I would have expected the Supreme Court decision to be a negative for gold, as it opens the pathway to a reversal of tariffs and a re-affirmation of the dollar-based system.Instead, the market seems to be taking it as a sign of further turmoil and uncertainty, which is gold bullish. The ongoing worries about a war in Iran are certainly underpinning that belief. Yesterday, Trump said Iran had 10 or “maybe 15” days to make a deal and he later confirmed that there could be a per-emptory strike to force Iran’s hand.On the seasonal side, the Lunar New Year holidays are traditionally the end of a seasonal period of strength for gold but it hasn’t exactly unfolded that way this year. Gold opened the week lower but it’s steadily climbed back and unless it drops $30 late, it will post the highest ever weekly close and only the second one above $5000/oz.For the week ahead, the focus is going to be on tariffs and Iran again. We are expecting Trump to re-impose tariffs via Section 122 but the details of that are unclear, including exemptions like USMCA. He said they will be 10% but the authority grants him to impose up to 15%, which I presume he’s holding back in case he needs to retaliate.As for gold, I wouldn’t celebrate too much about the record high. The key short term level is last week’s high of $5118 and if it can break that, we can start talking about a re-test of the record near $5600.That said, it’s impressive that gold has held so close to the highs despite ample opportunities and reasons for some meaningful profit taking. There is clearly an underlying bid for gold in the market and unless it disappears, it’s tough to be overly bearish here. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Supreme Court’s decision is shaking up expectations, and here’s why that’s crucial for gold traders: Typically, a ruling that could reverse tariffs and strengthen the dollar would weigh on gold prices. However, the market’s reaction suggests a growing fear of instability, pushing gold higher as a safe haven. This shift indicates that traders are prioritizing protection against potential economic fallout over traditional correlations with the dollar. If gold continues to gain traction, watch for resistance levels around recent highs, as a break could signal a stronger bullish trend. Conversely, if the dollar strengthens unexpectedly, it could lead to a sharp correction in gold prices. Keep an eye on broader economic indicators, especially inflation data and geopolitical developments, as they could amplify this volatility. The real story here is that while the dollar might seem stronger, the underlying fear in the market could keep gold in demand. For now, traders should monitor gold’s performance closely, especially if it approaches key technical levels that could trigger further buying or selling pressure. 📮 Takeaway Watch for gold’s reaction around recent highs; a breakout could signal a bullish trend amid rising market uncertainty.

Supreme Court rules against Trump tariffsUS Q4 advance GDP +1.4% vs +3.0% expectedUS December PCE inflation +2.9% vs +2.8% expectedTrump says he will invoke 10% Section 122 global tariffAtlanta Fed GDP now growth estimate for the 1st quarter 3.1%University of Michigan sentiment index 56.6 versus 57.3 estimateManufacturing PMI for February 51.2 vs 52.6 estimateCanada retail sales for December -0.4% versus -0.5% expectedFed’s Logan: There is now more inflation uncertainty due to tariff decisionMarkets:Gold up $87 to $5085WTI crude oil flat at $66.39US 10-year yields up 0.8 bps to 4.08%S&P 500 up 0.5%AUD leads, CAD lagsIt was a news-filled day that started with a big miss on GDP. You could sniff that downside surprise out (and we did) after yesterday’s trade data miss and this morning’s comments from Trump lamenting the drag from the government shutdown. The dollar was choppy afterwards, in part because the lower GDP came with higher PCE inflation numbers, leaving the Fed in a tough predicament that argues for more time on the sidelines.As a result, the July Fed meeting has now fallen below 100% pricing.Late came the tariff decision and the kneejerk reaction saw the US dollar sell off as it reopens the window to firm up the dollar-based system. It also leaves Europe less vulnerable to a trade escalation. The euro rose above 1.1800 but failed to stay there in large part because of great confusion about Trump would do next.We got a sense of that when he announced Section 122 global tariffs of 10%. That statute has never been used before an will invite fresh court challenges. In any case, it’s limited to 150 days and in that time the Trump admin will start other trade investigations that generally take six months. For now, the market is struggling to take it all in and figure out what it means. The Fed’s Logan argued the tariff removal should be dovish but we’re all going to wait and see what comes next.And not just on tariffs but eyes remain on Iran with a $6-7 premium in the oil market around a potential attack. I would bet against it occurring during the Olympics but they end on Sunday so that will change things. Finally, Treasuries are a consensus loser on the fiscal side on the tariff decision as it looks like somewhere around $200b in payments will need to be eventually refunded, though that timelines is uncertain. However that impulse could be blunted if tariffs fall and that opens the window for the FOMC to cut rates. Have a great weekend. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The Supreme Court’s ruling against Trump tariffs could reshape trade dynamics, impacting inflation and growth forecasts. With the US Q4 GDP growth at 1.4%, significantly below the 3.0% expectation, traders should be wary of how this could affect market sentiment. The December PCE inflation rate of 2.9%, slightly above the expected 2.8%, signals persistent inflationary pressures, which could lead to tighter monetary policy. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q1 at 3.1% suggests a rebound, but the mixed signals from consumer sentiment (University of Michigan index at 56.6 vs. 57.3 expected) indicate underlying economic fragility. Traders should keep an eye on how these developments influence the forex market, particularly the USD, as well as commodities that are sensitive to trade policies. Here’s the thing: while the ruling may seem like a win for free trade, it could also lead to increased volatility in related markets. Watch for reactions in sectors like manufacturing and commodities, as they might face headwinds from both inflation and potential tariff changes. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the USD’s response to the Supreme Court ruling and inflation data, especially if the PCE continues to trend above expectations.