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Prior 130K revise to 126Knonfarm payroll -92K vs +50 9K estimateDecember was 48K. November was 41K Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.3% expected. Prior month 4.3%. Average hourly earnings 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. Prior month 0.4% average hourly earnings YoY 3.8% versus 3.7% expected. Prior month 3.7%. Participation rate 62.0% versus 62.1% (revise from 62.5%)U6 unemployment rate 7.9% versus 8.1% (revised from 8.0%)Looking at the details by different sector:February employment change by sector (strongest → weakest)Financial activities: +10K (Jan -30K)Other services: +8K (Jan +8K)Wholesale trade: +6K (Jan +3K)Retail trade: +2K (Jan +11K)Utilities: +1K (Jan 0K)Mining & logging: -2K (Jan -2K)Professional & business services: -5K (Jan +18K)Transportation & warehousing: -11K (Jan -12K)Construction: -11K (Jan +48K)Information: -11K (Jan -19K)Manufacturing: -12K (Jan +5K)Leisure & hospitality: -27K (Jan -12K)Private education & health services: -34K (Jan +129K)Sector totalsGoods-producing: -25K (Jan +51K)Private service-providing: -61K (Jan +95K)Key takeaway:
The biggest positive contributor in February was financial activities, while the largest declines came from private education & health services and leisure & hospitality, which swung sharply lower from strong gains in January.There is some weather issues. There was some strike effects of around -30K (which will come back). Perhaps seasonals are tough especially with an aging population. Immigration has virtually stopped. AI may be starting to show its ugly face, but overall the number is much weaker than expectations.The market has sent the yields lower with the 10 year down -2.0 basis points to 4.125%. The yield was up about 2.5% in premarket trading.US stocks have moved to the downside with the S&P down -74 points the Dow Industrial Average is down -525 points in the NASDAQ index is down -334 points.The USD has moved lower but is rebounding.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The latest nonfarm payroll data just dropped, and it’s a mixed bag that traders need to unpack. With the revision of prior payrolls from 130K to 126K and a surprising drop of 92K against an expected rise of 50K, the labor market’s strength is under scrutiny. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, slightly above expectations, which could signal a cooling economy. On the flip side, average hourly earnings rose by 0.4%, indicating wage growth is still robust, potentially fueling inflation concerns. This could impact the Fed’s next moves, especially if they perceive the labor market as weakening. Traders should watch for volatility in related markets, particularly in equities and forex, as this data could influence interest rate expectations. Here’s the thing: while the labor market shows signs of strain, the wage growth might keep inflation fears alive. Keep an eye on the S&P 500 and USD pairs, especially if they react to these figures. Watch for key levels around the 4,000 mark on the S&P and how the dollar index responds in the coming days, as these could set the tone for market sentiment moving forward.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the S&P 500 around the 4,000 level and watch the dollar index for potential volatility following this mixed jobs report.
