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Figure Heloc 
Fundamental OverviewThe USD regained some
ground in the past days but the momentum stalled as December rate cut odds jumped following
Fed’s
Williams dovish comments. As of now, the December rate
cut odds stand around 70% but we won’t get much data before the FOMC meeting,
so the focus will likely be mainly on jobless claims and ADP data. Weak data should
keep weighing on the greenback, while strong data could provide some short-term support. On the JPY side, nothing
has changed. The currency has been weakening since the last BoJ policy decision
where the central bank left interest rates unchanged as expected with again two
dissenters voting for a hike. There were no surprises but
Governor Ueda focusing on spring wage negotiations suggested that the next hike
could be delayed to January or even March 2026. The probabilities for a
December hike rose a little to 30% recently as speculation of a possible hike
due to the fast yen depreciation strengthened. USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY continues to pull back from the highs after a strong rally
where we almost reached the 158.00 handle. We can see that we have an upward
trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline
with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into the 160.00 handle.
The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the
pullback into the 154.00 level.USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, there’s
not much else we can add here as the buyers will have a better risk to reward
setup around the trendline, while the sellers will wait for a downside break to
increase the bearish bets into new lows.USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish
momentum. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep
pushing into the major upward trendline, while the buyers will look for a break
higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming
CatalystsToday we get the weekly ADP jobs data and the US Consumer Confidence
report. We will also get the September US PPI and Retail Sales reports. Tomorrow,
we get the most recent US Jobless Claims figures and the September Durable
Goods Orders report. On Thursday, we have the US Thanksgiving holiday, while on
Friday we conclude the week with the Tokyo CPI report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The USD’s recent stall amid rising December rate cut odds is a key signal for traders. With the odds now at 70%, traders need to reassess their positions, especially in USD pairs. The dovish tone from Fed’s Williams suggests a shift in monetary policy that could impact not just the USD but also equities and commodities. If the FOMC meeting confirms these cuts, we might see a significant depreciation of the dollar, which could boost gold and other safe havens. Watch for any economic data releases leading up to the meeting, as they could sway sentiment and volatility. A break below key support levels in the USD could trigger further selling, while a failure to cut rates might lead to a short squeeze in USD longs. Keep an eye on the 1.05 level in EUR/USD as a potential breakout point for bullish sentiment in the Eurozone. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility as we approach the FOMC meeting, with the potential for rapid shifts in market sentiment based on any new data.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the 1.05 level in EUR/USD and prepare for volatility as the FOMC meeting approaches, especially with a 70% chance of a December rate cut.
