Oil opened slightly lower in early trade as markets balanced escalating Iran–US tensions against renewed nuclear talks and rising tariff concerns that threaten global demand.Summary:Oil opens slightly softer in Sunday evening Globex tradeIran–US conflict risk underpins geopolitical risk premiumFresh nuclear talks scheduled for Thursday temper escalation fearsRising tariff concerns weigh on global growth outlookMarket balancing supply disruption risk vs demand headwindsOil prices opened lower in early Sunday evening trade on Globex, as traders weighed mounting geopolitical risks against renewed concerns over global growth.On the supportive side, tensions between the United States and Iran continue to underpin a geopolitical premium in crude. Reports that President Donald Trump is considering potential military options against Iran, alongside warnings that diplomacy may be running out of time, have kept the market alert to the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East. Any direct confrontation involving Iranian energy infrastructure, shipping lanes, or regional proxies would likely have immediate implications for flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil exports.However, those upside risks are being partly offset by signs that diplomacy is not yet exhausted. US and Iranian negotiators are expected to meet in Geneva later this week, raising the prospect, however fragile, of a negotiated framework that could reduce immediate escalation risk. Even incremental progress toward a nuclear understanding could take some of the geopolitical bid out of crude.At the same time, broader macro headwinds are reasserting themselves. Renewed tariff uncertainty and rising trade tensions risk dampening global growth expectations, particularly in manufacturing-heavy economies. Slower trade flows and weaker industrial activity would translate into softer oil demand projections, limiting upside momentum.The result is a market caught between competing narratives: a tightening geopolitical backdrop that supports prices versus mounting concerns that trade friction and policy uncertainty could curb demand growth. Early Globex price action reflects that balance, with traders reluctant to build aggressive positions ahead of Thursday’s diplomatic milestone. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Oil’s slight dip reflects a tug-of-war between geopolitical tensions and potential diplomatic resolutions. The ongoing Iran-US tensions are keeping a risk premium in the market, which is crucial for traders to watch. With fresh nuclear talks on the horizon, there’s a chance for volatility as traders react to any news. If these talks yield positive outcomes, we could see a rebound in oil prices, but if tensions escalate, expect a spike in prices as fear takes hold. Tariff concerns are another layer to this, as they could dampen global demand, impacting oil consumption. Traders should keep an eye on key support and resistance levels, particularly if prices approach recent highs or lows. The interplay between these factors could create trading opportunities, especially for those using short-term strategies. Watch for the outcome of the nuclear talks on Thursday; that could be a game-changer. Also, keep an eye on how tariff news develops, as that could shift market sentiment quickly. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the outcome of Thursday’s nuclear talks and tariff developments, as they could significantly impact oil prices and trading strategies.

The USD is lower in early Asia trade. Its still VERY early, with thin liquidity, thinner than usual, due to the Japanese marekts being closed today for holiday. China is back, though, returning from their week-long Spring break / Lunar New Year holiday. My bad, nope. Not until tomorrow.USD down.-The Supreme Court ruling striking down much of President Donald Trump’s prior tariff regime marks a significant moment in the evolving battle over executive trade powers. The Court reportedly found that the administration had exceeded its statutory authority in imposing broad-based tariffs under emergency provisions, ruling that the legal justification used to implement sweeping duties did not align with congressional intent. The decision effectively invalidated large portions of last year’s tariff structure, creating immediate uncertainty for businesses that had already adjusted supply chains and pricing models around the levies.The ruling does not eliminate the president’s ability to impose tariffs altogether. Instead, it narrows the scope under which emergency or national-security justifications can be used without explicit congressional backing. Legal analysts note that the Court’s reasoning reinforces constitutional limits on executive authority in trade matters, potentially setting a precedent that constrains future administrations.In response, Trump moved quickly to announce a new 15% tariff framework, signalling that his trade agenda remains firmly intact despite the judicial setback. While details of the revised structure are still emerging, the administration is expected to rely on alternative statutory pathways that may be more narrowly tailored or procedurally robust. The 15% rate appears designed to maintain pressure on trading partners while attempting to withstand legal scrutiny.For markets, the episode underscores the volatility inherent in trade policy. Companies face renewed uncertainty over input costs, cross-border investment decisions, and supply-chain stability. Consumers may ultimately bear part of the burden through higher import prices, while policymakers must weigh the inflationary implications. The Supreme Court’s intervention clarifies legal boundaries, but the rapid reimposition of tariffs suggests that trade tensions, and their economic consequences, remain far from resolved.Tariff Karen. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The USD’s dip in early Asia trade signals potential volatility ahead, especially with Japan’s markets closed and liquidity thin. Traders should keep an eye on how this affects major pairs like USD/JPY and USD/CNY. With Japan out, any movement in the USD could lead to exaggerated price swings. The absence of Japanese trading could create an opportunity for day traders to capitalize on sudden shifts. Watch for any news from China as they return, which could further influence market sentiment. If the USD continues to weaken, it might test key support levels that could trigger stop-loss orders, leading to cascading effects across correlated assets like commodities and equities. So, while the USD is down now, the real story is how traders react once Japan returns to the market and liquidity normalizes. 📮 Takeaway Monitor USD/JPY closely; if it breaks below key support levels, expect increased volatility and potential trading opportunities.

Summary:FT reports Iran agreed €500m arms deal with Russia in DecemberContract covers 500 Verba MANPADS launchers and 2,500 9M336 missilesDeliveries scheduled in tranches from 2027 to 2029Deal negotiated between Rosoboronexport and Iran’s defence ministry representativeTehran formally requested systems in JulyEarlier:NYT: Trump weighs limited Iran strikes as nuclear deal talks continue. In coming days.Update: US-Iran nuclear talks set for Thursday as Trump weighs military optionIran has reportedly agreed to a €500 million arms deal with Russia to purchase thousands of advanced shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles, according to a report by the Financial Times.Citing leaked Russian documents and individuals familiar with the matter, the FT said the agreement was signed in Moscow in December. The contract commits Russia to supply 500 man-portable air defence system (MANPADS) launch units of the Verba type, along with 2,500 associated 9M336 missiles, over a three-year delivery schedule running from 2027 through 2029.The systems are designed to target aircraft, helicopters and potentially drones at relatively low altitudes, enhancing short-range air defence capabilities. If completed, the deal would represent a significant upgrade to Iran’s mobile air-defence inventory at a time of heightened regional tension.According to the report, the negotiations were conducted between Rosoboronexport and the Moscow-based representative of Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL). Tehran is said to have formally requested the equipment last July, with documentation reviewed by the FT outlining the scale and timeline of the proposed acquisition.The timing is notable. In June last year, US forces conducted strikes on three of Iran’s principal nuclear facilities amid escalating hostilities tied to the broader Israel-Iran confrontation. President Donald Trump subsequently stated that key nuclear infrastructure had been destroyed in those operations.While the long-dated delivery schedule suggests no immediate battlefield shift, the agreement — if verified — underscores continued deepening defence cooperation between Moscow and Tehran. It also signals Iran’s intent to bolster air defence resilience in anticipation of potential future military pressure.Neither government has publicly confirmed the reported transaction. However, the prospect of expanded Russian arms transfers to Iran is likely to draw scrutiny from Western capitals and could add another layer of complexity to already strained geopolitical dynamics.2027-2029 delivery schedule won’t impact Trump current planning. Maybe speed it up 😉 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Iran’s €500m arms deal with Russia is a game-changer for geopolitical tensions and market dynamics. The agreement for 500 Verba MANPADS and 2,500 missiles, set for delivery from 2027 to 2029, signals a deepening military collaboration between Tehran and Moscow. This could escalate tensions in the Middle East, impacting oil prices and regional security. Traders should keep an eye on crude oil futures, as any military escalation could lead to supply disruptions, pushing prices higher. Additionally, the deal’s timing coincides with ongoing nuclear negotiations, which adds another layer of uncertainty. If talks falter, expect increased volatility in energy markets and possibly in defense stocks related to the arms industry. On the flip side, while mainstream coverage focuses on immediate geopolitical risks, the long-term implications of this deal could reshape alliances in the region, leading to shifts in market sentiment. Watch for reactions from Western powers, as sanctions or military responses could further influence market conditions. For now, keep an eye on oil prices and geopolitical headlines as key indicators of market movement. 📮 Takeaway Monitor crude oil prices closely; any escalation in tensions from this arms deal could drive prices significantly higher in the coming months.

The news from Friday was of Trump’s tariffs found illegal:investingLive Americas market news wrap: Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffsTrump later replaced them with MOAR tariffs:That didn’t take long: Trump increases global tariff to 15% from 10% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Trump’s tariff hike to 15% is a game-changer for traders: here’s why. Tariffs can significantly impact market sentiment and trade flows, especially in sectors like commodities and manufacturing. With the Supreme Court ruling against the previous tariffs, the market might have expected a more stable trade environment. However, Trump’s quick pivot to increase tariffs could lead to heightened volatility in related assets. Traders should keep an eye on commodity prices, particularly steel and aluminum, which often react sharply to tariff changes. If these tariffs lead to increased production costs, we might see a ripple effect across various sectors, potentially impacting inflation metrics. On the flip side, this move could also strengthen the dollar as investors seek safe havens amid trade uncertainties. Watch for key resistance levels in the dollar index, particularly if it approaches recent highs. For those trading equities, sectors like industrials and materials will be crucial to monitor as they may face headwinds from increased costs. Keep an eye on the next earnings reports for these sectors to gauge the impact of tariffs on profitability. 📮 Takeaway Watch for commodity price reactions and dollar strength as Trump’s tariff increase could create significant market volatility in the coming weeks.

The USD is heavy in Asia trade on the new tariff debacle. Japan is closed today for a holiday. China is NOT back from its holiday today. I thought they were but I’ll have to wait until Tuesday, February 24, 2026.HK shares are up, Hang Seng +1.4% or so. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The USD’s weakness in Asia signals potential volatility ahead, especially with tariffs looming. With Japan closed and China still on holiday, the market’s reaction could be muted, but the Hang Seng’s 1.4% rise suggests bullish sentiment in Hong Kong. Traders should keep an eye on how the USD performs against the JPY and CNY once these markets reopen. If the tariff situation escalates, we could see a flight to safe-haven assets like gold or the JPY. Watch for key levels in USD/JPY; a break below recent support could trigger further selling pressure. Additionally, monitor the Hang Seng for any signs of reversal as it approaches resistance levels, which could impact broader Asian markets once China returns to trading. The real story is how these tariffs could reshape trade flows and investor sentiment, so be prepared for sudden moves in both forex and equities as the situation develops. 📮 Takeaway Watch the USD/JPY for a potential breakdown below support, which could signal increased volatility in the forex market as tariffs escalate.

Bitcoin. Not just this though, ETH down 4.5% also, whole crypto complex getting hit. Daily chart looks headed back to the lows: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Ethereum’s recent 4.5% drop to $1,914.09 signals potential bearish momentum across the crypto market. With Bitcoin also under pressure, traders should be wary of a broader sell-off that could push ETH back to recent lows. The daily chart suggests a lack of buying support, which could trigger further declines if key support levels fail. Watch for $1,850 as a critical threshold; a break below this could accelerate selling pressure. On the flip side, if ETH manages to hold above this level, it might attract bargain hunters looking for a reversal. Keep an eye on Bitcoin’s performance as well, since its movements often dictate the altcoin market’s direction. If Bitcoin continues to falter, expect ETH to follow suit, potentially dragging down related assets like DeFi tokens and NFTs. Traders should monitor trading volume closely; a spike in volume during a downturn could indicate panic selling, while low volume might suggest a lack of conviction in the downtrend. 📮 Takeaway Watch for Ethereum to hold above $1,850; a break below could trigger further selling pressure across the crypto market.

Goldman raised its 2026 Q4 Brent/WTI forecasts to $60/$56 on tighter OECD stocks, while maintaining a 2026 surplus assumption. The bank sees firmer prices in 2027 but flags sanctions relief in Iran/Russia as a key downside risk.Summary:Goldman raises 2026 Q4 Brent/WTI by $6 to $60/$56Assumes no Iran-related supply disruption and still sees a 2026 surplusUpgrade driven by lower-than-expected OECD inventoriesSees 2027 averages at $65/$61Forecasts recovery to $70/$66 by Dec 2027 on firm demand, slower supply growthFlags $5/$8 downside risk to 2026 Q4 if Iran/Russia sanctions relief boosts supplyGoldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for late 2026, citing tighter OECD inventories, while maintaining that the global market is likely to remain in surplus next year absent major geopolitical disruption.The bank lifted its 2026 fourth-quarter Brent forecast by $6 to $60 per barrel, and its WTI forecast by $6 to $56, reflecting lower-than-expected stock levels across OECD economies. Despite the upward revision, Goldman continues to assume no Iran-related supply shock, keeping its broader 2026 balance framework intact.The adjustment suggests that inventory dynamics, rather than a shift in core supply-demand assumptions, are driving the near-term upgrade. Lower OECD stocks imply a smaller cushion against demand surprises or supply interruptions, tightening the price outlook at the margin even within a surplus environment.Looking further out, Goldman expects prices to firm in 2027. The bank projects average Brent/WTI prices of $65/$61 in 2027, before rising toward $70/$66 by December 2027. The expected recovery reflects solid global demand growth alongside a moderation in non-OPEC supply expansion, particularly as US production growth slows and capital discipline remains broadly intact across major producers.However, Goldman flagged meaningful downside risks. Potential sanctions relief involving Iran or Russia could accelerate landed stock builds and unlock incremental supply into the market. In that scenario, the bank estimates downside risk of approximately $5 per barrel for Brent and $8 for WTI relative to its 2026 Q4 forecasts.The note highlights the continued sensitivity of oil markets to geopolitical developments and sanctions policy, even as the underlying supply-demand picture remains broadly balanced. For now, Goldman’s base case assumes no major disruption — but also no rapid easing of sanctions that would materially alter supply trajectories. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Goldman’s upward revision of Brent and WTI forecasts signals a potential shift in market sentiment. Raising the Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $60 and WTI to $56 reflects tighter OECD stocks, which could lead to short-term bullish momentum. However, the bank’s assumption of a surplus in 2026 suggests that traders should remain cautious about longer-term price stability. The mention of sanctions relief in Iran and Russia introduces significant uncertainty; if these sanctions are lifted, we could see a flood of oil into the market, which would counteract any price gains. Traders should monitor the geopolitical landscape closely, especially any developments regarding sanctions, as these could create volatility in the oil markets. For those trading oil, keep an eye on technical levels around $60 for Brent and $56 for WTI. A sustained break above these levels could trigger further buying, while failure to hold could lead to a pullback. Watch for inventory reports and OPEC announcements in the coming months, as these will provide additional context for price movements. 📮 Takeaway Watch Brent at $60 and WTI at $56; geopolitical developments in Iran and Russia could significantly impact prices.