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Tomorrow is one of those rare calendar collisions: the March non-farm payrolls report is released at 8:30 am ET on Good Friday — a day when the stock market is closed.Good Friday has been a NYSE holiday almost every year since 1864. It’s the only stock market holiday that isn’t also a federal holiday. The date moves around because it’s tied to the lunar calendar — and this year it falls on April 3.The BLS releases the employment situation report on the third Friday after the week containing the 12th of the month, which is usually the first Friday of the month. This time, that’s also April 3.The last time this happened was 2023, with previous occurrences in 2021, 2015, 2012, 2010, 2007, and 1999.What’s open tomorrowThe government is open. Good Friday is not a federal holiday, so the BLS will release the March employment report at 8:30 am ET on schedule. Consensus is for +60,000 jobs after February’s -92,000 (see the economic calendar for more).Here’s the breakdown:Closed all day: NYSE and Nasdaq cash equities, plus most global exchanges including London, Toronto, Hong Kong, Frankfurt, and Sydney.Open for abbreviated sessions: CME equity index futures will trade briefly with an early close around 9:15 am CT (10:15 am ET), using April 2 settlement prices. CME interest rate, FX, and crypto futures will also run abbreviated sessions with unique settlement procedures. Spot forex trades as normal, as always. Crypto markets are open 24/7, though futures will follow the CME calendar.Bond market: SIFMA recommended a full close on Good Friday for U.S. dollar-denominated fixed income, though the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and banks will be open. FINRA/TRACE will be closed so we won’t get a read on bonds.The bottom line: any payroll surprise will channel through futures and FX, though war news is still paramount.A history of Good Friday surprisesBeth Stanton had an excellent thread on X walking through the backstory. Until 1996, the bond industry association (now SIFMA) recommended a full close on Good Friday, even when it coincided with NFP.That was tested in April 1994 when payrolls came in at +456,000 — nearly double the 238,000 forecast. It was ugly. Futures were open and many dealers had staffed their desks anyway.So when it happened again in 1996, the association recommended keeping bonds open until noon. Payrolls printed +140,000 — almost three times the 49,000 consensus — and another sharp selloff followed.However we’re now back to a situation where the bond market is closed. Will we get another surprise?
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report hits at a unique time, and here’s why that’s critical: with the stock market closed for Good Friday, traders in forex and crypto will be left to react to the data without traditional equity market cues. This could lead to heightened volatility in those markets, especially if the numbers deviate significantly from expectations. Traders should be prepared for potential spikes in USD pairs and crypto assets, as market participants adjust their positions based on the employment figures. The non-farm payrolls report often sets the tone for the week ahead, influencing Fed policy expectations and overall market sentiment. If the report shows stronger-than-expected job growth, it could bolster the dollar, leading to a sell-off in risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Conversely, weaker numbers might trigger a flight to safety, benefiting gold and stablecoins. Watch for key levels in USD pairs, particularly if the dollar index reacts sharply to the data. Given the timing, the immediate aftermath of the report could be a prime opportunity for day traders looking to capitalize on volatility.
📮 Takeaway
Keep an eye on the non-farm payrolls report tomorrow; significant deviations could trigger volatility in USD pairs and crypto markets.
