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USD/CNY: Gradual downside seen with tariff shifts – MUFG

Michael Wan at MUFG argues that changes in US tariff implementation and a weaker Dollar backdrop support a gradual move lower in USD/CNY. China is seen as a relative beneficiary versus some Asian exporters as effective tariffs on Chinese exports are expected to fall.

🔗 Source

💡 DMK Insight

The potential for a weaker Dollar could be a game-changer for USD/CNY traders. With Michael Wan’s insights on US tariff changes, the backdrop suggests a gradual decline in USD/CNY, which could benefit China against other Asian exporters. This shift is crucial as it aligns with broader economic trends where a weaker Dollar typically boosts export competitiveness. Traders should keep an eye on the 7.00 level for USD/CNY; a sustained break below could trigger further selling pressure. Additionally, watch for any news on tariff implementations, as these could create volatility in the forex market. On the flip side, if the Dollar strengthens unexpectedly due to economic data or geopolitical tensions, it could reverse this trend. So, while the outlook leans bearish for USD/CNY, remain cautious of potential Dollar rebounds that could catch traders off guard.

📮 Takeaway

Monitor the 7.00 level for USD/CNY; a break below could signal further declines, especially with tariff changes on the horizon.

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