This follows from the 1.2% growth in 2024 and the 1.3% growth posted in 2023. In terms of GDP per capita, the Swiss economy grew by 0.5% in 2025. And just for a bit more of a benchmark, the GDP per capita has expanded by 4.8% since 2019.Looking at the details, the industrial sector was the main drag as it contributed negatively to GDP growth once again. This makes it the third straight year running that it has contracted. While the pharmaceutical industry grew, it could not fully offset declines in other industrial areas.On industry weakness, the report by SECO highlights that European demand was extremely soft year. In particular, exports to Germany fell off significantly and the sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc is not helping in that regard. The currency strength is creating a “braking effect” on international competitiveness.Meanwhile, the boost in Swiss GDP mainly stems from its services sector – which grew strongly last year, in particular finance and trade. That largely came about in the first half of the year, helping to counterbalance the ongoing weaknesses in the industrial sector. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source

Well, that seems to have been quite a short meeting. For some context, they were scheduled to meet at 0800 GMT (5pm Tokyo time) and it’s over and done with in less than 20 minutes. This is their first meeting since the snap election results, which resulted in a landslide victory for Takaichi and her ruling LDP party.Ueda goes on to say that he won’t comment on the details of his talks with Takaichi. Adding that she made no specific policy request to him and the central bank.The Japanese yen currency isn’t as pressured this time around as compared to their previous meeting in November. That especially since intervention risks are helping to keep traders in check since the end of January already.If anything, I guess Takaichi might want to at least mention that in not wanting the BOJ to hike rates further; that is if policymakers at the central bank feel that they need to step in to prevent the yen currency from freefalling.Considering the short meeting, I’m not sure if they would even go into much details about the upcoming spring wage negotiations and how that will impact the next steps at the BOJ. So, that will remain to be seen I guess.In any case, Takaichi will have her chance to influence proceedings at the BOJ soon enough. That as the government has the opportunity to submit their choice of nominees in replacing two BOJ board members soon enough. More background on that can be found here: Japan to submit BOJ board nominee to parliament as early as this month – report This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The brevity of this meeting signals potential volatility in the markets, especially given its timing post-election. Traders should be on alert as quick decisions can lead to rapid price movements. With the snap election results indicating a landslide, there’s a chance that the new leadership will implement swift policy changes that could impact economic indicators. If the market perceives these changes as favorable, we might see a bullish trend in related assets. Conversely, any perceived instability could lead to a sell-off. Keep an eye on key economic data releases in the coming days, as they will likely reflect the new government’s direction. Also, watch for reactions from major market players—institutions might adjust their positions based on the new political landscape. The next few sessions could be crucial for determining market sentiment, so traders should monitor price levels closely, particularly any support or resistance that emerges in the wake of these developments. 📮 Takeaway Stay alert for potential volatility in the markets as new policies from the election could shift sentiment; watch key economic data releases for clues.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:Last week, we got a hot US NFP report and slightly soft US CPI data. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 62 bps of easing seen by year-end. Overall, the data doesn’t really point in that direction, but we will need to see more of it to confirm or deny the market pricing. Given the negligible changes to the big picture after all the data, the US dollar remained mostly rangebound with mixed performance against the major currencies. The future outlook will still be guided by the evolution of the data. This week, all the important stuff will be released on Friday as we get the US Flash PMIs and the Q4 GDP. We might also get the US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. JPY:On the JPY side, we’ve seen a big “sell the fact” trade following the widely expected Takaichi’s victory in the lower house elections, but other than that, nothing has changed. In fact, the data hasn’t been supporting urgent rate hikes, and we haven’t got anything new from the central bank either. As a reminder, the BoJ held interest rates steady as expected at the last policy meeting and upgraded slightly growth and inflation forecasts due to the expansionary fiscal policies. Governor Ueda didn’t offer anything new in terms of forward guidance as he just repeated that they will keep raising rates if the economic outlook is realised. He also added that April price behaviour will be a factor to mull over a rate hike. This suggests that April is when they expect to deliver another rate hike if the data supports such a move. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY is consolidating at the major trendline. The buyers continue to step in there with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally back into the 159.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to open the door for a drop into the 150.00 handle next.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the rangebound price action near the trendline. There’s not much else we can add here, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see two key swing levels defining the downtrend. The first one around the 153.70 level defines the consolidation. A break above it should see the buyers increasing the bullish bets into the next swing level at 154.65. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around the 153.70 resistance with a defined risk above it to keep targeting a break below the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSOn Wednesday we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the Japanese CPI, the US Q4 GDP, the US PCE price index for December, the US Flash PMIs and a potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The recent US NFP report sparked a surge in rate cut expectations, but here’s why traders should tread carefully: While the market is pricing in 62 bps of easing by year-end, the mixed signals from the NFP and CPI data suggest volatility ahead. A strong NFP typically supports the dollar, yet the soft CPI could indicate a cooling economy, leading to uncertainty in Fed policy. Traders should monitor how these economic indicators evolve in the coming weeks, especially as we approach the next FOMC meeting. If inflation remains subdued, the Fed might pivot, but if employment numbers stay robust, that could keep rates higher for longer. Look out for key levels around the USD index; a break below recent support could trigger further dollar weakness. Conversely, if the data points to sustained growth, we might see a rebound. Keeping an eye on correlated assets like gold and equities will also be crucial, as they often react sharply to shifts in rate expectations. The real story is how the market interprets these mixed signals, so stay nimble and ready to adjust your positions based on incoming data. 📮 Takeaway Watch for USD index support levels; a break could signal further weakness, while strong employment data may keep rates elevated.

Monday begins quietly, with U.S. markets closed for Presidents’ Day. In China, markets will also be affected by the Spring Festival holiday. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release the claimant count change, the average earnings index 3m/y, and the unemployment rate. In Canada, the focus will be on inflation data. Wednesday brings the RBNZ monetary policy announcement in New Zealand, while the U.K. will publish its latest inflation figures. On Thursday, Australia will release employment change and the unemployment rate, and the U.S. will report weekly unemployment claims. Friday will see the release of flash manufacturing and services PMIs for the Eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. In addition, the U.K. will publish retail sales m/m, while the U.S. will release advance GDP q/q and the core PCE price index m/m. Throughout the week, several FOMC members are also expected to deliver remarks. In Canada, the consensus for CPI m/m is 0.1% versus -0.2% previously. Median CPI y/y is expected to remain unchanged at 2.5%, trimmed CPI y/y is seen easing from 2.7% to 2.6%, while common CPI y/y is projected to hold steady at 2.8%. RBC analysts suggest that a modest uptick in headline inflation is likely, driven largely by temporary tax effects rather than a renewed acceleration in underlying price pressures. The absence of last year’s GST/HST holiday is expected to distort annual comparisons, while food inflation remains elevated. Grocery prices also appear to have stayed firm while energy prices, by contrast, are expected to provide a significant drag, as gasoline prices have fallen below year-ago levels. Given that food and energy costs are heavily influenced by global factors, the Bank of Canada is likely to place greater emphasis on core inflation metrics. Measures such as median and trimmed CPI are expected to remain in the mid-2% range, easing gradually but still sitting above the Bank’s 2% target. At this week’s meeting, the RBNZ is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.25%. This will be the first meeting under Governor Anna Breman. Markets anticipate an updated set of projections, with the first rate hike possibly projected for December. Domestic activity in New Zealand remains firm, and inflation is still running above the Bank’s target. However, policymakers are likely to emphasize the presence of remaining spare capacity, tighter financial conditions, and easing food and fuel inflation, all of which should help guide inflation back towards the 2% target, Westpac analysts said. While a stronger growth outlook could prompt an upward revision to the longer-run OCR projection, the Bank is unlikely to signal any urgency around further tightening. Overall, the messaging is expected to lean more dovish than hawkish, broadly aligning with current market pricing rather than pushing expectations materially higher. In the U.K., the consensus for CPI y/y is 3.0% vs. 3.4% previously, while core CPI y/y is expected to drop to 3.0% from 3.2%. Headline inflation is projected to decline, driven by softer food price pressures and the unwind of last year’s private school tax increase. However, core inflation is likely to prove more persistent, and this is the measure the BoE is monitoring most closely. According to ING analysts, a more significant drop in inflation is expected in April, with headline CPI potentially falling to around 1.8%. Some softness is expected on the jobs front and the annual wage growth is also likely to moderate. If this turns out to be the case for February data as well, the BoE might deliver an additional rate cut next month. Average earnings index 3m/y is expected to drop from 4.7% to 4.6% and the unemployment rate is likely to print unchanged at 5.1%. In Australia, the consensus for employment change is 20.1K versus 65.2K previously, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. Employment growth appears to be near its low point, as the drag from the unwind in the care-related sector fades and private-sector hiring begins to recover. However, renewed inflation pressures and a shift in market interest rate expectations suggest that the employment recovery this year could be more subdued. Westpac analysts expect a stronger gain of around 40K in the January report. They also note that labour demand appeared to stabilise toward the end of last year, while a gradual easing in labour supply helped keep the unemployment rate broadly unchanged. Recent data do not yet point to a renewed tightening in labour market conditions. Instead, they suggest a reasonably solid year-end backdrop, albeit distorted by seasonal volatility for January. Some of the late-year resilience may have reflected expectations of additional policy support in 2026, an assumption that has since shifted. In the U.S., the consensus for the core PCE price index m/m is 0.3% versus 0.2% previously. Personal income is expected to rise 0.3% m/m compared to 0.3% prior, while personal spending is forecast at 0.4% versus 0.5%. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE deflator, will be closely watched. A 0.3% increase would reinforce the case for policy patience rather than aggressive easing. U.S. consumer fundamentals remain relatively firm heading into 2026, with household spending continuing to expand at a steady pace. Nominal consumption growth is expected to remain modest at year-end, leaving real spending flat.The softer December retail sales likely reflect timing effects rather than a genuine weakening in demand. As such, recent data do little to challenge the broader constructive outlook for consumers, Wells Fargo analysts said. Income growth remains a key constraint, as slower gains may require households to dip further into savings. Even so, the near-term consumption outlook is supported by easing inflation, tax relief, and more stable employment conditions, which should help sustain moderate real spending growth into 2026. In the U.S., the consensus for advance GDP q/q is 2.8% compared to 4.4% previously. Economic momentum likely eased toward the end of the year, though the underlying backdrop remains resilient. Fourth-quarter growth is estimated to have moderated, partly reflecting the drag from the federal government shutdown, which temporarily weighed on headline activity. Excluding

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:Last week, we got a hot US NFP report and slightly soft US CPI data. The market firmed up rate cut bets with 62 bps of easing seen by year-end. Overall, the data doesn’t really point in that direction, but we will need to see more of it to confirm or deny the market pricing. Given the negligible changes to the big picture after all the data, the US dollar remained mostly rangebound with mixed performance against the major currencies. The future outlook will still be guided by the evolution of the data. This week, all the important stuff will be released on Friday as we get the US Flash PMIs and the Q4 GDP. We might also get the US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs.GBP:On the GBP side, it’s going to be a big week for the pound as we get the most important economic releases. In fact, tomorrow we begin with the UK employment report, followed in the coming days by UK CPI, Flash PMIs, and retail sales data. Given the market pricing, higher than expected data will likely give the pound a boost, while soft figures could weigh on the currency.As a reminder, the BoE surprised with a dovish hold at the last meeting as 4 members dissented for a rate cut versus 2 expected. Moreover, they changed the guidance in the statement from “the bank rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path” to “the bank rate is likely to be reduced further”. Inflation forecasts were also revised much lower across the board. Lastly, the Agents’ Pay Survey showed wage growth to average 3.4% in 2026 vs 3.5% expected. Traders are now pricing a 65% chance of a rate cut at the next meeting already and a total of 48 bps of easing by year-end. GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD couldn’t extend the drop into the major trendline and bounced near the 1.35 handle. We got stuck in a consolidation last week as the US data didn’t change anything in the bigger picture. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see a few important swing levels. The price bounced around the 1.3586 level which has been defining the rebound into the highs. A break above the 1.3732 level should open the door for a rally into the cycle highs and we can expect the buyers to pile in on the break. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in at the 1.3732 level with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the major trendline.GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see the price broke above the downward trendline that was defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. We now have the 1.3670 level that could act as resistance. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to extend the rebound into the 1.3732 level next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we get the UK employment report. On Wednesday, we have the UK CPI and the FOMC Meeting Minutes. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the UK Retail Sales, the UK Flash PMIs, the US Q4 GDP, the US PCE price index for December, the US Flash PMIs and a potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The market’s reaction to the recent NFP and CPI data is a classic case of over-interpretation. While the NFP report was strong, the CPI data was only slightly soft, leading to a surge in rate cut expectations. Traders are now pricing in 62 basis points of easing by year-end, but this could be premature. The Fed has been clear about its data dependency, and one set of mixed indicators isn’t enough to shift their stance significantly. If upcoming data continues to show resilience in the labor market or inflation remains sticky, those rate cut bets could unwind quickly, leading to volatility in USD pairs. Watch for the next CPI release and any Fed commentary that could provide clarity. If the USD starts to strengthen again, it could signal a shift in sentiment, especially against currencies like the Euro or GBP, which are also facing their own economic challenges. Keep an eye on the 1.1000 level for EUR/USD; a break below could trigger further selling pressure as traders reassess their positions based on shifting rate expectations. 📮 Takeaway Monitor upcoming CPI data closely; a stronger report could reverse rate cut bets and strengthen the USD, particularly if EUR/USD breaks below 1.1000.

The currency pair had a bit of a mixed showing last week, with the early Monday move seeing price climb back above 1.1900 before stalling closer to 1.1920. After that, the hotter-than-expected US jobs report here sent the pair back down below the figure level. And since then, the pair has been meandering just under 1.1900 but with not enough momentum to break towards 1.1800.So, what’s next for EUR/USD?The technical story shows that the pair is consolidating a little as we get into the new week. That as price action rests in between both the 100 (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages. That suggests the near-term bias is more neutral for now. The latter is the bigger key technical level as it provides a floor for price action since last week already.The key level is seen at 1.1853 currently, keeping close to a large set of option expiries for the pair today. As such, that should reinforce a floor of sorts for price action in trading today. That considering a lack of major catalysts on the day and with it being a US holiday.As such, the next key move this week will have to come on a break on either side of the key near-term levels highlighted. Push back above the 100-hour moving average, and the near-term bias turns more bullish. Fall below the 200-hour moving average, and the near-term bias switches to being more bearish instead. The latter will open the door towards the 1.1800 mark next.In terms of fundamental factors, the euro side of the equation seems to be more limited. I’m saying that in the sense that everything that we know is already factored into the euro currency already.The ECB remains on the sidelines with markets not really expecting anything from euro area data in the short-term to change that outlook. Meanwhile, EUR/USD closer to the 1.20 level will keep ECB policymakers on guard and that will also see long positions be more wary.As such, it’s more of the dollar side of the equation that will do the work in the week ahead. On the data docket, there is the FOMC meeting minutes, US Q4 GDP, PCE price data, and PMI data to work through. But besides that, there are also two other key risk events worth noting here.All the while as markets are continuing to size up the dollar and its vulnerabilities, amid a sluggish start to the new year in general. That especially since traders are sticking with the de-dollarisation narrative and currency debasement narrative for the most part.ING is of the view that while the pair may be “overvalued” by their estimates, a softer dollar will continue to keep it underpinned for the time being.”The short-term fair value of EUR/USD has dropped to 1.165 after the latest hawkish repricing in the USD curve, meaning the overvaluation gap has now widened too. In line with our USD view, we are reluctant to see that gap being filled entirely, even if some downside risks for the pair remain.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight The recent volatility around the 1.1900 level highlights key trading dynamics for this currency pair. Last week’s mixed performance, particularly the spike above 1.1900 followed by a drop after the US jobs report, suggests traders are reacting to macroeconomic indicators rather than technical levels alone. The jobs report’s unexpected strength has implications for interest rate expectations, which could further influence the pair’s direction. If the pair continues to struggle around 1.1920, it could signal a bearish trend, especially if it fails to reclaim that level in the coming days. Traders should keep an eye on the 1.1900 support; a break below could trigger further selling pressure. Conversely, if it manages to hold above this level, a retest of 1.1920 could be on the table. It’s worth noting that the broader market sentiment is also shifting, with potential ripple effects on related assets like USD/JPY or EUR/USD. Watch for any further economic data releases this week that could sway sentiment, particularly around employment and inflation metrics, as these will be crucial for gauging future movements. 📮 Takeaway Monitor the 1.1900 support level closely; a break below could lead to increased selling pressure in the coming days.

Sometimes in life, we always go by the principle of using Occam’s razor to work things out. It’s not so much the best thing to abide by when trading, but one of the best principles I find in trading is to always keep things simple. That is also in part what Greg tends to preach in educating new traders, that is the KISS principle i.e. Keep It Simple to be Successful.After the sharp retracement at the end of January, silver has struggled so far for any recovery momentum in February. The precious metal is currently down nearly 10% on the month, with February itself being typically a bad seasonal month for the precious metal.And when you pair that up with the charts, things are starting to look dicey after last week’s recovery bounce was dashed.After the sharp decline at the end of January, silver has been consolidating lower in the past two weeks. However, the worry now is that we might be starting to see a pattern of lower highs, lower lows start to be formed. And that is never a good signal for price momentum on any charts.It’s still early and there is scope for things to change up in the week ahead. But if dip buyers can’t shake off the bearish pattern, it could lead to more technical trouble for the precious metal in due time. That especially now that the volatility spikes are starting to settle down. The calmer environment will allow for traders to be more level-headed in making decisions, and that also means sticking to simpler fundamental and technical analysis in conducting trades.And so if the lower highs, lower lows pattern continues to unfold, it will keep dip buyers sidelined until a technical shift happens.The bigger picture chart shows the next key support level for silver might be pointing to more pain in the short-term. That as the 100-day moving average is only seen at around $65.35 currently. The extended drop on early 6 February came close to testing the key level before dip buyers stepped in to produce a stirring comeback.As such, silver bulls will have to try and get out of this rut quickly or else the simple argument for a further decline may start to take over in the second half of February trading. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWCrude oil prices came under some pressure in the final part of last week as we got a couple of bearish catalysts. On the US-Iran negotiations front, there have been many mixed signals, but it looks like the Iranians are willing to compromise given the bleak consequences that a no-deal could have. In fact, the US is said to be prepared to sustain weeks-long operations against Iran if needed. Given the uncertainty, it shouldn’t be surprising to see a rangebound price action in the crude oil market. Tomorrow, we have the second round of talks in Geneva, so watch out for market-moving headlines.On the OPEC+ front, we got a report on Friday saying that some nations see scope to resume oil output hikes in April, although a decision hasn’t been made yet and talks will continue ahead of the March 1 meeting. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil is consolidating between the 66.43 and 62.35 levels as negotiations between US and Iran continue. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price broke below the upward trendline which could either signal a reversal or just a more complex pullback. For now, the price is consolidating at the 62.35 support as the buyers continue to step in to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to extend the drop into the 61.14 level next.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the rangebound price action at the 62.35 support. We have a strong resistance zone around the 63.30 level where we can also find the confluence with the downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above the resistance to target a break below the 62.35 support, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 66.00 handle next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the second round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. On Wednesday, we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Q4 GDP, the US PCE price index for December, the US Flash PMIs and a potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com. 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Crude oil prices are feeling the heat from bearish catalysts, especially with US-Iran negotiations showing signs of compromise. This shift could lead to increased supply in the market, which traders need to watch closely. If Iran moves forward with any agreements, we could see a significant drop in prices as more oil enters the market. This is particularly relevant as we approach the end of the month, a time when traders often reassess positions based on geopolitical developments. Keep an eye on key technical levels; if prices break below recent support, it could trigger further selling. But here’s the flip side: if negotiations stall or tensions escalate, we might see a quick rebound in prices. So, it’s crucial to monitor not just the headlines but also the underlying market sentiment. Watch for volatility spikes in related assets like energy stocks and ETFs, as they often react sharply to crude price movements. In the coming days, focus on the $70 mark for crude as a critical level; a breach could signal a deeper correction, while holding above might indicate resilience. 📮 Takeaway Watch for crude oil prices around the $70 mark; a break below could lead to further declines, while stability may signal a rebound.

New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) declined to -1.1% in January from previous -0.1% 🔗 Source 💡 DMK Insight Retail sales in New Zealand just took a hit, and here’s why that matters: A decline to -1.1% from -0.1% signals weakening consumer confidence, which could ripple through the economy. For traders, this data is crucial as it may prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to reconsider its monetary policy stance. If the trend continues, expect volatility in the NZD, particularly against pairs like AUD/NZD or NZD/USD. Watch for key support levels around recent lows, as a break could trigger further selling pressure. The broader context shows a global trend of tightening consumer spending, so keep an eye on related markets like equities and commodities that could also feel the pinch. But here’s the flip side: if the market overreacts, there might be a buying opportunity for those looking to capitalize on a potential bounce-back in retail sentiment. Monitor the next set of economic indicators closely, as they could provide insights into whether this is a one-off dip or part of a larger trend. The immediate focus should be on how the NZD reacts in the coming days, especially around key technical levels. 📮 Takeaway Watch for NZD volatility as retail sales decline could influence monetary policy; key support levels are critical in the coming days.