NFP likely has been overstated since April 2024 by c.60k per month owing to birth-death adjustments. Actual job growth likely was much weaker in 2024 than the market had initially perceived.
💡 DMK Insight
NFP numbers are likely inflated, and here’s why that matters: a potential misreading of job growth could shake market confidence. If the actual job growth is weaker than the perceived figures, we might see a shift in market sentiment, particularly in sectors sensitive to employment data. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming economic releases and adjust their positions accordingly. A downward revision in job growth could lead to volatility in related assets like the USD and equities, especially if the market has been pricing in stronger growth. Watch for reactions in the forex market, particularly against the Euro and Yen, as traders reassess their outlook based on this new information. Here’s the flip side: if the market continues to ignore these adjustments, we could see a sharp correction when the reality sets in. So, keep your charts open and monitor the NFP releases closely; any significant deviation from expectations could trigger a cascade of selling in over-leveraged positions.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for upcoming NFP releases; a significant downward revision could trigger volatility in the USD and related markets.





