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The RBA decision is at 2:30 pm Sydney time or 0330 GMT or 10:30 pm in New York. There is a news conference an hour later and that will be critical.I find the RBA to be a critical central bank to watch as it’s at the leading edge of the large group of central banks that cut rates following the inflation spike but has now found a bottom. The next move — it appears — will be to start hiking rates. The timing of that is what has my attention and here is what the market sees in terms of probabilities.Feb 3 (next meeting): 16% chance of a hikeMarch 17: 33% chance of a hikeMay 5: 53% chance of a hikeJune 16: 78% chance of a hikeAug 11: 1 hike fully priced in, small chance of a secondDec 8: 1 hike fully priced in, 60% chance of a secondIf the RBA and Bullock are hawkish, look for those numbers to creep higher, though it’s premature to expect any kind of strong short-term signal.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The RBA’s upcoming decision is crucial for traders, especially given its timing and the potential market reactions. With the announcement set for 2:30 PM Sydney time, traders should brace for volatility across AUD pairs, particularly if the RBA hints at future rate hikes or maintains a dovish stance. The subsequent news conference could provide insights into the RBA’s economic outlook, which could further influence market sentiment. Look for key levels in AUD/USD; a break below recent support could trigger sell-offs, while a bullish tone from the RBA might push it higher. This decision also has ripple effects on commodities, especially if the RBA’s stance impacts the Australian dollar’s strength against gold and oil prices. Keep an eye on how institutional players react post-announcement, as their positioning could set the tone for the next trading sessions. Overall, this is a pivotal moment for traders to reassess their strategies based on the RBA’s guidance and the broader economic context.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for AUD/USD reaction post-RBA decision; a break below key support could signal further downside.
