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Let’s not beat around the bush here. As inflation fears come back into the picture, suddenly major central banks have a challenge up ahead of them in the coming weeks/months. And there will be plenty of watchful eyes and scrutiny on them next week, with a full slate on the agenda. The full list can be found below:Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting decision – 17 MarchBank of Canada meeting (BOC) decision – 18 MarchFederal Reserve (Fed) FOMC meeting decision – 18 MarchBank of Japan (BOJ) meeting decision – 19 MarchSwiss National Bank (SNB) meeting decision – 19 MarchBank of England (BOE) meeting decision – 19 MarchEuropean Central Bank (ECB) meeting decision – 19 MarchYup, the only one missing is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand – who will only return to the fray on 8 April next. That aside, it is going to be a jam-packed three days in the week ahead.That being said, there might not be too much drama in terms of rate decisions. The only central bank that could take action is arguably the RBA. Deputy governor Hauser’s remarks here yesterday have certainly reignited the debate for a potential rate hike next week.And we’re starting to see market pricing reflect that sentiment as well. The odds of a rate hike next week were at ~35% before he spoke but have jumped up now to ~71%. And that is also seeing the aussie dollar surge higher, with AUD/USD breaking new ground this week in a jump to 0.7170 currently.The US-Iran conflict is threatening stronger price pressures at a time when the RBA is already struggling to pin down inflation. So, policymakers might feel the need to get ahead of the curve.Of note, NAB, Deutsche, and Morgan Stanley have all shifted their calls and are penciling in a rate hike for next week now.So, that will be a key decision to watch.As for the other major central banks, the rate decisions will be less interesting with no changes expected across the board. The only main thing to watch will be how policymakers respond to possibly higher inflation to come.Will they revert back to what we saw back in 2021-22 in dismissing it all as “transitory”? That was a mistake at the time, so it will be interesting to see if history will repeat itself.But considering that we’re just less than two weeks into the conflict, I would expect central banks to play for flexibility. And that means reaffirming a wait-and-see approach and not jumping to conclusions on how price developments are going to change. They will definitely acknowledge the risks of higher oil prices and inflation to come, but they won’t prematurely commit to anything so early on.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
đź’ˇ DMK Insight
Inflation fears are creeping back, and central banks are on the hot seat. As traders, we need to pay attention to how these inflation concerns could influence interest rates and monetary policy. If central banks signal a hawkish stance, we might see volatility in both the forex and crypto markets. For instance, a stronger dollar could pressure crypto prices, especially if traders flock to safer assets. Keep an eye on key economic indicators like CPI and PPI in the coming weeks; these will be crucial in shaping market sentiment. But here’s the flip side: if central banks adopt a more dovish approach, we could see a rally in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Watch for any shifts in language from the Fed or ECB that might indicate a pivot. The real story is how these decisions will ripple through the markets, affecting everything from forex pairs to crypto valuations. In the short term, monitor the upcoming central bank meetings closely, as they could set the tone for the next few weeks. Look for any signs of policy changes or unexpected guidance that could catch traders off guard.
đź“® Takeaway
Watch for central bank announcements next week; any hawkish signals could strengthen the dollar and pressure crypto prices.
