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The Fed blackout is hours away; Jefferson says he doesn't want to pre-judge Jan decision

The Fed’s Jefferson is out with a speech late in the day but he isn’t giving much away:Some upside risks remain, but expect inflation to return to path back to 2%Inflation somewhat elevated, rise in core good prices inconsistent with return to 2% inflationCautiously optimistic for 2026, though face risks to both employment, price stability goalsPleased to see increased use of standing repo operations when economically sensibleExpect 2% economic growth in near term, unemployment rate to hold steady this yearFed rate cuts since 2024 have brought policy rate into range consistent with neutralCurrent policy stance leaves us well positioned to determine how much and when to adjust policy rateAs layoffs remain low, hiring remains lowDo not want to prejudge January rate-setting decisionIt sounds like he’s inclined to cut rates later in the year. It would hardly make waves if he argued for holding on Jan 28 as that outcome is 95% priced into markets. In November, he said they should proceed slowly and then earlier this month he characterized the policy rate in a “range consistent with neutral”, something he repeated today.Quotables:I am starting 2026 with a cautiously optimistic point of view.
Conditions in the labor market appear to be stabilizing, and I see the
economy as well positioned to continue to grow while inflation returns
to a pathway toward our 2 percent objectiveMore:What is inconsistent with a return to 2 percent inflation is the rise in core good prices….y view that inflation will resume a path toward our goal is consistent
with near-term measures of inflation expectations declining from their
peaks last year, as reflected in both market- and survey-based measures.
And most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with
our 2 percent inflation goal.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

🔗 Source

💡 DMK Insight

The Fed’s Jefferson just hinted at a cautious approach to inflation, and here’s why that matters: Traders should pay close attention to the implications of his remarks on interest rates and market sentiment. With inflation still elevated and core goods prices showing inconsistency, the Fed’s cautious optimism for 2026 suggests that any rate hikes might be slower than anticipated. This could lead to a more volatile trading environment, especially for assets sensitive to interest rate changes like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies. If inflation doesn’t stabilize, we could see a shift in market dynamics, impacting everything from forex pairs to commodity prices. Look for key levels in the S&P 500 and major currency pairs that could react to these signals. If the market starts pricing in prolonged uncertainty, traders might want to consider protective strategies or look for short opportunities in overvalued sectors. Keep an eye on the upcoming economic data releases that could further inform the Fed’s stance and adjust your positions accordingly.

📮 Takeaway

Watch for inflation data releases and key levels in the S&P 500; prolonged uncertainty could lead to volatility in tech stocks and crypto markets.

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