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Prior +0.1%Core CPI +0.5% y/yPrior +0.5%Slight delay in the release by the source. The monthly estimate points to another negative reading (-0.1%), missing slightly on estimates this time around. That will be a slight concern looking out to the year ahead. This marks a fifth consecutive negative monthly estimate after recording flat inflation in August last year.That being said, the focus will stay on core inflation. And the monthly estimate there at least shows a +0.1% reading. So, there is a bit of comfort for the SNB in trying to deal with deflation pressures. Core annual inflation is seen steady at +0.5%, so that continues to afford the central bank some breathing room for now.As a reminder, the current backdrop sees the SNB wanting to avoid negative interest rates for as much as they can and for as long as they can get away with. And that means any further significant declines in pressures will be most welcome, at least for the time being.However, a stronger Swiss franc currency is making it very tough for the SNB to try and manage that. EUR/CHF has broken below the 0.92 threshold last month, marking fresh lows for the currency pair.The Swiss central bank has tried ever so hard in preventing excessive franc strength to breach that level since 2024. But amid heightened geopolitical tensions globally and both the dollar and yen falling out of favour as haven currencies, it has made the franc the only safe spot in town for currency traders to hedge against global risks.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
đź’ˇ DMK Insight
Core CPI’s slight miss at +0.5% y/y raises eyebrows for traders: here’s why. The latest Core CPI data showing a +0.5% year-over-year increase, while slightly below expectations, signals persistent inflationary pressures that could influence Fed policy. With five consecutive months of negative readings, traders should be wary of how this trend might impact interest rates and overall market sentiment. If inflation remains sticky, the Fed may have to reconsider its stance on rate hikes, which could lead to volatility in both the forex and crypto markets. Look for key levels around the recent highs in the dollar index and major currency pairs. If the dollar strengthens due to a hawkish Fed response, it could put downward pressure on crypto assets. Conversely, if inflation fears lead to a risk-off sentiment, we might see a flight to safety, impacting equities and crypto alike. Keep an eye on the upcoming Fed meetings and any shifts in market expectations regarding rate hikes, as these will be crucial for positioning in the coming weeks.
đź“® Takeaway
Watch for how the market reacts to the Core CPI miss; key levels to monitor include the dollar index and major currency pairs for potential volatility.
