French business confidence fell roughly two points in February to 97 (unrounded 97.4) after the 99 (unrounded 99.3) reading in January. This puts a dent in the recovery optimism with this being the weakest estimate since October last year. Of note, the business climate continues to hold below the long-term average of 100 still. The last time the indicator was above the key threshold was all the way back in March 2024.Of note, we’re seeing a deterioration in both manufacturing and services confidence on the month. The former fell to 102 in February, down from 105 in January. Meanwhile, the latter dropped to 95 in February – down from 98 in the month before.Besides that, there were also notable declines in the retail trade climate (dropping to 98 from 99 before) and more importantly the employment climate. The latter continues to trend lower, indicating weakening labour market conditions in French economy. The index there falls to 93 (unrounded 92.7) in February, marking the lowest estimate since April 2021.The report here is one that tends to fly under the radar but it does provide some general idea of business activity sentiment in the French economy. The PMI data is no doubt more comprehensive but at least this doubles up as a secondary indication of how things are playing out on the ground. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight French business confidence just dropped to 97, and here’s why that matters: This decline signals a potential slowdown in economic momentum, which could ripple through the Eurozone. Traders should be wary, as lower business confidence often leads to reduced investment and spending, impacting GDP growth forecasts. With the reading now the weakest since October, it raises questions about the sustainability of the recovery. If this trend continues, we might see the Euro under pressure against the dollar, especially if the ECB feels compelled to adjust its monetary policy stance. Look for key levels around 1.05 for EUR/USD; a break below could trigger further selling. Keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators, especially employment data, as they could provide insight into whether this dip is a blip or part of a larger trend. The market’s reaction may also depend on how institutional investors interpret these signals, so watch for shifts in sentiment and positioning. 📮 Takeaway Monitor EUR/USD closely; a drop below 1.05 could signal further bearish momentum as business confidence wanes.

Well, you can certainly bet that Beijing is smirking and if not laughing with glee over the whole situation. Their hard line stance against Trump looks to be paying off now as the US administration is forced to back down on the high tariffs applied against China. And one can reasonably assume that this will continue to be their tactic in dealing with the US president until his term ends. That is to be patient and ride out the storm.The Chinese commerce ministry is out with some remarks now, in responding to the tariffs change:Closely monitoring relevant measures by the USWill decided at the right time on adjusting countermeasuresUrges the US to abandon the concept of unilateral tariffsChina willing to hold another round of trade talks with the USExpects “candid” trade talks in the near futureIt doesn’t seem that Beijing is going to go so far to kick Trump when he is down. That especially since the US president is sure to try and find ways to hit back hard again, either through Section 301 or Section 232 investigations.But as mentioned before, any other avenue will require arguably six to twelve months before an official ruling is given and the tariffs approved. Sure, Trump can speedrun that by playing the presidential card but any shortcuts will surely invite legal challenges and open up another whole can of worms when the time comes.For now though, it’s 15% tariffs for the next 150 days. And this is one that doesn’t look likely to be extended further with Congress not having the constitutional appetite to do so. You can bet that China is quite happy about that. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The resulting policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on the greenback, even though nothing has actually changed.Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer has stated that the tariff deals remain in place and they will be honoured. Moreover, the new levies actually reduce the effective average tariff rate.The dollar recouped most of the losses yesterday, but it might remain rangebound for now as traders await new catalysts and further developments. The real risks remain a potential US-Iran military escalation which could boost the greenback on severe risk-off mood or a hawkish repricing on stronger US data which would have a positive effect on the USD. Fed’s Waller placed a great deal on next week’s NFP report. JPY:On the JPY side, the currency weakened today as Mainichi reported that Prime Minister Takaichi expressed reservations about further rate hikes with BoJ Governor Ueda in their meeting last week. At the last policy decision, Governor Ueda mentioned that April price behaviour will be a factor to mull over a rate hike, but the data hasn’t been supporting rate hikes at all. In fact, the latest Japanese CPI eased further and the Tokyo CPI on Friday is expected to continue this trend. The market is expecting the next hike in June at the earliest with a total of 46 bps of tightening seen by year-end (two rate hikes). The Japanese yen will continue to weaken as rate hike expectations get pushed further out. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY extended the gains into the downward trendline today following the Mainichi report. We can expect the sellers to step in around the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop back into the major upward trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 159.00 handle next. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is probing above the downward trendline. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the upward trendline to position for a rally into the 159.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 152.00 support. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price is trading above the upper bound of the average daily range for today. In such instances, we can generally see some consolidation or a pullback before the next move. If do get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the minor upward trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to target the next trendline. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the weekly US ADP jobs data. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the Tokyo CPI and the US PPI report. Also, keep watching out for US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The US dollar’s recent weakness signals potential volatility ahead for forex traders. With the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, we’re seeing a ripple effect of policy uncertainty that could impact dollar strength. Traders should note that while the tariffs were struck down, the existing tariffs remain in place, which complicates the overall trade landscape. This uncertainty might lead to increased volatility in the forex market, particularly against major pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD. If the dollar continues to weaken, it could push these pairs higher, creating opportunities for swing traders looking to capitalize on short-term movements. Keep an eye on key support and resistance levels in these pairs, as they could provide actionable entry and exit points. Here’s the thing: while the mainstream narrative focuses on the immediate implications of the court’s ruling, the real story is the potential for further policy shifts. Traders should monitor any upcoming economic data releases or statements from the Fed that could influence market sentiment. Watch for the dollar index to test critical levels; a break below recent lows could signal a deeper bearish trend. 📮 Takeaway Watch the dollar index closely; a break below recent lows could trigger further weakness, impacting major forex pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

The dollar is having a bit of a choppy last few sessions, having to deal with geopolitical risks and the Supreme Court decision in shooting down Trump’s tariffs. The former is mostly centering around tensions between US and Iran right now. And despite uncertain and erratic policy handling by the US administration, the dollar isn’t exactly too heavily punished like what we saw in response to the Venezuela situation last month. Or perhaps, not so much yet.That being said, BofA is taking on a different view here with Iran being a bigger risk factor for both the oil market and equities. Taking that into consideration, they argue that the dollar may yet benefit from any material escalation in the current rhetoric:”Middle East geopolitical uncertainty will be a key focus ahead, with Polymarket odds of a US military strike against Iran (by end June) rising sharply this week to 69%. We outline scenarios: the market impact of military action would depend upon the duration of any conflict. For G10 FX, the likely configuration of higher oil prices and lower global equities, would be broadly positive for USD especially vs. NZD, AUD & SEK, in contrast to the price action when both oil and equities rise. Our preferred hedge for Iran escalation would be short NZD/USD, given its risk beta as well as New Zealand’s dependence upon energy imports.”Well, it’s certainly an interesting proposition with NZD/USD continuing to keep in a technical cage around 0.5900 to 0.6075 since rising in late January. The latest meandering in the past week is testing the floor of that range, which looks to be holding with the currency pair catching a light bounce today to 0.5965 currently.A firm break away from this range will free up room towards the 200-day moving average next around 0.5875 currently. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The dollar’s recent volatility highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions and policy shifts on currency stability. With the Supreme Court’s decision against Trump’s tariffs, traders need to reassess their positions. The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran could lead to further fluctuations in the dollar’s value, especially if they escalate. This uncertainty might push traders to look for safe-haven assets, impacting commodities like gold or even cryptocurrencies. Keep an eye on key support and resistance levels for the dollar, as a break below recent lows could signal a more significant downturn. Conversely, if geopolitical tensions ease, we might see a rebound. Watch for any news from the Middle East that could trigger swift market reactions, particularly in the forex space where volatility is expected to remain high in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the dollar’s support levels closely; a break could lead to increased volatility and shifts toward safe-haven assets.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The resulting policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on the greenback, even though nothing has actually changed.Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer has stated that the tariff deals remain in place and they will be honoured. Moreover, the new levies actually reduce the effective average tariff rate.The dollar recouped most of the losses yesterday, but it might remain rangebound for now as traders await new catalysts and further developments. The real risks remain a potential US-Iran military escalation which could boost the greenback on severe risk-off mood or a hawkish repricing on stronger US data which would have a positive effect on the USD. Fed’s Waller placed a great deal on next week’s NFP report. AUD:On the AUD side, the bullish momentum from the hawkish repricing of last month seems to have waned now. The currency remains supported on a hawkish central bank and strong data, but we will likely need stronger reasons to price in more rate hikes at this point. Tomorrow, we get the monthly Australian CPI report. We will likely need very hot data to give the AUD another boost as traders would bring forward expectations for the next rate hike. Last week, the currency failed to sustain a rally on another strong jobs report which might have been a signal that we reached the peak in the hawkish repricing, and a major pullback could be in the cards. A soft CPI report could trigger such a correction.As a reminder, the RBA hiked the Cash Rate by 25 bps at the last meeting bringing it back to 3.85%. The central bank delivered a hawkish surprise as it signalled two more rate hikes by year-end compared to just one expected by the market at the time. AUDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD broke below the first upward trendline which could be a signal of further downside to follow. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the next trendline to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the drop into the major trendline around the 0.67 handle.AUDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has been consolidating between the 0.7090 resistance and the 0.7027 level. The market participants will likely continue to play the range until we get a breakout on either side. AUDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the sellers will likely pile in around the resistance and on a break below the support, while the buyers will step in around the support and increase the bullish bets on a break above the resistance. The red lines define average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the weekly US ADP jobs data. Tomorrow, we have the monthly Australian CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI report. Watch out for US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The US dollar’s recent weakness signals potential volatility ahead, and here’s why that matters: The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs has thrown a wrench into the dollar’s stability. While the immediate impact seems minimal, the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy could lead to increased market volatility. Traders should be cautious, as this could affect not just the dollar but also correlated markets like commodities and equities. If traders are holding long positions in USD, they might want to reassess their risk exposure, especially if the dollar continues to weaken against major currencies. Look for key technical levels around recent support and resistance points. If the dollar index breaks below a significant support level, it could trigger further selling pressure. On the flip side, if the market finds a reason to rally the dollar, it could create a short squeeze. Keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators and geopolitical developments that could further influence sentiment. The next few weeks could be crucial for positioning in both forex and related asset classes. 📮 Takeaway Watch for the dollar index’s support levels; a break could lead to increased volatility across forex and commodity markets.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe Nasdaq continues to consolidate near monthly lows as weakness in software stocks has been putting a lid on the index. There’s also been lots of uncertainty on the macro and geopolitical side that’s been keeping the market on edge. The risks we had were the US Supreme Court decision on tariffs, the Fed interest rates path and the potential US-Iran military escalation. The US Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on Friday which triggered a short-term rally in the Nasdaq. Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer has stated that the tariff deals remain in place and they will be honoured. The new levies reduce the effective average tariff rate, which could be a positive at the margin. In terms of Fed interest rates path, the market is still pricing 57 bps of easing by year-end which could be at risk of a hawkish repricing on further improvement in the US labour market data. In fact, Fed’s Waller yesterday mentioned that he might want to hold rates steady if we see a repeat of the strong January’s NFP report. Therefore, next Friday is going to be key as good data could weigh on the market in the short-term on a hawkish repricing. Lastly, we have the US-Iran military escalation risk. This is one of the biggest risks because if a military conflict were to break out, we would see oil prices skyrocket. This would be a negative shock for the global economy and lead to stagflation risks. The first reaction in the markets would be strong risk aversion. We would highly likely see a huge selloff in the stock market as future growth expectations would turn negative.To sum up, there are lots of downside risks at the moment with little reasons for a rally into new all-time highs. The macro backdrop is still positive given the easing inflation and improving labour market, but that could change quickly, so traders will need to be careful.NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see the Nasdaq has been trading in a wide range since October of last year. Such long consolidations generally lead to big trending moves once the price breaks out. Until then, the market participants will continue to play the range. NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price broke above the downward trendline recently which could be a signal of more upside to come. For now, the price got stuck in a tight range between the 24,700 support and the 25,130 resistance. A break below the support will likely take us back to February lows, while an upside breakout should lead to a rally to the 25,400 level next.NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will keep on stepping in around the support and increase the bullish bets on a break above the resistance, while the sellers will continue to pile in around the resistance and increase the bearish bets on a break below the support. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the weekly US ADP jobs data. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI report. Also, watch out for US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight SOL’s current price of $76.77 is a critical juncture for traders, especially with the Nasdaq’s struggles. The ongoing consolidation near monthly lows in the Nasdaq, driven by weakness in software stocks, suggests a broader risk-off sentiment that could spill over into crypto markets. If SOL can hold above $75, it may attract buyers looking for a rebound, but a drop below this level could trigger further selling pressure. Traders should keep an eye on the correlation between SOL and Nasdaq movements, as a continued downturn in tech stocks could weigh on SOL’s performance. On the flip side, if macro uncertainties ease, SOL could benefit from a risk-on environment, especially if it breaks above recent resistance levels. Watch for key technical indicators like RSI and MACD for potential buy signals. Immediate focus should be on the $75 support level and the Nasdaq’s performance in the coming days, as these will be crucial for SOL’s next move. 📮 Takeaway Monitor SOL’s support at $75 and Nasdaq trends; a break below could signal further downside, while a rebound may attract buyers.

The OLB Group, Inc. ($OLB) — a fintech company providing payment processing and merchant services solutions — just handed traders one of the cleaner technical signals we’ve seen on this chart in some time. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight OLB’s recent technical signal could be a game changer for traders looking at fintech stocks. With SOL currently at $77.89, this could indicate a broader bullish sentiment in the fintech sector, especially if OLB’s price action aligns with SOL’s upward momentum. Traders should keep an eye on the volume and price patterns; a breakout above recent resistance levels could trigger further buying interest. But here’s the flip side: if SOL starts to falter, OLB might follow suit, so it’s crucial to monitor SOL’s performance closely. Watch for any significant news or earnings reports that could impact market sentiment in the fintech space, as these could create volatility in OLB’s price action. Immediate focus should be on the next few trading sessions to see if OLB can maintain its bullish trajectory or if it gets pulled back by broader market trends. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on SOL’s performance at $77.89; a breakout could signal further bullish moves for OLB, but watch for potential pullbacks.

NIO has put together a strong move off its recent lows this month, gaining more than 18% over the course of just a few trading days. From a technicals perspective, this has been a clean and steady push higher, with price consistently marching upward rather than spiking erratically. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight NIO’s 18% surge this month signals strong bullish momentum, and here’s why that matters: For traders, this consistent upward movement suggests a solid trend rather than a fleeting spike, which can be a key indicator for swing trading strategies. The clean push higher indicates strong buying interest, potentially attracting more retail and institutional investors. If NIO can maintain this momentum, it could challenge previous resistance levels, making it a prime candidate for breakout trades. However, keep an eye on the broader market sentiment, especially in tech stocks, as any downturn could impact NIO’s trajectory. On the flip side, a pullback could present a buying opportunity if it holds above key support levels. Watch for any signs of exhaustion in buying pressure, as that could signal a reversal. For now, traders should monitor the $1,850 level closely; a hold above this could confirm continued bullishness, while a drop below might trigger profit-taking or stop-losses. 📮 Takeaway Watch for NIO to hold above $1,850; a sustained move here could lead to further gains, while a drop could signal a reversal.