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Thanksgiving week means a slew of data releases Tuesday and Wednesday from the US and perhaps little movement after mid-week in FX markets that still have one eye on the Fed and another on the trend in US tech stocks, Scotiabank’s FX strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
💡 DMK Insight
Thanksgiving week could lead to low volatility in FX markets, and here’s why that matters: With key data releases scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, traders should brace for potential market reactions, especially if the figures deviate from expectations. The focus remains on the Fed’s monetary policy and its impact on the dollar, while tech stocks’ performance could influence risk sentiment. If tech continues to rally, we might see a stronger dollar, which could pressure currencies like the euro and yen. But, with many traders likely to be sidelined for the holiday, any moves could be exaggerated. It’s also worth noting that the lack of liquidity could lead to sharper price swings. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming data releases, particularly any surprises that could shift the Fed’s narrative. Watch for key levels in major pairs; for example, if the euro breaks below 1.05, it could signal further weakness. Overall, this week presents a mixed bag of opportunities and risks, so staying alert to the data and market reactions is crucial.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor key US data releases this week; a surprise could lead to significant moves in major FX pairs, especially if the euro tests the 1.05 level.
