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Prior was +64K (revised to +56K)October was -105K (revised to -173K)Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.5% expectedPrior unemployment rate 4.6%Unrounded unemployment 4.375% vs 4.564% priorParticipation rate 62.4% vs 62.5% priorU6 underemployment rate 8.4% vs 8.7% priorAverage hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expectedAverage hourly earnings +3.8% y/y vs +3.6% expectedAverage weekly hours 34.2 vs 34.3 expectedChange in private payrolls +37K vs +64K expectedChange in manufacturing payrolls -8K vs -5K expectedGovernment payrolls +27K vs -5K in NovemberThe market was pricing in a 12% chance of a January rate cut before the data and a 40% chance of a cut at the March meeting. For the year, there were 54.7 bps of easing priced in. The US 10-year yield was at 4.187% and USD/JPY was trading at 157.57.The US dollar is mostly lower on this as it reacts to the headline and the poor revisions. I would argue that the market was priced for an upside surprise given that most of the pre-jobs employment numbers were upbeat. The good news in the report is the fall in the unemployment rate, which — without rounding fell nearly 0.2 pp, though a chunk of that was due to people dropping out of the labor force.In terms of markets, USD/JPY is quickly down to 157.44 in a broad USD selloff. S&P 500 futures are up 22 points and 10-year yields are unchanged from prior to the report.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The latest jobs report shows a mixed bag, and here’s why it matters: unemployment dipped to 4.4%, but revisions to prior months paint a concerning picture for economic momentum. The downward revision of September’s job gains from +64K to +56K and October’s from -105K to -173K suggests that the labor market isn’t as robust as it appeared. A participation rate of 62.4% indicates that fewer people are entering the workforce, which could signal a lack of confidence in job availability. The U6 underemployment rate dropping to 8.4% is a silver lining, but it’s still higher than desired. Average hourly earnings rising by 0.3% month-over-month aligns with expectations, but the year-over-year increase of 3.8% outpaces the previous 3.6%, hinting at inflationary pressures that could influence the Fed’s next moves. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, as these employment figures could sway interest rate decisions. Watch for key levels in related markets, especially in equities and bonds, as volatility may spike if the Fed signals a shift in policy based on these labor metrics.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the Fed’s response to the mixed jobs data, especially if unemployment trends worsen or inflation pressures persist, as this could impact interest rates and market volatility.
