K, we are below that, but it’s only a couple months of data.Wages need to be inflation plus productivity growth which is higherthis wage growth is not a sign of frothinessWorried labor market is weaker than we have seen.There are 2 sided risks.Oil price shock is a real thing, consumers will feel that.Labor market gives me some concern, but strikes, snow, population benchmarking make report harder to interpret.Need more time to decide.Little optimistic that AI will help drive productivity, but need to see it.Another policy alternative is to hold rates steady.Not in a position to think we should hide.There is a real issue if we should act immediately on labor market, or weight.We have to be steady in the boat while we collect more information.Have not seen evidence economy is running hot.Bottom line: Daly signaled caution and patience, acknowledging labor market concerns but stressing the need for more data before adjusting policy.Below are the comments by topic:InflationInflation is still above the Fed’s target.Policymaking right now is a balance-of-risks calculation.Rising oil prices could pose an inflation shock, and consumers will feel the impact if the move persists.Wage growth is not showing signs of frothiness and should ideally equal inflation plus productivity growth, which has improved.Labor marketThe latest employment report has her attention, raising concerns the labor market may be weaker than previously thought.If the breakeven pace of job growth is around 30K, the latest reading came in below that level.She is worried the labor market could be weaker than it appears.Interpreting the jobs reportOne month of data is not decisive, though it cannot be ignored.Temporary distortions such as strikes, snow, and population benchmarking revisions make the latest report harder to interpret.The Fed needs more time and additional data before drawing firm conclusions.Monetary policy outlookThe Fed cannot ignore the latest report, but policy decisions should not be based on a single data point.There are two-sided risks to the outlook.One policy option would be to hold rates steady while gathering more information.The Fed must remain steady while assessing incoming data.Policymakers are not in a position to react immediately to labor market weakness without further confirmation.Growth and productivityShe has not seen evidence that the economy is running hot.There is some optimism that AI could boost productivity, but it remains too early to be certain. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Mary Daly’s comments on inflation and job market stability are crucial for traders right now. With inflation still above target and rising oil prices, the Fed’s next moves could shift market sentiment significantly. Traders should be wary of potential rate hikes if inflation persists, which could impact equities and commodities alike. The balance of risks she mentioned suggests volatility ahead, especially for sectors sensitive to interest rates. Keep an eye on the upcoming economic data releases, as they could sway the Fed’s stance and, consequently, market direction. If inflation indicators continue to rise, we might see a stronger dollar and pressure on risk assets. Watch for key levels in the S&P 500 and oil prices; a breakout or breakdown could signal broader market trends. The real story here is how traders react to these signals—are they pricing in more aggressive Fed action or holding back? This could set the stage for significant moves in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Monitor inflation data closely; if it continues to rise, expect potential Fed rate hikes that could impact equities and commodities significantly.