FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold got a boost on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The initial reaction saw gold coming under pressure but eventually the market turned around, and we reached a new monthly high as Trump imposed new tariffs under a different law. Overall, not much has changed on the tariff policy, these new developments just created some uncertainty in the short-term. USTR Greer has stated that the tariff deals remain in place and they will be honoured. Moreover, the new levies actually reduce the effective average tariff rate, so on net, it could be a positive. The market might remain supported amid the uncertainty, but I don’t think the big picture has changed much. I would expect the gains to be pared back and the market to continue to consolidate. The real risks remain a potential US-Iran military escalation which could take gold prices to new highs or a hawkish repricing on stronger US data which would have a negative effect on the market. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold extended into a new monthly high after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs imposed on Liberation Day, and Trump re-imposed new tariffs under a different law. The price is still trading between the all-time high and the trendline, so there’s not much we can glean from this timeframe. We need to zoom in to see some more details.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke above the strong resistance zone around the 5100 level. If we get a retest of the resistance now turned support, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the support to pile back in for a drop into the major upward trendline next. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a couple of trendlines that could act as support for the buyers as long as the current bullish momentum holds. We can expect the buyers to lean on the trendlines with a defined risk below them to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for downside breaks to target new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the weekly US ADP jobs data. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI report. Also, keep watching out for US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Gold’s recent surge highlights the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical shifts and tariff changes. The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs initially pressured gold, but the subsequent imposition of new tariffs under a different law has reignited buying interest. This volatility underscores gold’s role as a safe haven amid uncertainty. Traders should note that reaching a new monthly high suggests bullish momentum, but the market remains reactive to further developments in U.S. trade policy. Watch for key resistance levels around previous highs, as breaking through these could attract more buyers. Conversely, any signs of easing tensions or a stronger dollar could reverse this trend, so keeping an eye on the dollar index and geopolitical news is crucial. In the broader context, this could ripple through related assets like silver and mining stocks, which often move in tandem with gold. If gold maintains its upward trajectory, expect increased interest from both retail and institutional investors, especially if the market perceives ongoing trade disputes as a long-term concern. 📮 Takeaway Monitor gold’s resistance levels closely; a sustained move above recent highs could signal further bullish momentum amid ongoing trade tensions.

Prior 87.6Current conditions 86.7 vs 86.3 expectedPrior 85.7Expectations 90.5 vs 90.3 expectedPrior 89.5; revised to 89.6The headline reading is a six-month high as German business morale picks up in the early stages of the new year. That comes alongside an improvement in both the current conditions and expectations/outlook index. The recent optimistic recovery in the German industry is definitely helping to provide a lift to broader sentiment.So far, it’s all been quite good news out of the euro area to start the year. And this sort of reading exemplifies the optimistic turn we’re seeing in the German economy especially. Stagflation fears had been a real concern at some point last year but perhaps there is the potential for things to turn around now.It’s still a little early but if the industrial sector can keep it up, there’s scope for Germany to really get out of the mud this year. But as seen with the recent trade debacle since Friday, US tariffs will prove to be a curveball on how things might progress in the months ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight German business morale is on the rise, and here’s why that matters: The latest data shows a headline reading of 86.7, marking a six-month high, which is a positive signal for traders. Improved business sentiment can lead to increased investment and spending, potentially boosting the Euro. This is particularly relevant as the Eurozone grapples with economic recovery post-pandemic. Traders should keep an eye on correlated assets like EUR/USD, as a sustained rise in business morale could strengthen the Euro against the dollar. However, it’s worth noting that while current conditions improved, expectations are still below the prior levels, indicating that optimism might be cautious. If the expectations index doesn’t catch up, we could see volatility in the Euro as traders reassess their positions. Watch for key levels around 1.10 in EUR/USD; a break above could signal further bullish momentum. Keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators that could either reinforce or challenge this positive sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Monitor EUR/USD closely; a sustained move above 1.10 could indicate bullish momentum driven by rising German business morale.

It will be a light week in terms of scheduled economic events for the FX market. On Monday, the U.S. will release factory orders m/m and on Tuesday attention will be on the U.K.’s Monetary Policy Report hearings and the U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed manufacturing figures. Wednesday will bring inflation data from Australia while Thursday the focus will be the U.S. unemployment claims. Finally, on Friday, Japan will publish Tokyo core CPI y/y, Canada will release GDP m/m, and the U.S. will get the PPI m/m. Throughout the week, several FOMC members are also expected to deliver remarks. In the U.S., the consensus for Conference Board consumer confidence is 87.6, up from 84.5 previously. In the last print, the confidence fell to a post-pandemic low, driven by softer labor market signals, elevated living costs and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. The most significant factor, however, was a deterioration in job perceptions. While this shift does not point to an outright pullback in spending, it suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, especially lower-income households, Wells Fargo analysts said. A modest improvement is likely for this week’s release, supported by a better-than-expected jobs report and softer inflation readings. However, concerns about tariffs, global political risks and affordability pressures remain unresolved and will impact household sentiment in the near term. In Australia, the consensus is for CPI y/y to ease from 3.8% to 3.7%. With trimmed mean CPI expected to hold at 3.3%, in line with consensus, a modest upside surprise is unlikely to materially shift the near-term RBA outlook. January is typically a softer month for prices. While headline inflation is expected to see only a monthly rise, seasonal adjustments suggest a firmer underlying pace. Even so, the annual rate is likely to edge lower, reflecting a slower start to the year compared with last January. Food prices are expected to remain a key source of pressure, driven by seasonal increases in fresh produce and non-alcoholic beverages. Health costs should also contribute to inflation, but electricity prices are likely to be the main driver, as the impact of cost-of-living rebates will fade and prices will revert to older levels. These pressures are expected to be partly offset by price declines for holiday travel and accommodation, fuel, clothing and communications, according to Westpac analysts. The market expects a rate hike in May, taking the cash rate to 4.10%, though risks appear skewed to the downside. Inflation pressures are increasingly concentrated in regulated and policy-driven components rather than market-based pricing, which limits the need for further action from the RBA. This week everyone will also pay close attention to the Tokyo CPI for February as it can give us clues about Japan’s nationwide inflation trends. The consensus is for the y/y core CPI figure to drop from 2.0% to 1.7%. Underlying inflation is still above the BoJ’s desired target, but the softer momentum suggests there isn’t an urgent need to hike rates so the Bank might wait for clear evidence of sustained price pressures. The upcoming Shunto wage negotiations and the April CPI data will be key indicators for the policy outlook. In Canada, the consensus for GDP m/m is 0.1% versus 0.0% previously. GDP growth appears to have stalled in Q4 with output expected to be flat following a strong Q3. Much of the weakness stemmed from temporary disruptions in October and November, while December data suggest some stabilization, supported by a rebound in manufacturing and wholesale activity as auto production recovered, according to RBC analysts. That said, underlying momentum remains mixed. Manufacturing continues to face pressure from U.S. tariffs, housing activity softened toward year-end and retail sales showed limited growth. Overall, the quarter appears soft but broadly in line with the Bank of Canada’s expectations. In the U.S. the consensus for the core PPI m/m is 0.3% vs. 0.7% prior and for the PPI m/m is 0.3% vs. 0.5% previously. Softer than expected PPI could reinforce a disinflation narrative, while a stronger print could delay expectations of future Fed rate cuts. Despite the hawkish tone at the January FOMC meeting the market continues to price in two rate cuts until the end of the year. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight With a light economic calendar this week, traders should focus on the U.S. factory orders and consumer confidence data. Factory orders can provide insights into manufacturing health, which is crucial for the dollar’s strength. If the numbers come in stronger than expected, we might see a bullish reaction in USD pairs, especially against the EUR and GBP. Conversely, weak data could lead to a bearish sentiment, impacting risk assets and potentially pushing traders towards safe havens like the JPY. Keep an eye on the technical levels around key support and resistance for these pairs, particularly if the consumer confidence index shows a significant deviation from forecasts. This could set the tone for the rest of the month as traders position themselves ahead of more impactful economic releases later on. Also, watch for any comments from the U.K.’s Monetary Policy Report hearings, as they could influence GBP volatility. The market’s reaction to these events could create opportunities for day traders looking to capitalize on short-term movements. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the U.S. factory orders and consumer confidence data this week; strong results could boost USD, affecting EUR/USD and GBP/USD significantly.

Prior +1.2%HICP +1.0% vs +1.0% y/y prelimPrior +1.2%Slight delay in the release by the source. Looking at the details, services inflation is the one that is keeping higher at 2.5% last month. Meanwhile, goods price inflation is actually recording a -0.2% annual change. Overall, that leaves core annual inflation at 1.7% in Italy to start the year. And that’s sort of the spot that the ECB wants to get inflation to as a whole for the region. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Core inflation’s mixed signals are crucial for traders navigating interest rate expectations right now. With services inflation holding at 2.5% while goods prices dipped 0.2%, the Fed’s next move could hinge on these dynamics. If services inflation continues to rise, it could pressure the Fed to maintain or even raise rates, impacting both forex and crypto markets. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming FOMC meeting for potential shifts in policy. A sustained core inflation above 2% could signal a tightening cycle, affecting risk assets like equities and cryptocurrencies. Watch for any shifts in sentiment around the 2% inflation target, as this could lead to volatility across markets, especially if traders react to perceived hawkishness from the Fed. 📮 Takeaway Monitor core inflation trends closely; a sustained rise above 2% could trigger significant market volatility, particularly in forex and crypto assets.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on the greenback because on net, not much has changed. Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer has stated that the tariff deals remain in place and they will be honoured. Moreover, the new levies actually reduce the effective average tariff rate, so it could be a positive. The dollar might stay on the backfoot for now amid the uncertainty, but I don’t think the big picture has changed much. The real risks remain a potential US-Iran military escalation which could boost the greenback on severe risk-off mood or a hawkish repricing on stronger US data which would have a positive effect on the USD.EUR:On the EUR side, nothing has changed. As a reminder, the ECB held interest rates steady as widely expected at the last meeting and kept the same data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting guidance. The policymakers have eased the rhetoric on the euro recently after the currency dropped below the 1.20 level against the dollar. The focus remains on inflation as the central bank has repeatedly stated that it won’t respond to small or short-term deviations from the 2% target. The data for now has been positive with economic activity picking up and core inflation hovering just a bit above target.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD fell into a new monthly low last week but eventually bounced back following the US Supreme Court decision. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price broke above the downward trendline that was defining the bearish momentum. The price is now retesting the broken trendline where we have also a support zone around the 1.1805 level. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 1.1927 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 1.17 handle next.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce around the support, while the sellers will look for a break lower. The red line define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the weekly US ADP jobs data. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the German CPI and the US PPI data. Also, keep watching out for US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The US Dollar’s recent weakness signals a shift in market sentiment, and here’s why that matters: The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs introduces a layer of policy uncertainty that traders need to navigate. While the immediate impact seems minimal—given that new tariffs are still in place under different legislation—the broader implications could lead to volatility in the forex market. Traders should keep an eye on the USD’s performance against major currencies, particularly the Euro and Yen, as any further shifts in trade policy could amplify this weakness. If the Dollar continues to falter, it could trigger a bullish sentiment in commodities like gold, which often moves inversely to the Dollar. On the flip side, this could present a buying opportunity for those looking to short the Dollar, especially if it breaks below key support levels. Watch for the USD to test its recent lows; a decisive break could lead to further declines. Keep an eye on upcoming economic data releases that might influence the Fed’s stance, as any dovish signals could exacerbate the Dollar’s decline. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the USD closely; a break below key support levels could trigger further weakness, impacting related assets like gold and major currency pairs.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US Dollar weakened across the board on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The policy uncertainty is what is likely to have weighed on the greenback because on net, not much has changed. Trump has already imposed new tariffs under a different law and USTR Greer has stated that the tariff deals remain in place and they will be honoured. Moreover, the new levies actually reduce the effective average tariff rate, so it could be a positive. The dollar might stay on the backfoot for now amid the uncertainty, but I don’t think the big picture has changed much. The real risks remain a potential US-Iran military escalation which could boost the greenback on severe risk-off mood or a hawkish repricing on stronger US data which would have a positive effect on the USD.GBP:On the GBP side, the probabilities for a rate cut in March increased to 75% following the much weaker than expected UK labour market report on Tuesday and mostly benign UK CPI data on Wednesday. The pound eventually fell to a new monthly low before bouncing following the US Supreme Court decision. As a reminder, the BoE surprised with a dovish hold at the last meeting as 4 members dissented for a rate cut versus 2 expected. Moreover, they changed the guidance in the statement from “the bank rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path” to “the bank rate is likely to be reduced further”. GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD broke below the major trendline and bounced back to retest it. The sellers will likely step in around the broken trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to extend the rebound into the downward trendline where the sellers will look for another short opportunity. GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the sellers will likely continue to step in around the broken trendline, while the buyers will look for an upside break to extend the gains into the downward trendline. GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the weekly US ADP jobs data. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PPI data. Also, keep watching out for US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The US Dollar’s recent weakness signals a shift in market sentiment, and here’s why that matters: The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs introduces a layer of policy uncertainty that traders need to navigate. While the immediate impact on the dollar might seem minor, it reflects broader concerns about trade policies and their implications for inflation and economic growth. If traders perceive this as a sign of instability, we could see further dollar depreciation, especially against currencies like the Euro and Yen, which are already benefiting from a more stable economic outlook. Look for key support levels in the USD against major pairs; if the dollar breaks below recent lows, it could trigger a wave of selling. Additionally, keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators, particularly inflation data, as they could further influence dollar strength or weakness. The flip side is that if the market finds a way to stabilize around these tariff changes, we might see a rebound in the dollar, but that seems less likely given current sentiment. Watch for volatility in the forex markets as traders react to this evolving narrative. 📮 Takeaway Monitor USD support levels closely; a break below recent lows could lead to increased selling pressure, especially against the Euro and Yen.

At the balance and at first glance, the latest developments should see a greater reduction in the overall average tariffs rate in the US. If so, that should eventually have a negative impact on price pressures and helps with the narrative of softening inflation and more Fed rate cuts. But again, it’s a lot to take in as the news hit on Friday and with there still being a lot of uncertainty up in the air.Trump’s reciprocal tariffs under the IEEPA is now deemed illegal. And the US customs will stop collecting said levies starting after midnight later today. The US president has already proceeded with his next step in invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. That sees a blanket 15% tariff being applied for the next 150 days.While some countries are definitely benefiting from the change, it’s not equal for everyone. And at the end of it all, this seems like a tactic to stall for time as Trump pursues trade investigations under Section 301 next. It’s a more surgical procedure to impose tariffs and it remains to be seen how it will all work out in the end.Wall Street cheered on the Supreme Court decision on Friday but US futures are looking more cautious today. S&P 500 futures may be off earlier lows but are still down 0.2% currently. Tech shares are lagging with Nasdaq futures down 0.3% while Dow futures are also down 0.2% for now.It’s still early in the day and market players have a lot to digest in making sense of the latest tariffs shift above.And it’s not just that mostly. The immediate response by Trump also signals that he is not going to easily let this go to pass. Taking that into consideration, it could mean more erratic and uncertain policy maneuvers that even we might not be able to think of at this time.The logical path seems to be the one laid out above as mentioned. But if we all know Trump and we definitely do by now, it is that sometimes the logical path is not always the preset course of action. So, there might still be some curveballs yet to deal with and that is keeping markets on edge in trying to make sense of the situation.The easy take is that this will all still culminate in a more bearish outlook for the dollar, one way or another. Poor policy management and erratic trade policy setting. That’s never a good thing. And if not, lower tariffs means less threat to the inflation outlook. So, that helps with a envisaging lower price pressures in the US to allow for more rate cuts. Either way, a dollar negative.And if the consensus leans towards a stronger likelihood of the Fed cutting rates, that should be a risk positive at the end of it all. But right now, we’re still in the eye of the storm. So, it is understandable for the market reaction to be one that leans more cautiously. We’ll have to see what Trump might have up his sleeve next. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The potential reduction in average tariffs in the US could reshape inflation expectations and Fed policy. If tariffs decrease, it might ease price pressures, which traders are keenly watching as it could lead to a more dovish stance from the Fed. This aligns with the current narrative of softening inflation, making it crucial for traders to monitor economic indicators like CPI and PPI closely. A shift in Fed policy could influence not just equities but also forex pairs, particularly USD-based ones. If the dollar weakens due to rate cuts, commodities priced in USD, like gold, could see upward momentum. However, there’s a flip side: if the market overreacts to tariff news, it could lead to volatility. Traders should keep an eye on key levels, especially around major economic releases. Watch for any significant moves in the dollar index and how it correlates with commodity prices in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on tariff developments and their impact on inflation; monitor the dollar index and commodities for potential trading opportunities.

Where? In tech relative to SPY on a daily basis, just daily for now. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Tech stocks are showing a divergence from SPY on a daily basis, and here’s why that matters: the tech sector’s performance can often lead broader market trends. If tech continues to outperform, it could signal a rotation into growth stocks, which might attract more institutional money. Conversely, if tech falters, it could drag down the overall market, especially if SPY remains stagnant. Traders should keep an eye on key tech indicators like the NASDAQ’s performance relative to SPY, as this could influence their trading strategies. Look for specific levels to watch: if tech stocks break above recent highs, it could indicate a strong bullish trend, while a drop below recent support levels might trigger sell-offs across the board. The real story is whether this divergence is a temporary blip or a sign of a more significant market shift. Keep your eyes peeled for earnings reports and economic data that could impact tech sentiment, as these will be crucial in shaping the next moves. 📮 Takeaway Watch for tech stocks to either break recent highs or fall below support levels; this divergence from SPY could dictate broader market trends.

New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ) above forecasts (0.6%) in 4Q: Actual (0.9%) 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight New Zealand’s retail sales just beat expectations, and here’s why that matters: A 0.9% increase in retail sales for Q4, surpassing the forecast of 0.6%, signals stronger consumer spending and economic resilience. This uptick could influence the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy decisions, potentially leading to tighter interest rates if consumer confidence continues to rise. Traders should keep an eye on the NZD, as a stronger economy often correlates with a bullish outlook for the currency. If the NZD/USD breaks above key resistance levels, it could trigger further buying from both retail and institutional traders. But don’t ignore the flip side: if inflation pressures mount alongside this growth, the RBNZ might face a tricky balancing act. A sudden shift in policy could lead to volatility in the forex markets, particularly affecting pairs like NZD/JPY and NZD/AUD. Watch for upcoming economic indicators and RBNZ statements for clues on their next moves, especially in the coming weeks as we approach the next policy meeting. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the NZD/USD for potential breakouts above resistance levels, especially in light of upcoming RBNZ policy signals.