The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25%, signalling inflation is returning to target while revising its future rate path slightly higher. Policy remains accommodative for now, but gradual normalisation is expected.Summary:Reserve Bank of New Zealand leaves OCR unchanged at 2.25%.Inflation slightly above 1–3% band at end-2025 but expected back inside target this quarter.Forward OCR track revised higher versus previous projections.Economy in early recovery; labour market stabilising but unemployment elevated.Committee signals policy to remain accommodative “for some time,” with gradual normalisation ahead.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25%, striking a cautiously balanced tone as it navigates an early-stage recovery, above-target inflation and a gradually firming policy outlook.Annual CPI was described as “slightly above” the Monetary Policy Committee’s 1–3% target band at the end of 2025, with food, electricity and council rates cited as key contributors. However, the central bank expressed confidence that inflation is most likely returning to within the band in the current quarter and tracking toward the 2% midpoint over the next 12 months, supported by spare capacity, modest wage growth and contained core inflation.The economic backdrop remains mixed. The RBNZ said the economy is at an early stage of recovery, with strength in commodity prices supporting agricultural and regional activity. Manufacturing, construction and some retail sectors are benefiting from earlier OCR cuts. Yet households remain cautious, house price growth is weak and unemployment remains elevated despite signs of labour market stabilisation.The most market-relevant development lies in the updated policy track, which signals a slightly firmer medium-term stance:RBNZ sees Official Cash Rate at 2.26% in June 2026 (PVS 2.2%)RBNZ sees Official Cash Rate at 2.52% in March 2027 (PVS 2.34%)RBNZ sees Official Cash Rate at 2.62% in June 2027 (PVS 2.45%)RBNZ sees Official Cash Rate at 3.0% in March 2029RBNZ sees TWI NZD at around 68.0% in March 2027 (PVS 66.0%)RBNZ sees annual CPI 2.1% by March 2027 (PVS 2.2%)The upward revision to the OCR path suggests that while the near-term stance remains accommodative, the Committee anticipates a gradual removal of stimulus as the recovery firms and inflation settles sustainably near target.Minutes revealed a consensus decision to hold rates, though members acknowledged risks in both directions. Some highlighted the danger of policy remaining accommodative for too long, with inflation potentially more persistent. Others warned against reacting too quickly to firms’ pricing intentions, which could entrench expectations of stronger demand.The Committee reiterated that if the economy evolves as expected, policy will remain accommodative for some time before gradually normalising. However, the subtly higher projected rate path implies that markets may need to price a slightly steeper tightening profile over the medium term.For NZD and rates traders, the message is clear: steady for now, but the direction of travel has shifted marginally upward. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The RBNZ’s decision to keep the OCR at 2.25% is a clear signal that they’re cautiously optimistic about inflation, but traders need to pay attention to the revised rate path. With inflation projected to hover slightly above the 1-3% target band until the end of 2025, this indicates a potential for gradual tightening in the future. For forex traders, this could mean a stronger NZD if the market interprets this as a precursor to rate hikes. Watch for any shifts in the NZD/USD pair, especially if it approaches key resistance levels. The broader context shows that global central banks are also grappling with inflation, which could lead to volatility across related currencies like AUD and CAD. But here’s the flip side: if inflation doesn’t cool as expected, the RBNZ might be forced to act more aggressively, which could surprise the market. Keep an eye on economic indicators like employment data and consumer spending, as these will be crucial in shaping future RBNZ decisions. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the NZD/USD for potential strength as the RBNZ hints at future rate hikes; key resistance levels could signal trading opportunities.

China achieved 5% growth in 2025 on export strength, but analysts warn that sustaining momentum in 2026 will require a proactive shift toward boosting domestic demand and stabilising housing.Summary:China met its 5.0% GDP growth target in 2025, supported heavily by net exports.Export gains to Asia, Europe and Latin America offset US trade pressures.Manufacturing investment held up, especially in EVs, electronics and infrastructure.Property investment fell sharply again, domestic demand remains weak.The note argues Beijing must adopt a more proactive pro-growth stance in 2026 to prevent structural slowdown.China’s economy hit its official 5.0% growth target in 2025, but a new research note argues that meeting expectations last year only sharpens the policy challenge for 2026, and raises the urgency for a decisive shift toward domestic demand support.According to the analysis, the standout feature of 2025 was the resilience of Chinese industry in the face of US trade policy. Rather than suffering material damage, exporters redirected goods aggressively to alternative markets. Trade surpluses with Asia, Europe and Latin America expanded strongly, more than offsetting lost US opportunities. The authors also highlight the rapid expansion of Chinese-owned production facilities abroad, arguing that scale, lower costs and stronger global integration are creating durable earnings and revenue dividends for firms and the state.Domestically, the picture was more mixed. Overall fixed asset investment fell 3.8% in 2025, yet manufacturing investment still eked out growth despite tariff uncertainty and official pressure against unprofitable production. High-tech sectors such as electronics and chemicals remain at elevated investment levels following the 2020–2024 boom. The automotive sector, particularly electric vehicles, continues to expand capacity to meet global demand. China’s power generation and grid infrastructure buildout also stands in contrast to slower Western investment trends.The concern, the note argues, is sustainability. Net exports and associated industrial investment now represent a larger share of the economy than before the pandemic. With China’s share of global production already near record highs, that growth engine cannot keep accelerating indefinitely. To sustain growth near 5% in 2026 and beyond, policymakers will need to engineer a shift toward stronger household consumption and a stabilisation in housing.Property investment fell another 17% in 2025, and consumer sentiment remains cautious. The authors argue that the political hesitation to stimulate housing and household demand has largely run its course and that delaying action risks embedding a structurally weaker growth trend.A key warning is that local government-led investment cannot sustain expansion on its own. Without a revival in private consumption and related business investment, land sales and tax revenues will remain constrained, limiting regional fiscal capacity.The note ends on a constructive point: Chinese households retain high liquid savings and real income growth has been resilient. With property and land prices deeply depressed, a credible central government stimulus could unlock pent-up demand quickly and broaden activity across sectors and regions.The central message is clear: the growth pulse now hinges on policy resolve. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight China’s 5% GDP growth in 2025 is a double-edged sword for traders: while export strength is impressive, the real challenge lies ahead. The reliance on net exports to achieve this growth raises concerns about sustainability, especially as analysts highlight the need for a shift towards domestic demand and housing stabilization in 2026. For traders, this could mean volatility in related markets, particularly commodities and currencies tied to China’s economic health. If domestic demand doesn’t pick up, we might see a slowdown that could impact global supply chains and commodity prices. Watch the Chinese yuan closely; any signs of weakening could ripple through forex markets, affecting pairs like USD/CNY. Key levels to monitor are the 6.5 and 6.8 thresholds for the yuan, which could signal broader market sentiment. Here’s the thing: while the export boom is good news now, it’s crucial to keep an eye on domestic indicators moving forward. If China fails to pivot effectively, we could see a sharp correction in related assets, especially in the commodities sector, which often reacts to shifts in Chinese demand. Keep an ear to the ground for policy announcements that might hint at how China plans to tackle these challenges. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the Chinese yuan around the 6.5 and 6.8 levels; a failure to boost domestic demand could lead to significant market volatility.

The RBNZ held rates at 2.25% but brought forward the implied timing of its first hike, signalling a slightly firmer outlook than in November while maintaining that policy will remain accommodative for now.Summary:Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the OCR at 2.25%, as expected.Policy still described as accommodative for some time.OCR track now implies a potential hike by late (really late) 2026, earlier than signalled in November.Inflation briefly above target; labour market stabilising but still soft.Markets trimmed near-term hike odds; NZD and front-end rates eased.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25%, reinforcing a cautious but subtly firmer policy message in its first decision of the year.As widely anticipated, the Committee opted to hold steady, reiterating that monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative for some time while the recovery strengthens and inflation returns sustainably toward the 2% midpoint of its 1–3% target band. Annual CPI had edged slightly above the band at the end of 2025, though policymakers continue to expect inflation to settle back inside target in the current quarter.The shift in emphasis lies not in the hold itself, but in the forward guidance. The updated OCR track now points to the cash rate at 2.38% by the end of this year, implying the possibility of a hike sooner than previously signalled. At the November 2025 meeting, projections had effectively pushed any tightening discussion well into the outer years. The latest profile suggests the Committee is now more open to removing accommodation earlier — though only if the recovery evolves broadly as expected.Minutes underscored that the decision to hold was reached by consensus. While members agreed policy must remain supportive, they also acknowledged risks around inflation persistence and the possibility that stimulus may need to be withdrawn somewhat earlier should activity firm convincingly. That nuance marks a modest recalibration rather than a hawkish pivot.The economic backdrop remains fragile. Output has returned to growth but only after a prolonged downturn. The labour market is stabilising, yet unemployment remains elevated. Housing activity is subdued, with prices still well below their post-pandemic peaks in major centres. Headwinds from weak household spending and softer government demand continue to weigh on momentum.Market reaction reflected the balanced tone. The New Zealand dollar eased modestly and short-term swap rates dipped, as traders pared back expectations of a move, pushing pricing more decisively toward December.In sum, the RBNZ is not rushing toward tightening. However, compared with November, it has edged the conversation forward. The bias has shifted slightly upward, even as the central bank stresses patience.Staying tuned now for press conference. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The RBNZ’s decision to hold rates at 2.25% while signaling a potential hike sooner than expected is a game changer for Kiwi traders. This move indicates a shift in sentiment, suggesting the RBNZ is becoming more optimistic about economic recovery. Traders should note that while the current rate remains unchanged, the forward guidance hints at tightening, which could strengthen the NZD against major pairs. If the market reacts positively, we might see resistance levels around recent highs being tested. Keep an eye on the 2.30% mark as a potential pivot point for future rate hikes. However, the RBNZ’s commitment to an accommodative stance means volatility could persist, especially if global economic conditions shift unexpectedly. Watch for reactions from institutional players, as they might adjust their positions based on these signals. In the broader context, this could also impact commodity prices, particularly dairy, which is a significant export for New Zealand. If the NZD strengthens, it could affect the competitiveness of these exports, leading to potential ripple effects in related markets. Overall, traders should monitor the upcoming economic data releases closely, especially any inflation indicators that could influence the RBNZ’s next steps. 📮 Takeaway Watch for the NZD’s reaction around the 2.30% level as the RBNZ hints at earlier rate hikes; volatility is likely in the near term.

Governor Breman reinforced the RBNZ’s “accommodative for some time” stance while acknowledging a possible year-end hike, stressing any move depends on stronger growth and inflation pressure and that normalisation would be gradual. Summary Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman reinforced the post-decision message: policy stays accommodative, with only gradual normalisation ahead.Breman said there is a possibility of a rate hike by year-end, but the OCR track is conditional on the economy evolving as expected.She stressed the Bank is not planning to hike until it sees a stronger economy and clearer inflation pressure.Breman noted a Q4 hike is not fully priced into the Bank’s projected path.Housing: the RBNZ does not expect a fast rise in house prices.New Zealand’s central bank used its post-decision press conference to reinforce a carefully balanced message: policy remains accommodative for now, but the door is slightly more open to a first rate hike later this year if the recovery and inflation pressures firm.Following the decision to hold the Official Cash Rate at 2.25%, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman said the projected OCR track should be read as conditional rather than a pre-commitment. The profile is “based on how we see the economy evolving,” she noted, echoing the Monetary Policy Committee’s statement that settings are likely to remain supportive “for some time” and will only normalise gradually as the recovery strengthens and inflation moves sustainably toward the 2% midpoint.Breman acknowledged there is a “possibility” of a rate hike by the end of the year, a nuance that aligns with the Bank’s updated projections and the earlier shift in emphasis versus November. But she also pushed back against any interpretation that the RBNZ is gearing up for a rapid tightening cycle. The central bank is “not planning to hike until we see a stronger economy” and “more inflationary pressure,” she said, underscoring that the near-term baseline remains one of patience.In a detail likely to draw attention in markets, Breman said a fourth-quarter move is not fully priced into the Bank’s projected OCR path. In other words, while the track allows for the possibility of a year-end hike, it does not assume an aggressive or mechanical step-up — consistent with the statement’s guidance that accommodation will be withdrawn only gradually.On the housing market, Breman said the RBNZ does not expect to see a fast rise in house prices. That framing fits with the broader assessment that households remain cautious and the recovery is still at an early stage — factors that would normally argue for a measured approach to normalisation.For investors, the takeaway is continuity with a subtle shift: the RBNZ is inching the timing conversation forward, but it is still setting a high bar for action and signalling that any hiking phase, if it begins, is likely to be slow.Pretty dovish from the RBNZ Governor. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight RBNZ’s commitment to an accommodative stance signals ongoing support for the economy, but traders should brace for potential volatility. Breman’s comments indicate that while a rate hike could happen by year-end, it hinges on economic growth and inflation metrics. This suggests that traders should keep a close eye on upcoming economic data releases, particularly GDP and CPI figures, as these will likely dictate the timing and magnitude of any policy shifts. If inflation shows unexpected strength, we could see a rapid adjustment in market expectations, impacting not just NZD pairs but also broader forex markets. Moreover, the gradual normalization approach could lead to a prolonged period of low rates, which may keep the NZD under pressure against stronger currencies like the USD or AUD. Watch for key resistance levels around recent highs in NZD/USD and NZD/AUD, as any breakouts could signal a shift in sentiment. The real story is how traders react to the evolving economic landscape, so stay alert for any surprises in the data that could trigger swift market moves. 📮 Takeaway Monitor upcoming GDP and CPI releases closely; unexpected inflation could trigger a rapid shift in RBNZ policy and impact NZD pairs significantly.

Japan’s trade minister outlined three US investment projects worth $600m, $2.1bn and $33.3bn, spanning artificial diamonds and energy infrastructure for data centres, and said Tokyo is coordinating with Washington while preparing a second batch of deals.Japan’s trade minister Akazawa outlined three US investment projects: $600m artificial diamond, $2.1bn crude oil, $33.3bn gas-fired thermal power for data centres.Japanese corporates named as interested parties span heavy industry, energy, tech and materials.Tokyo will “closely coordinate” with Washington on project details and is preparing a second batch of deals.Akazawa said work will factor in PM Sanae Takaichi’s planned US visit.Theme: Japan-US economic alignment via energy security and data-centre power buildout.Japan is lining up a fresh wave of investment initiatives in the United States, with Trade Minister Akazawa detailing three flagship projects that span advanced materials and large-scale energy infrastructure designed to support the fast-growing power needs of data centres.Akazawa said the three projects include $600 million earmarked for an artificial diamond initiative, $2.1 billion tied to a crude oil project, and a far larger $33.3 billion investment linked to gas-fired thermal power capacity for data centres. The scale of the energy component underscores how the AI and cloud buildout is increasingly shaping cross-border capital flows, as countries and corporates look to secure reliable generation capacity and fuel supply chains.Tokyo’s messaging also stressed coordination rather than a one-off announcement. Akazawa said Japan will continue to closely coordinate with US counterparts on the details of the projects, while also working with Washington on a second batch of investment deals. He added that preparations will keep in mind Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s planned visit to the United States, suggesting a broader diplomatic timetable alongside the commercial pipeline.Akazawa named a wide range of Japanese firms expressing interest. For the artificial diamond project, he said Asahi Diamond and Noritake are among those interested — a sign of focus on specialised manufacturing inputs and high-performance materials. On the energy project, Akazawa said interest includes major industrial and technology groups such as Toshiba, Hitachi, Mitsubishi Electric and SoftBank Group, highlighting the overlap between power infrastructure, electrification and digital investment themes.For the crude oil project, he said parties showing interest include MOL, Nippon Steel, JFE Steel and Modec, pointing to potential involvement from shipping, industrial users and offshore engineering capability. Akazawa also noted that multiple smaller Japanese firms are interested in related US investment opportunities connected to parts supply, implying a broader supply-chain footprint beyond headline corporates.For markets, the emphasis is twofold. First, the scale of the gas-fired power investment puts energy and infrastructure at the centre of the Japan-US investment narrative, with potential read-throughs for engineering, equipment and utility-linked value chains. Second, the sequencing — coordination on details now, followed by a second batch of deals — suggests Tokyo is positioning these projects as a rolling programme rather than a single political deliverable.The details of partners, locations, financing structures and timelines were not specified in the remarks, leaving scope for further updates as US coordination progresses. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Japan’s $2.1bn crude oil project signals a strategic pivot in energy investments, and here’s why that matters: With rising geopolitical tensions and energy security concerns, this move could reshape supply chains and impact global oil prices. Traders should keep an eye on crude oil futures, especially if this investment leads to increased production or supply disruptions elsewhere. The $600m artificial diamond project also highlights Japan’s push into high-tech materials, which could influence related sectors like manufacturing and technology. Watch for potential ripple effects on stocks tied to energy and materials, as well as any shifts in currency pairs involving the yen and dollar. On the flip side, while these investments seem promising, they could face regulatory hurdles or delays, which might create volatility in the short term. For now, monitor crude oil prices closely—any significant movement could trigger trading opportunities, especially if it breaks key resistance or support levels in the coming weeks. 📮 Takeaway Keep an eye on crude oil futures and related stocks; any volatility could present trading opportunities, especially if prices break key levels.

USD/INR is expected to open flat as mildly firmer US front-end yields support the dollar, while persistent RBI offers around 90.70–90.80 cap upside and keep the pair range-bound. Summary:USD/INR seen opening largely flat around 90.66–90.70, with push-pull forces intact.Mild hawkish repricing in the US (front-end yields firmer) is supporting the dollar.Dollar index nudged up to 97.20, with most Asian FX softer.Upside in USD/INR capped by recurring RBI offers around 90.70–90.80 in recent sessions.Near-term bias: range trade unless US yields extend or RBI steps back.The Indian rupee looks set for another steady open, with USD/INR expected to begin the session largely flat around 90.66–90.70, as mild US yield support for the dollar runs into persistent supply from the Reserve Bank of India.The external driver remains a gentle lift in the US front end. The two-year US yield rose about 3bp on Tuesday and the dollar index edged higher to 97.20, leaving most Asian currencies on the back foot. The move reflects a small, slightly hawkish repricing of the Federal Reserve outlook following comments from senior Fed official Barr that policy is likely to remain on hold for some time, a nuance markets interpreted as reducing near-term easing urgency and keeping front-end rates supported.For USD/INR, that combination typically tilts the balance toward a firmer dollar bias at the margin, particularly when broader regional FX is soft. But the local overlay continues to dominate day-to-day price action. Traders have repeatedly seen the RBI on the offer around 90.70–90.80 in recent sessions, effectively turning that zone into a near-term cap and reinforcing a contained range.The net result is a market that is struggling to build momentum in either direction. Higher US yields can keep USD/INR underpinned on dips, but the RBI’s recurring supply blunts upside follow-through and encourages mean reversion. In practice, that often produces “grind higher, fade higher” behaviour, with rallies meeting offers and pullbacks attracting dollar demand as long as the US rate backdrop remains supportive.Looking ahead, the near-term break points are straightforward. A renewed push higher in US front-end yields or a broader dollar leg-up would test the top of the range again. Conversely, any easing in US yields or improved risk tone across Asia would likely pressure USD/INR lower, but sustained downside would be harder to achieve if the RBI remains active in smoothing moves.Until one of those forces changes materially, USD/INR still looks geared toward a controlled, RBI-managed range rather than a directional trend. Added – USD/INR is tracking a little lower, as are Indian tech shares. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source

The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25%, reiterated that policy will stay accommodative while inflation returns toward target, and brought forward its projections for a potential first hike, reinforcing a data-dependent, gradual normalisation path.Summary:The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the OCR at 2.25%, reinforcing that policy remains supportive.The updated OCR track was lifted vs November, bringing the first potential hike closer but still conditional.The central bank views the economy as in the early stages of recovery and inflation returning toward target.Forecasts show inflation falling toward 2% and growth near 2.9% this year, underpinned by commodity strength but with persistent spare capacity.Markets broadly took the message as a balanced hold with doors open for later hikes, even if the pace of tightening remains slow.New Zealand’s central bank delivered a cautiously calibrated message alongside its decision to hold the Official Cash Rate at 2.25%, underscoring that monetary policy will stay accommodative “for some time” even as it subtly brings the possibility of future tightening into view.In the bank’s February 2026 Monetary Policy Statement, and as summarised in a note from Kiwibank analysts, policymakers reiterated that the economy remains in the early stages of recovery and that inflation is likely to fall back toward the midpoint of the 1–3% target band over the coming year. Spare capacity, modest wage growth and core inflation readings within the target range support the central forecast of inflation settling around 2%. There was also emphasis on balanced risks, with the global landscape still uncertain and domestic demand evolution key to how quickly price pressures dissipate. While the OCR was held as expected, the RBNZ’s revised projections lifted the end-of-year rate path to around 2.38%, a modest upward shift compared with the train of forecasts from November and signalling that policymakers now see the first rate rise as possible before year-end if the economy evolves as expected. Markets interpreted this as a subtle recalibration rather than a pronounced policy pivot — a reiteration that any future tightening will be gradual and data-dependent, not an imminent shift. Underlying data show that growth has gained traction since late 2025, and while non-tradable inflationary pressures have eased, tradable inflation remains elevated partly due to past currency weakness. The bank’s updated outlook also reflects a slightly less negative output gap and forecasts annual growth of around 2.9% this year, up on earlier estimates. Despite this improvement, significant spare capacity remains, including in labour markets, reinforcing the case for patience. For markets, the calibrated message delivered a familiar duality: support where needed, but openness to tightening if conditions warrant it. New Zealand swap rates and the kiwi dollar saw only modest moves post-decision, reflecting that the revised rate track was largely in line with expectations and that the emphasis remains on measured progression rather than a sudden shift in stance.In essence, the RBNZ has reaffirmed its commitment to accommodative policy for now, while signalling that tightening — hinted at for year-end — is becoming a more credible part of the medium-term outlook. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The RBNZ’s decision to keep the OCR at 2.25% signals ongoing support for the economy, and here’s why that matters now: By maintaining an accommodative stance, the RBNZ is clearly prioritizing economic recovery over immediate inflation concerns. This could lead to a weaker NZD in the short term, as traders might anticipate prolonged low interest rates. For forex traders, this means keeping an eye on NZD pairs, particularly against the USD and AUD, as any signs of a shift in sentiment could trigger volatility. The RBNZ’s commitment to a gradual normalization path suggests that any future hikes will be data-driven, making economic indicators like GDP growth and employment figures crucial to watch. If inflation doesn’t pick up as expected, the RBNZ might delay tightening, which could further pressure the NZD. On the flip side, if inflation surprises to the upside, we could see a rapid shift in market sentiment, leading to a potential spike in the NZD. Traders should monitor key levels around 0.60 against the USD for potential breakouts or reversals. Overall, the immediate focus should be on upcoming economic data releases that could influence the RBNZ’s outlook and the NZD’s trajectory. 📮 Takeaway Watch for economic indicators in New Zealand; a surprise in inflation could shift the RBNZ’s stance and impact the NZD significantly.

RBNZ sees inflation falling toward target as recovery slowly builds, stays dovishUSD/INR steady as US yields support dollar, RBI offers cap upsideJapan outlines US investment projects, including $33bn gas power for data centresRBNZ’s Breman flags possible year-end hike, but says policy stays accommodativeRecap – RBNZ holds at 2.25% but brings forward implied timing of first rate hikeWestpac: China must shift to proactive policy in 2026 to sustain growthRBNZ holds OCR at 2.25%, lifts projected rate path modestly higherAustralian wage growth as expected and the same as prior quarterWestpac Leading Index slows to near-flat, signals cooling growth momentumJapan January exports surge much higher than expectedIMF urges Japan to keep raising rates, warns against sales tax cutsJapan manufacturers rebound in February Reuters Tankan, services sentiment slipsGoldman lifts AUD/USD forecasts to 0.74 as RBA hawkish stance supports outlookGoldman upgrades Japan to overweight, lifts TOPIX target to 4,300NZ data: Q4 PPI output +0.1% q/q (exp +0.7%, prior +0.6%) & inputs -0.5% (+0.5%, +0.2%)investingLive Americas market news wrap: Gold/oil tumble after Iran signals deal progressAt a glance:Japan exports surged at the fastest pace in over three years; trade minister flagged major US investment projects.Yen weakened modestly on the session but moves were contained.Australia’s Q4 wages rose 0.8% q/q; annual growth steady at 3.4%, little sign of acceleration.NZD led FX losses after the RBNZ struck a more dovish tone and reinforced an accommodative stance.AUD slipped alongside NZD; broader FX subdued amid regional holidays.Gold pushed back above US$4,900; oil traded quietly.Japan’s exports rose at their fastest annual pace in more than three years, with shipments to China and the European Union driving the strength. The upbeat trade data added to evidence of resilience in Japan’s external sector. Later in the session, Trade Minister Akazawa outlined several sizeable US investment projects spanning energy infrastructure and advanced materials, reinforcing the theme of deeper Japan–US economic alignment. The yen softened on the day, though the overall move was relatively modest.In Australia, wages grew at a moderate and steady clip in the fourth quarter. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the wage price index rose 0.8% q/q, matching the prior quarter and consensus expectations. Annual growth edged up to 3.4% from a revised 3.3%, remaining within the 3.2%–3.6% range seen over the past six quarters. The figures suggest stable wage pressures rather than renewed acceleration, leaving markets looking ahead to January labour force data on Thursday for a clearer steer on momentum.The New Zealand dollar was the clear underperformer in Asian trade. Sellers stepped in after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the OCR steady and reiterated that monetary policy will need to remain accommodative for some time. The Bank’s tone was read as more dovish than expected, and Governor Breman reinforced that impression at the press conference. While she acknowledged a year-end rate hike was possible, she stressed that it is not built into the Bank’s projected rate path and would depend on materially stronger economic conditions and firmer inflation pressures. The near-term baseline, she emphasised, remains one of patience.AUD tracked lower alongside the kiwi, though losses were more contained.Elsewhere, major FX pairs were largely subdued, with China, Singapore and Hong Kong still on holiday. Oil price action was muted, while gold managed a renewed push above US$4,900.RBNZ cash rate remained unchanged. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight RBNZ’s dovish stance is key for traders watching the NZD and AUD pairs. With the RBNZ holding rates steady at 2.25% while hinting at a possible year-end hike, traders should be cautious. The central bank’s focus on falling inflation suggests a longer-term accommodative policy, which could keep the NZD under pressure against stronger currencies like the USD. Meanwhile, the USD/INR remains stable, supported by US yields, indicating that the dollar’s strength is likely to persist in the near term. This dynamic could lead to a divergence in trading strategies for those involved in cross-currency pairs. It’s worth noting that while the RBNZ’s outlook is cautiously optimistic, any unexpected shifts in US economic data could trigger volatility. Traders should keep an eye on US yield movements and inflation reports, as these will likely influence the USD’s performance against the NZD and other currencies. Watch for key resistance levels in the NZD/USD pair around recent highs, as a break could signal a shift in sentiment. 📮 Takeaway Monitor US yield trends and RBNZ’s inflation data closely; key resistance for NZD/USD is around recent highs, which could signal shifts in sentiment.