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Prior 5.1%Employment change 82k vs 30k expectedPrior -16kAverage weekly earnings +4.7% vs +4.6% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.7%; revised to +4.8%Average weekly earnings ex bonus +4.5% vs +4.5% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.6%December payrolls change -43kPrior -38k; revised to -33kAs a general reminder, the UK labour market report is still one plagued by data quality issues. And that looks set to continue further as outlined here last week: UK statistics office evaluates potential delay to its overhauled jobs survey – reportThe jobless rate holds steady at just above 5% in November but payrolls in December continues to fall further. And the latter underscores the continued softening in UK labour market conditions alongside the slow climb in the unemployment rate last year.Wages data continue to hold up somewhat, only reflecting a marginal drop from October. And with consumer prices still holding more stubborn, it’s keeping the BOE on edge in trying to decide what to do next on the policy front.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The UK labor market data just dropped, and it’s a mixed bag that traders need to unpack. The employment change came in at 82k, significantly above the expected 30k, which suggests a stronger labor market than anticipated. However, the December payrolls were revised down to -33k, indicating potential underlying weaknesses. Average weekly earnings are holding steady at +4.7%, but this is still a concern for inflationary pressures. For traders, this data could influence the Bank of England’s next moves, especially if they see continued strength in employment but rising inflation. Watch for how this plays into GBP pairs, particularly GBP/USD, as it could lead to volatility around key levels. If GBP/USD breaks above recent resistance, it could signal a bullish trend, but any signs of weakness could lead to a sharp pullback. Here’s the thing: while the headline numbers look good, the revisions and mixed signals could lead to uncertainty. Keep an eye on the next inflation report and how the market reacts to this data, as it could set the tone for the next few weeks.
📮 Takeaway
Watch GBP/USD closely; a break above recent resistance could signal a bullish trend, but mixed labor data suggests caution ahead.
