The S&P 500 falls back to a key support as optimism fades after Trump's speech

FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEWThe S&P 500 gave back
most of the gains accumulated since Tuesday when Trump said that he would be
open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition.
Later that day we also had the Iranian President saying that they were ready to
end the war but wanted guarantees.The catalyst for the
selloff was Trump’s address to the nation where he was expected to give an “important”
update on the US-Iran war. Unfortunately, Trump
disappointed the market as he just repeated the same old stuff and kept his
hawkish bias. The market wrongly ignored
yesterday’s news ahead of the speech. In fact, Trump posted this on Truth
Social:“Iran’s New Regime
President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his
predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We
will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are
blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!
President DJT”Trump self-imposed a 5-day
ceasefire last week, then extended it by another 10 days (set to expire on
April 6). At the same time, he made it clear that any ceasefire would depend on
reopening the Strait, despite having downplayed that condition just a day
earlier. He also ended his message with the usual threats.Moreover, the White House
indicated ahead of the speech that Trump would reiterate a 2–3 week timeline
for ending the war. That stretches well beyond the current ceasefire window,
leaving plenty of room for tensions to escalate again. This should keep the market
under pressure (all else being equal).S&P 500
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn
the daily chart, we can see that
the S&P 500 dropped back to the key
6,530 support zone. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined
risk below the support to position for a rally into the trendline. The sellers,
on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bearish bets into the
6,363 level.S&P 500
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn
the 4 hour chart, there’s not
much we can glean from this timeframe as the buyers will look for a bounce on
the support, while the sellers will wait for a break. We need to zoom in to see
some more details.S&P 500 TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we
have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish move. If we get a pullback
into the trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with a defined risk
above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will
look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the major trendline
around the 6,670 level. The red lines define average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude
the week with the US NFP report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

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